Sorry guys: busy week, so no video.
But here's at least some kind of Notes. And it's kind of dizzying, so maybe read this in the morning after a cup of coffee.
Last week: DVD won the Tidwell. Dancin’ Dennis clinched a playoff spot. Hardcore clinched too, even after a heartbreaking loss thanks to the return of Provost Magic.
This week: DVD and Dancin’ Dennis are fighting for the bye. DVD gets it if he beats Boobies (heh) OR Hardcore beats DDN. DDN gets the bye if he wins, and DVD loses.
If Hardcore wins, he can get to the 3 seed. He can be as low as the 6 seed, but he’s in the playoffs.
The real intrigue is the last 2 spots, where 5 teams have a mathematical chance.
Let’s see the points:
Pickles- 1357
Falco - 1323
Provost - 1287
Boobies (heh) - 1255
Gravy Train - 1251.5
Gravy Train needs the most help; he can get in with a win, and a loss by Pickles and Provost. He only trails Boobies (heh) in points by a few, so he can still get in even if Boobies (heh) wins. This is the mathiest scenario. It’s possible, but kind of unlikely.
Boobies (heh) can get in with a win, but he needs Gravy Train to win (to take out Falco’s point advantage), Pickles and Provost to lose, AND he needs to make up the 32 point deficit between he and Provost. Again, possible, but kind of unlikely.
Falco can get in if he wins and a) Provost loses or b) Pickles loses and he can make up the point difference (34 behind). It all starts with a win for Falco; a loss knocks him out.
Speaking of wins, Pickles and Provost are in the driver’s seats; win and they’re in. If they both win, they take all the drama of tiebreakers out of it. Each would get to 7-7 and would take over the 4 and 5 seed, knocking Hardcore down to the 6 (it’s all in the points, people).
If Pickles wins and Provost loses, Provost could still win a tiebreaker, but he’d probably need Falco to lose (since Falco has 70 more points).
If Provost wins and Pickles loses, Pickles still has the advantage on Cusick and his points (34, as previously mentioned), so he could still get in.
Each could still get in with a loss, but then it’s up to the points. We'd have 3 teams at 6-8, and only 2 could get in. Both would likely get in if Gravy Train beats Falco. If Falco wins, it would probably mean Provost is the odd man out.
According to ESPN right now, Pickles' playoff percentage is 86%, while Provost sits at 62%. Falco is sitting at 31%.
Seriously how I feel right now. There's so much in the air because both the records and the points are so close. I'm gonna try to sleep now. Hopefully there won't be a lot of numbers running through my head.
