Week 12, or Clinching of the Three

 Three of our teams have clinched a playoff spot: Hardcore Sacks, Jeff Fisher Effect and Utah Falco. These three now battle for only two first round byes. It's Sacks and The Effect for now. Falco was a long shot, but made up a ton of ground in points this past week, and is within striking distance if he and The Effect finish with the same record. A lot comes down to these last two weeks for those desirable byes.

A lot comes down to the last two weeks for the last three playoff spots too. Let's look at how things shake out for the current 4-6 seeds:

4. Bishop Sycamore Centurions (6-5-1) Final 2 games: HRG, Iron Ryan

5. Death Valley Driver (6-6) Final 2 games: The Effect, Hardcore Sacks

6. Iron Ryan (5-6-1) Final 2 games: Falco, Sycamore

Sycamore is simple: win one of these last two and he's in, thanks to that tie. A 7th win means that even HRG running the table and finishing 7-7 can't get in. (Can you believe that? A awful as HRG has been the last month and a half, he still has an outside shot at the playoffs!) That Week 14 game against I-Ry could potentially be HUGE.

Death Valley Driver basically only misses if he loses his last two games; a single win and he's in. He's got the toughest last two games of anyone, facing the current top 2 seeds and top 2 point scorers. He could still get in at 6-8, but would need I-Ry and HRG to lose out, Boobies (heh) and Provost to each lose one of their final two. 

Iron Ryan needs two wins to lock himself in. At 7-6-1, he could even be the 5 seed (holding the edge over any potential 7-7 teams). A split in his last two games would get him in too, as long as HRG doesn't win out.

Hamilton Rod & Gun (5-7) gets Sycamore and Boobies (heh) in his final two. He could get in if he wins out, finishing 7-7, and I-Ry loses out. There's an interesting scenario where HRG and Boobies (heh) win this week, I-Ry and DVD both lose, which would set up a "must-win and need some help" scenario for Boobies (heh) and HRG to get in. Their chances are pretty low though. But they're not dead.

Boobies (heh) is 4-8, and could get in if he wins out over Pickles and HRG. A loss knocks him out. Ain't nobody getting in at 5-9.

Provost (4-8), the defending champ, plays JFE and Falco his last two weeks, so he's a bigger long shot. BUT theoretically possible. Here's how:

1. Provost wins his final 2, finishing 6-8
2. HRG loses out, finishing 6-8
3. Boobies (heh) beats HRG in Week 14, finishing 6-8 or 5-9
4. I-Ry loses out, finishing 5-8-1
5. Provost maintains his points lead, currently 41.5 over Boobies (heh)

So basically, everyone wants to win this week. Especially Pedro Pickles (4-8). He's mostly trying desperately to improve his positions so as NOT to be The Worst in back-to-back seasons. He's only 4-8, so could finish 6-8. But he's SO FAR behind in points, it's not plausible (he's 55 points behind I-Ry, who has the second fewest points, and 119 behind fellow 4-8 Team Provost).

What Would The Commish Want?

I think it would be hilarious if Sycamore loses and I-Ry wins this week, and then they tie again in Week 14, both finishing 6-6-2. I believe the technical term for that would be a "fustercluck." I think they would both get in and it would come down to points, where they are currently separated by...

ONE POINT!

God, that would be fun.

So let's let the Week 13 fun commence, shall we?

Week 11, or Playoff Ch-ch-ch-ch-chaaaanngggeeeeesssss!

 So, not to toot my own horn, but I think I was right on the call of the Game of the Week last week. HRG topped I-Ry in a game that....well, let's just say that it looked like a Thursday Night Football game: two teams trying their hardest, but putting out a shitty product. HRG scored 82.5 points for the second week in a row, and hasn't topped that number in 5 weeks! Yet, somehow, he's 2-3 in that stretch, and sitting in the #5 spot in the playoffs. I-Ry, meanwhile, fell to the #7 spot. It's going to be super interesting to see how that tie affects his playoff position. According to ESPN's Playoff % (which I find fascinating), neither of these teams is likely to make the playoffs.

The most likely to make the playoffs by that ESPN metric our current #6 seed, Death Valley Driver (listed at 63%). I think we can chalk a lot of that up to Jonathan Taylor. Interesting note about DVD's scoring this year: he has a single game with a score in the 90s, and zero games with a score in the 110s or 120s. His spread is CRAZY: going as low as 68.5 and as high at 154.5. He's the kind of boom or bust team you don't really want to face in the playoffs, especially because of that Taylor guy.

DVD walked all over Sycamore this week, and Sycamore is an interesting case too. The tie for him might actually keep him in the playoffs (he's currently 4th with a 99% ESPN playoff chance). He's 6-4-1, and has only two games over 100 points in his last 6 matchups. If he's equal to another team in wins, he'll have the advantage because he'll have one less loss. He's been getting by on some luck. Another stroke of it this week: he gets the hapless Pedro Pickles.

Pickles has the inside track on The Worst this year. He's had tough luck with injuries, and he's decided to rely on Dak and the Cowboys. They suck. Pickles hasn't even gotten to 75 points in four weeks. He's got the fewest points in the league, and it's not particularly close (he's got 1048, next lowest is DVD with 1115). 

Speaking of DVD (yeah, I know I already spoke of him once, but I'm trying to make this smooth, OK?), but he and Boobies (heh) are locked into this week's Game of the Week. This is an important one for both to make the playoffs. I'd say it's slightly more important for Boobies (heh) given his current position of 9th, but he's still got the second highest ESPN Playoff % outside of the Top 4. It could be higher but Boobies (heh) didn't check his lineup pre-game Sunday and left an injured Hollywood Brown in his lineup. 

Tough luck to score the fourth-most points in the league and lose, but that happens sometimes. (just ask HRG. Never mind, don't ask. He'll just tell you.)

That loss for Boobies (heh) came at the hands of The Jeff Fisher Effect, who's run off 6 straight wins. He's on a roll, and looking for one of the two first round playoff byes available. 

JFE's opponent in Week 12 is the other team staring down the bye week, Hardcore Sacks. This would have been the Game of the Week, except that the loser only falls to 8-4, and is likely to still have the bye in place (they're the two highest scoring teams in the league right now). Couple interesting notes about this matchup: Hardcore is the FIRST to 70 wins, thanks to his victory last week. Congrats Hardcore.

He's got the best winning percentage in league history. But you know the ONLY team he has more losses than wins against? Yeah, it's Jeff Fisher Effect. (There's your fun nugget for the day. I've just jinxed myself.)

After Hardcore and JFE, the next two highest scorers are Utah Falco and Team Provost. Falco is 7-4 and faces HRG this week. It's a good spot for him to get a win, especially since he went the first 7 weeks without falling below 100 points, but hasn't topped 92.5 since, and has been trending down in points. A win for him locks him in a playoff spot.

Get it? Locks him in?

At 4-7, Provost needs wins to make the playoffs. He's at a spot where he needs to win out to get in. His point total will likely be a help to him if he gets to 7-7. He gets I-Ry this week, but ends his season with two games against playoff teams (JFE and Falco), so it's an uphill climb.

 So now that I've gotten each team mentioned in this style of Notes (which I swore I would never do again, but here we are), it's time to throw in the bit I throw in every year around this time: I'm thankful for this league. Now in our EIGHTH year, I look forward to this every year. Writing the Notes, talking trash, and following the NFL season continues to be entertaining. And you guys make it fun and worth it every year. So thanks for being everything a Commish could ask for.

Enjoy Week 12. Remember, there are three Thursday games this week, so be sure to check your lineup before you start drinking on Thursday (which I realize for some of you might mean setting an alarm on Thursday morning).

Until next week, STPS!

Week 10, or the poor get poorer

 I'm not sure there's an even numbered week this late in the season where we didn't have a team at .500. The gap between our top and bottom is bigger than my....well, it's big.

Who Won

Three of the top 4 teams won (JFE, Hardcore and Falco). The only reason the fourth didn't win (Sycamore) is because he played another one of the top. And the other winners were Provost and I-Ry, both of whom earned their 4th win (an important one to this point).

Who Lost

HRG, Pickles, DVD, Boobies (heh), and the aforementioned Sycamore lost this week (Readers paying attention already knew that.)

How's it look with four games to go?

If the season ended today, I-Ry and Provost would be the last two teams in. I-Ry gets in because he has one less loss than the other 4-win teams, and Provost because he's got the most points of the 4-win teams (Provost actually has the 4th most points despite his record). But with 4 games to go, no one is out of it. Here's the schedules of the bottom 6, starting at #10:

10. Pedro Pickles (3-7) - Falco, Sycamore, Boobies (heh), Hardcore

It doesn't look real promising for our #10 seed; he gets 3 of the top 4 teams in his last 4 games. AND he probably needs to run the table; he's got the second fewest points. 

9. Death Valley Driver - Sycamore, Boobies, Hardcore, JFE

DVD has the fewest points, but he's also got Jonathan Taylor. He, too, faces a tough schedule, and also likely needs to win out to make it, given his point total.

8. Released Dix On Boobies - JFE, DVD, Pickles, HRG

Boobies seems to be in control of his own fate here: after this week, he's got three games against the Bottom 6. ESPN likes his chances, probably because of the schedule.

7. Hamilton Rod and Gun - I-Ry, Falco, Sycamore, Boobies

It's not looking good for HRG; really ever since he lost Derrick Henry and Calvin Ridley. He's AVERAGING 72.6 points per game over his last four games. He's been falling hard.

6. Team Provost - Hardcore, I-Ry, JFE, Falco

Another real tough slate remaining for Provost, especially after the loss of Aaron Jones for likely the next two games (and no backup in sight).

5. Iron Ryan - HRG, Provost, Falco, Sycamore

That Week 5 tie just might be his ticket to the playoffs. Splitting the last two games is important for him to have a shot, even if it's only for the 6 seed. 

Game of Week 11

I'm gonna say the most important game of the week is I-Ry vs. HRG. The winner really improves their playoff odds, while the loser's hopes take a big hit. 

So let's get it on. Starting on Thursday with Falcons-Patriots.

See you next week!

Week 9, or "That was a weird one"

So Week 9....

It sure was. For the second straight week, we only had 3 teams top the 100-point mark. And we also had an absolute pillow fight at the bottom of our league, where neither team broke 80! Oh, my goodness.

RECAPS?

Bishop Sycamore Centurions takes out Hardcore Sacks, 121.5-91, takes over first place

It was BS's second Tidwell this season, and 15th all-time. He's the all-time leader in Tidwell's...and it's not close; in fact, the second most Tidwell's is actually Hardcore, who's got 10. This week, it was the Lamar Jackson/Patriots D show for BS. It's also kind of an escape for BS, since Chase Edmonds is now injured, but he got David Montgomery back. These two teams seem very likely to make the playoffs.

The Jeff Fisher Effect topples Utah Falco, 116.5-90

It was the Justin Herbert/Nick Chubb show for JFE this week, each player putting up 30+ points. (And then Nick Chubb got COVID). These are two more teams likely to make the playoffs. For Falco, Kirk Cousins was his top scorer, which always makes me want to say: 

Released Dix On Boobies pops Team Provost 115-73.5

Boobies (heh) brought out the balanced scoring attack this week, with only two starters that didn't work into double figures; Joe Mixon led the way with 24.5. Provost, by contrast, had ONE starter get into double figures. As the great John Madden would say, "it's tough to win when you don't score many points." (Though as we'll learn later, it's possible.)Major concern for Boobies (heh) going forward is what will the league do about the new Dalvin Cook news. It's less a concern because he's got Alexander Mattison.

Iron Ryan wins Banville Bowl, beats Death Valley Driver, 87-79

Remember at the draft when we all were thinking "Man, I-Ry's got that Mahomes-Tyreek stack, we're screwed."? Well, that hasn't really happened. The Chiefs haven't been able to put up points like they used to, but this week it didn't matter. DVD had the highest scoring player of the week in Johnathan Taylor, who netted 34 of his 79 points (or 43%). You could add ANY two of I-Ry's players scores together and they wouldn't match Taylor's output. But it's a sum of all parts thing, and DVD had basically no other parts this week.

Hamilton Rod and Gun wins (I guess?) over Pedro Pickles, 74-71.5

Actual footage from this matchup:

A couple weeks ago, I forgot to write about two teams. This week, I wish that were the case. It's interesting to me that both of these teams had scorers in the high-teens, but lacked any sort of depth. Pickles had a starter score 1 point (Khalil Herbert) and one who scored 0 points (Kadarious Toney). HRG had two starters score 0 points (Greg Zeurlein, Cowboys D). 

Playoff Update

The current top 4 seeds (Sycamore, Hardcore, JFE and Falco) seem very likely to make the playoffs with only 5 weeks left. Right now, the 5 and 6 seeds are HRG and Boobies (heh). ESPN's playoff percentage doesn't like HRG's chances ultimately; his bench scored 0 points this week, partly because none of the players on his bench played (only 2 because of a bye week, the other 4 because of injury). Without Derrick Henry or Calvin Ridley, it sure doesn't look good. 

Boobies (heh) is currently the 6 seed, thanks to being the second-highest scoring 4-5 team. He's the only team outside the top 4 with a playoff percentage higher than 50% (he's at 67%). It's still WAY early to lock anything in, but the race for those last two spots looks like it's going to be interesting.

What's Next

So we're off to Week 10. Don't walk...RUN! Just not like Justin Jefferson.

I'm no football expert, but I don't think that's what they're talking about when they say the d-lineman "swam" the blocker. I think usually you "swim" to get OUT of the block, not just before making the block.

Week 8, or On We Go

 So, because it's midseason (or real close, since there's an extra week this year) click on this to keep in the mood while you read through this week's Notes:

So we're starting to get a little separation in the standings, and we're also starting to get some injuries that are rendering a couple of teams basically helpless. It's a pretty tough spot to be in, and COVID sure ain't helping.

Also interesting to note: only 3 teams topped 100 points this week, which is 7 fewer than three weeks ago. This week was also our lowest total league points for a week this year. I feel like we have one of these weeks every year. There's a high outlier and a low outlier. Week 5 was 1306.5 points (or 179 higher than the second highest week); Week 8 was 963.5 points (84.5 points lower than the second lowest week. All these stats are kept on this Google Sheet. 

RECAPS!

Team Provost climbs to 6th, tops Pedro Pickles 130-85.5

It's Provost's first Tidwell of the season, which is helping him lead the pack of 3-5 teams, thanks to being the 4th highest scoring team in the entire league. And this year, that sixth spot is a playoff spot, so teams will be angling to get there (the 6-10 seeds all currently have 5 losses, so there will be some major jockeying). He boasts the current QB2, WR2 and the K1, all of whom had good weeks this week. Pickles has had tough luck with QBs (trading for Dak followed by Dak missing a game is a tough pill to swallow), but has had good luck with his waiver wire pickups. He's still in the hunt for that 6th spot.

Hardcore Sacks takes sole possession of first, beats Utah Falco 118-90.5

As it's been almost every other week for Hardcore, it was Cooper Kupp szn. He's the overall WR1 and there's no sign of slowing down. Once CMC comes back (he's been designated to return from IR) the rest of the league will be effed. At least until he gets hurt again. For Falco, it's the first time all year he hasn't topped the century mark for points. These two teams are probably the deepest we have in the league this year. But Falco just made some bad lineup decisions this week.

Jeff Fisher Effect escapes MNF, takes out Iron Ryan, 104-99.5

It was a 104-60.5 lead going into Monday Night Football, and I-Ry had Mahomie and Tyreek. JFE figured, "it's over." But I'm old enough to remember when the Chiefs offense was unstoppable. This year, that's not the case. I mean....20 points? Against the Giants? Wow. JFE is the third highest scoring team to this point, and got big days from Darrell Henderson and Chris Godwin. Her'es actual footage of JFE on Tuesday morning, checking the score:

Death Valley Driver vanquishes Hamilton Rod and Gun, 95-60.5

I'd say DVD had one of those weeks where he scored a low total and won because he played the right opponent, but in this case, he had the 4th highest total of the season. It is interesting to note that he's 4-4 and has scored the FEWEST points in the league (811.5), while Provost has almost 100 more points, and a worse record. But ultimately, it's about wins. Win have been harder for HRG to come by, and figure to be harder to come by for a bit. Kyler Murray is injured, Davante Adams has/had COVID, Calvin Ridley needs a mental health season, and the one guy you never expected to get injured (Derrick Henry) finally got injured. HRG is in trouble.

Bishop Sycamore pulls off Monday Night comeback, best Released Dix On Boobies, 91.5-89

Trailing by 30 going into Monday Night Football, it seemed a tall order for BS to come back. But then the Giants managed to keep the game close, and Daniel Jones and Devontae Booker took just enough advantage of a bad KC D that let Sycamore pull off his second come from behind Monday night non-loss. That doesn't sound very impressive, but it's really the difference between Sycamore being in second place (where he is right now) and fourth place (where he'd be without that Monday night come-from-behind tie). He's got a leg up in the playoff race. Now if only his players stay healthy. Boobies (heh) certainly could have used some more production from Dalvin Cook, but got a bunch from Joe Mixon and Amari Cooper. 

Standings and Playoff Stuff

So I don't know if ESPN had this in previous years, but they have a playoff percentage on the standings page. Right now, the top 4 teams (Hardcore, Sycamore, Falco, The Effect) have no worse than a 96% chance to make the playoffs. After that, Boobies (heh) has the highest remaining percentage at 46% (which is odd when you consider he's currently 9th of 10, having the lowest point total of the 3-5 teams). I'd be pretty interested to know how ESPN figures this. I assume there's something to do with the league schedule and projections for the rest of the season. 

So we're off to Week 9. Anyone starting Mike White this week?

Come on. The dude even LOOKS like a Madden created player.