But here's at least some kind of Notes. And it's kind of dizzying, so maybe read this in the morning after a cup of coffee.
Last week: DVD won the Tidwell. Dancin’ Dennis clinched a playoff spot. Hardcore clinched too, even after a heartbreaking loss thanks to the return of Provost Magic.
This week: DVD and Dancin’ Dennis are fighting for the bye. DVD gets it if he beats Boobies (heh) OR Hardcore beats DDN. DDN gets the bye if he wins, and DVD loses.
If Hardcore wins, he can get to the 3 seed. He can be as low as the 6 seed, but he’s in the playoffs.
The real intrigue is the last 2 spots, where 5 teams have a mathematical chance.
Let’s see the points:
Pickles- 1357
Falco - 1323
Provost - 1287
Boobies (heh) - 1255
Gravy Train - 1251.5
Gravy Train needs the most help; he can get in with a win, and a loss by Pickles and Provost. He only trails Boobies (heh) in points by a few, so he can still get in even if Boobies (heh) wins. This is the mathiest scenario. It’s possible, but kind of unlikely.
Boobies (heh) can get in with a win, but he needs Gravy Train to win (to take out Falco’s point advantage), Pickles and Provost to lose, AND he needs to make up the 32 point deficit between he and Provost. Again, possible, but kind of unlikely.
Falco can get in if he wins and a) Provost loses or b) Pickles loses and he can make up the point difference (34 behind). It all starts with a win for Falco; a loss knocks him out.
Speaking of wins, Pickles and Provost are in the driver’s seats; win and they’re in. If they both win, they take all the drama of tiebreakers out of it. Each would get to 7-7 and would take over the 4 and 5 seed, knocking Hardcore down to the 6 (it’s all in the points, people).
If Pickles wins and Provost loses, Provost could still win a tiebreaker, but he’d probably need Falco to lose (since Falco has 70 more points).
If Provost wins and Pickles loses, Pickles still has the advantage on Cusick and his points (34, as previously mentioned), so he could still get in.
Each could still get in with a loss, but then it’s up to the points. We'd have 3 teams at 6-8, and only 2 could get in. Both would likely get in if Gravy Train beats Falco. If Falco wins, it would probably mean Provost is the odd man out.
According to ESPN right now, Pickles' playoff percentage is 86%, while Provost sits at 62%. Falco is sitting at 31%.
Seriously how I feel right now. There's so much in the air because both the records and the points are so close. I'm gonna try to sleep now. Hopefully there won't be a lot of numbers running through my head.
Coming off Week 3, there seems to be some cream rising to the top. It's too early to make a whole lot of it, but dammit if I'm not gonna try to find SOMETHING to talk about.
The Jeff Fisher Effect wins slugfest over Utah Falco, 161.5-129.5
You knew these two teams were going big after the 1:00 games. The Dolphins-Broncos game brought out some weirdness: 41.5 points for Raheem Mostert (JFE) and 28 for Tua (Falco). And the Vikings-Chargers game added 55 points for The Effect (Justin Herbert and Justin Jefferson) and 37 for Falco (Keenan Allen). Following his theme from Week 1, Falco won the battle of the benches here (50-40.5).
Released Dix on Boobies smothers Gravy Train, 141.5-85.5
It didn't look like this matchup would turn into the blowout it did after the usual slate of Sunday games. But then Davante Adams put up 36.5 points. For Gravy Train, it's tough to compete when the other team has FIVE players score higher than your highest player.
Dancin' Dennis Swifties pops Team Provost, 136.5-114
Oh, look what the Travis Kelce/Taylor Swift relationship made Dancin' Dennis do. Ja'Marr Chase and Zach Moss (two names I never really thought I'd put next to each other in this context) did their best to keep Provost in it, but the difference here was in the middle players. From here though, I know Dancin' Dennis is in trouble after the loss of Mike Williams. But he's spent so much of his FAAB to this point adding depth, he might be able to shake it off. I hope there won't be any bad blood when he gets outbid on players later in the year. Don't blame me that you only get $100 FAAB dollars.
Also, congratulations to Provost on his wedding, adding to his own personal Love Story.
Pedro Pickles whips Iron Ryan, 124.5-92.5
Iron Ryan had the highest scoring player in this one (the Bill defense at 31 points) but with only 2 other players in double figures, he couldn't keep up with Lamar Jackson (27) and Deebo (22). It's gonna be tough for I-Ry with two members of the Falcons offense.
Hardcore Sacks takes out Death Valley Driver, 116-111.5
It occurred to me that this game almost ended in a tie, and was basically only a Jalen Hurts tush push touchdown from a tie. It's also the second straight week DVD had 116 points score against him (following his tie last week). Hardcore's roster looks a bit like a dynasty roster; a whole lotta rookies, following Nick Chubb's knee injury. I'd say these two teams are firmly in the middle of the pack.
Holy point scoring, Batman!
Week 3 was the third highest scoring week in league history (or at least since 2017). It's only the fourth time we've ever crossed the 1200-point threshold in a single week.
Week 5, 2021 - 1306 points (123.25 median score)
Week 1, 2019 - 1217 points (117.5 median score)
Week 3, 2023 - 1213 points (120.25 median score)
Week 12, 2018 - 1200 points (121.5 median score)
Week 5 in 2021 had 5 teams score more than 150 points, with a lowest score of 105. Week 1 in 2019 had a high score of 173.5, and a low of 97. Week 12 of 2018 saw three scores over 140, nine teams in triple digits, and a low of 75.
Week 3 of 2023 saw 8 teams in triple digits, and a low score of 85.5. It's also pretty wild to see a swing of 294 points from Week 1 (919 points).
Congratulations are in order....
Also wanted to send a quick congratulations to Provost on his wedding this weekend. Maybe your opponent (Hardcore) will gift you a victory on your special weekend.
The rest of us? Well, we'll have to earn them. See you out there!
Hey, you guys remember that Staples commercial from the late 90s?
That’s how I usually feel about Week 1. It’s fantasy football time.
Everyone thinks their team is going to be good. Happiness! The most wonderful time of the year!
And then: everything comes crashing down. Man, the NFL really does
change a TON every year, doesn’t it?
Aaron Rodgers made it 4 plays in a Jets career that had SO MUCH hype.
Four plays! Aside from the fact that I can’t throw a football more than 10
yards in the air (probably), I feel like I could have lasted more plays. (This
is likely the same kind of hubris as this guy, but waaaay less sexist.)
I’m guessing many of you in the league thought “hey, my team may not
be the best, but it should compete.” And then…
Only two teams broke 100 points this week. (More on the history aspect
later) The second highest scoring player on the week was a defense (sorry to
all your Giants fans. I hope you went to bed early because….damn.)
Jeff Fisher Effect won the first Tidwell of the season, thanks to that
Cowboys defensive performance. I’m considering donating the $10 winnings for
the week to the Gene and Jerry Jones Family Foundation (not really, they don't need the money). Death Valley Driver got
more points from Tyreek Hill, and had he won, I would have suggested he donate
the money to the Tyreek Hill Foundation Against Domestic Violence (which does
not exist).
It was not a good week for Iron Ryan or Dancin’ Dennis Nedry, as each failed to break 70 points. It’s
early, but they both fired some big shots in the FAAB department; I-Ry added
Gus Edwards on the heels of the JK Dobbins injury, and DDN added Kyren Williams
and Kenneth Gainwell. Gainwell will be immediately as useful as the player he
dropped Rashaad Penny was, thanks to an injury.
I also appreciate that I-Ry added Dicker the Kicker.
It was an interesting week for the teams not yet mentioned, who scored
between 99 and 82.5 points. Luckily for Pedro Pickles (he, of the 82.5), he got
matched against DDN.
It’s going to be interesting to see what happens in Week 2!
Historic Week 1?
I thought Week 1 was weird from a scoring standpoint. Because it’s
what I do, I went back and looked.
Year
Teams over 100 pts Week 1
2014*
3 (8 team league)
2015
6
2016
7
2017
1
2018
6
2019
9 (only Nate missed, with 97)
2020
6
2021
6
2022
5
So definitely a weird Week 1 for scoring. It looks like Week 15 of
2018 was the last time we had so few teams over 100 points. If you remember,
that was probably the weirdest scoring week in, like, fantasy history. Pepperidge
Farm remembers. So do Kevin and Tim.
I’ll set the over/under on teams getting to 100 in Week 2 at 5.5.
Historical Bench
In this weeks’ GroupMe chat – after a week where he picked a LOT of wrong
players for his lineup – Utah Falco asked about the bench scoring. Again, I went
back and looked. I don’t have historical bench data from the first three years
of the league. By the time I started wanting to track the data, ESPN had only
made only the starting lineups scores available in the league history. However,
I have all the bench data from 2017-2023. Here are the bench totals all-time:
Bench
Kyle
4,221
Tim
4,132.5
Cusick
3,993
Nate
3,859
Nash
3,757.5
Provost
3,674.5
Pete
3,585
Kevin
3,479.5
Chris
3,261.5
Ryan
3,007
Note our man Cusick, sitting there in third place. I’d argue he’s the
outlier in the top 5, as each of the other managers in the top 5 have winning
records all-time. Here are the all-time records:
Win
Loss
Tie
Win %
Tim
86
57
1
0.597
Kevin
77
64
4
0.531
Provost
74
69
2
0.510
Nate
73
69
1
0.510
Nash
74
68
3
0.510
Pete
66
62
0
0.516
Kyle
65
64
0
0.504
Cusick
63
81
1
0.434
Chris
63
82
0
0.434
Ryan
60
83
2
0.414
Notice that Cusick has the third worst record all-time, but the third
HIGHEST bench points. Now, making the comparison based on record when there’s 9
years of win-loss data, but only 6 years of total point data doesn’t give a
good comparison. So let’s see it based solely on point totals since 2017 (including
this past week 1).
Points by STARTERS since 2017
Starters
Tim
10,731.5
Nash
10,609.5
Nate
10,411.5
Kyle
10,352.5
Pete
10,268.5
Provost
10,185.5
Kevin
10,177.5
Cusick
9,772.5
Chris
9,687.5
Ryan
9,129.5
Points by BENCH since 2017
Bench
Kyle
4,221
Tim
4,132.5
Cusick
3,993
Nate
3,859
Nash
3,757.5
Provost
3,674.5
Pete
3,585
Kevin
3,479.5
Chris
3,261.5
Ryan
3,007
Bench points as a percentage of total points since 2017:
% of Total
Cusick
29.01%
Kyle
28.96%
Tim
27.80%
Nate
27.04%
Provost
26.51%
Nash
26.15%
Pete
25.88%
Kevin
25.48%
Chris
25.19%
Ryan
24.78%
What does this all tell us:
In theory, this data tells us that Ryan is statistically the best
lineup setter in our league. When dealing with what he’s got on his roster, he
gets the most out of his lineup. The problem is: his teams generally suck.
We also notice that the top 4 STARTER point scorers over the sample
size (Tim, Nash, Nate, Kyle) are also in the top 5 in BENCH scoring (Tim 2nd,
Nate 4th, Nash 5th, Kyle 1st). So it’s perhaps
as much an indicator of a strong roster as it is on lineup setting.
Which leaves us with Cusick: 7th most points from his
starters, but 3rd most from his bench.
Here’s the total points since 2017:
Total
Tim
14,864
Kyle
14,573.5
Nash
14,367
Nate
14,270.5
Provost
13,860
Pete
13,853.5
Cusick
13,765.5
Kevin
13,657
Chris
12,949
Ryan
12,136.5
Of the top 5 in total points since 2017, only ONE does NOT have a
championship in that time frame (sorry to point it out, Nash), and two of the
top 5 have two titles.
Cusick wanted to say he’s “the best” at something. And, I think I’d
agree: given all these factors he’s “the best” as setting a bad lineup.
Here Comes Week 2!
Week 2 is starting right now (seriously, the Eagles and the Vikings are playing as I type this). If the first quarter is any indication, Week 2 might suck as bad as Week 1. Here's hoping it's not.
