But here's at least some kind of Notes. And it's kind of dizzying, so maybe read this in the morning after a cup of coffee.
Last week: DVD won the Tidwell. Dancin’ Dennis clinched a playoff spot. Hardcore clinched too, even after a heartbreaking loss thanks to the return of Provost Magic.
This week: DVD and Dancin’ Dennis are fighting for the bye. DVD gets it if he beats Boobies (heh) OR Hardcore beats DDN. DDN gets the bye if he wins, and DVD loses.
If Hardcore wins, he can get to the 3 seed. He can be as low as the 6 seed, but he’s in the playoffs.
The real intrigue is the last 2 spots, where 5 teams have a mathematical chance.
Let’s see the points:
Pickles- 1357
Falco - 1323
Provost - 1287
Boobies (heh) - 1255
Gravy Train - 1251.5
Gravy Train needs the most help; he can get in with a win, and a loss by Pickles and Provost. He only trails Boobies (heh) in points by a few, so he can still get in even if Boobies (heh) wins. This is the mathiest scenario. It’s possible, but kind of unlikely.
Boobies (heh) can get in with a win, but he needs Gravy Train to win (to take out Falco’s point advantage), Pickles and Provost to lose, AND he needs to make up the 32 point deficit between he and Provost. Again, possible, but kind of unlikely.
Falco can get in if he wins and a) Provost loses or b) Pickles loses and he can make up the point difference (34 behind). It all starts with a win for Falco; a loss knocks him out.
Speaking of wins, Pickles and Provost are in the driver’s seats; win and they’re in. If they both win, they take all the drama of tiebreakers out of it. Each would get to 7-7 and would take over the 4 and 5 seed, knocking Hardcore down to the 6 (it’s all in the points, people).
If Pickles wins and Provost loses, Provost could still win a tiebreaker, but he’d probably need Falco to lose (since Falco has 70 more points).
If Provost wins and Pickles loses, Pickles still has the advantage on Cusick and his points (34, as previously mentioned), so he could still get in.
Each could still get in with a loss, but then it’s up to the points. We'd have 3 teams at 6-8, and only 2 could get in. Both would likely get in if Gravy Train beats Falco. If Falco wins, it would probably mean Provost is the odd man out.
According to ESPN right now, Pickles' playoff percentage is 86%, while Provost sits at 62%. Falco is sitting at 31%.
Seriously how I feel right now. There's so much in the air because both the records and the points are so close. I'm gonna try to sleep now. Hopefully there won't be a lot of numbers running through my head.
Coming off Week 3, there seems to be some cream rising to the top. It's too early to make a whole lot of it, but dammit if I'm not gonna try to find SOMETHING to talk about.
The Jeff Fisher Effect wins slugfest over Utah Falco, 161.5-129.5
You knew these two teams were going big after the 1:00 games. The Dolphins-Broncos game brought out some weirdness: 41.5 points for Raheem Mostert (JFE) and 28 for Tua (Falco). And the Vikings-Chargers game added 55 points for The Effect (Justin Herbert and Justin Jefferson) and 37 for Falco (Keenan Allen). Following his theme from Week 1, Falco won the battle of the benches here (50-40.5).
Released Dix on Boobies smothers Gravy Train, 141.5-85.5
It didn't look like this matchup would turn into the blowout it did after the usual slate of Sunday games. But then Davante Adams put up 36.5 points. For Gravy Train, it's tough to compete when the other team has FIVE players score higher than your highest player.
Dancin' Dennis Swifties pops Team Provost, 136.5-114
Oh, look what the Travis Kelce/Taylor Swift relationship made Dancin' Dennis do. Ja'Marr Chase and Zach Moss (two names I never really thought I'd put next to each other in this context) did their best to keep Provost in it, but the difference here was in the middle players. From here though, I know Dancin' Dennis is in trouble after the loss of Mike Williams. But he's spent so much of his FAAB to this point adding depth, he might be able to shake it off. I hope there won't be any bad blood when he gets outbid on players later in the year. Don't blame me that you only get $100 FAAB dollars.
Also, congratulations to Provost on his wedding, adding to his own personal Love Story.
Pedro Pickles whips Iron Ryan, 124.5-92.5
Iron Ryan had the highest scoring player in this one (the Bill defense at 31 points) but with only 2 other players in double figures, he couldn't keep up with Lamar Jackson (27) and Deebo (22). It's gonna be tough for I-Ry with two members of the Falcons offense.
Hardcore Sacks takes out Death Valley Driver, 116-111.5
It occurred to me that this game almost ended in a tie, and was basically only a Jalen Hurts tush push touchdown from a tie. It's also the second straight week DVD had 116 points score against him (following his tie last week). Hardcore's roster looks a bit like a dynasty roster; a whole lotta rookies, following Nick Chubb's knee injury. I'd say these two teams are firmly in the middle of the pack.
Holy point scoring, Batman!
Week 3 was the third highest scoring week in league history (or at least since 2017). It's only the fourth time we've ever crossed the 1200-point threshold in a single week.
Week 5, 2021 - 1306 points (123.25 median score)
Week 1, 2019 - 1217 points (117.5 median score)
Week 3, 2023 - 1213 points (120.25 median score)
Week 12, 2018 - 1200 points (121.5 median score)
Week 5 in 2021 had 5 teams score more than 150 points, with a lowest score of 105. Week 1 in 2019 had a high score of 173.5, and a low of 97. Week 12 of 2018 saw three scores over 140, nine teams in triple digits, and a low of 75.
Week 3 of 2023 saw 8 teams in triple digits, and a low score of 85.5. It's also pretty wild to see a swing of 294 points from Week 1 (919 points).
Congratulations are in order....
Also wanted to send a quick congratulations to Provost on his wedding this weekend. Maybe your opponent (Hardcore) will gift you a victory on your special weekend.
The rest of us? Well, we'll have to earn them. See you out there!
Hey, you guys remember that Staples commercial from the late 90s?
That’s how I usually feel about Week 1. It’s fantasy football time.
Everyone thinks their team is going to be good. Happiness! The most wonderful time of the year!
And then: everything comes crashing down. Man, the NFL really does
change a TON every year, doesn’t it?
Aaron Rodgers made it 4 plays in a Jets career that had SO MUCH hype.
Four plays! Aside from the fact that I can’t throw a football more than 10
yards in the air (probably), I feel like I could have lasted more plays. (This
is likely the same kind of hubris as this guy, but waaaay less sexist.)
I’m guessing many of you in the league thought “hey, my team may not
be the best, but it should compete.” And then…
Only two teams broke 100 points this week. (More on the history aspect
later) The second highest scoring player on the week was a defense (sorry to
all your Giants fans. I hope you went to bed early because….damn.)
Jeff Fisher Effect won the first Tidwell of the season, thanks to that
Cowboys defensive performance. I’m considering donating the $10 winnings for
the week to the Gene and Jerry Jones Family Foundation (not really, they don't need the money). Death Valley Driver got
more points from Tyreek Hill, and had he won, I would have suggested he donate
the money to the Tyreek Hill Foundation Against Domestic Violence (which does
not exist).
It was not a good week for Iron Ryan or Dancin’ Dennis Nedry, as each failed to break 70 points. It’s
early, but they both fired some big shots in the FAAB department; I-Ry added
Gus Edwards on the heels of the JK Dobbins injury, and DDN added Kyren Williams
and Kenneth Gainwell. Gainwell will be immediately as useful as the player he
dropped Rashaad Penny was, thanks to an injury.
I also appreciate that I-Ry added Dicker the Kicker.
It was an interesting week for the teams not yet mentioned, who scored
between 99 and 82.5 points. Luckily for Pedro Pickles (he, of the 82.5), he got
matched against DDN.
It’s going to be interesting to see what happens in Week 2!
Historic Week 1?
I thought Week 1 was weird from a scoring standpoint. Because it’s
what I do, I went back and looked.
Year
Teams over 100 pts Week 1
2014*
3 (8 team league)
2015
6
2016
7
2017
1
2018
6
2019
9 (only Nate missed, with 97)
2020
6
2021
6
2022
5
So definitely a weird Week 1 for scoring. It looks like Week 15 of
2018 was the last time we had so few teams over 100 points. If you remember,
that was probably the weirdest scoring week in, like, fantasy history. Pepperidge
Farm remembers. So do Kevin and Tim.
I’ll set the over/under on teams getting to 100 in Week 2 at 5.5.
Historical Bench
In this weeks’ GroupMe chat – after a week where he picked a LOT of wrong
players for his lineup – Utah Falco asked about the bench scoring. Again, I went
back and looked. I don’t have historical bench data from the first three years
of the league. By the time I started wanting to track the data, ESPN had only
made only the starting lineups scores available in the league history. However,
I have all the bench data from 2017-2023. Here are the bench totals all-time:
Bench
Kyle
4,221
Tim
4,132.5
Cusick
3,993
Nate
3,859
Nash
3,757.5
Provost
3,674.5
Pete
3,585
Kevin
3,479.5
Chris
3,261.5
Ryan
3,007
Note our man Cusick, sitting there in third place. I’d argue he’s the
outlier in the top 5, as each of the other managers in the top 5 have winning
records all-time. Here are the all-time records:
Win
Loss
Tie
Win %
Tim
86
57
1
0.597
Kevin
77
64
4
0.531
Provost
74
69
2
0.510
Nate
73
69
1
0.510
Nash
74
68
3
0.510
Pete
66
62
0
0.516
Kyle
65
64
0
0.504
Cusick
63
81
1
0.434
Chris
63
82
0
0.434
Ryan
60
83
2
0.414
Notice that Cusick has the third worst record all-time, but the third
HIGHEST bench points. Now, making the comparison based on record when there’s 9
years of win-loss data, but only 6 years of total point data doesn’t give a
good comparison. So let’s see it based solely on point totals since 2017 (including
this past week 1).
Points by STARTERS since 2017
Starters
Tim
10,731.5
Nash
10,609.5
Nate
10,411.5
Kyle
10,352.5
Pete
10,268.5
Provost
10,185.5
Kevin
10,177.5
Cusick
9,772.5
Chris
9,687.5
Ryan
9,129.5
Points by BENCH since 2017
Bench
Kyle
4,221
Tim
4,132.5
Cusick
3,993
Nate
3,859
Nash
3,757.5
Provost
3,674.5
Pete
3,585
Kevin
3,479.5
Chris
3,261.5
Ryan
3,007
Bench points as a percentage of total points since 2017:
% of Total
Cusick
29.01%
Kyle
28.96%
Tim
27.80%
Nate
27.04%
Provost
26.51%
Nash
26.15%
Pete
25.88%
Kevin
25.48%
Chris
25.19%
Ryan
24.78%
What does this all tell us:
In theory, this data tells us that Ryan is statistically the best
lineup setter in our league. When dealing with what he’s got on his roster, he
gets the most out of his lineup. The problem is: his teams generally suck.
We also notice that the top 4 STARTER point scorers over the sample
size (Tim, Nash, Nate, Kyle) are also in the top 5 in BENCH scoring (Tim 2nd,
Nate 4th, Nash 5th, Kyle 1st). So it’s perhaps
as much an indicator of a strong roster as it is on lineup setting.
Which leaves us with Cusick: 7th most points from his
starters, but 3rd most from his bench.
Here’s the total points since 2017:
Total
Tim
14,864
Kyle
14,573.5
Nash
14,367
Nate
14,270.5
Provost
13,860
Pete
13,853.5
Cusick
13,765.5
Kevin
13,657
Chris
12,949
Ryan
12,136.5
Of the top 5 in total points since 2017, only ONE does NOT have a
championship in that time frame (sorry to point it out, Nash), and two of the
top 5 have two titles.
Cusick wanted to say he’s “the best” at something. And, I think I’d
agree: given all these factors he’s “the best” as setting a bad lineup.
Here Comes Week 2!
Week 2 is starting right now (seriously, the Eagles and the Vikings are playing as I type this). If the first quarter is any indication, Week 2 might suck as bad as Week 1. Here's hoping it's not.
Week 8 was a pretty good week for fantasy football. For the most part, if you had a big-name player this week, he paid off. I mentioned in the GroupMe chat on Sunday evening that we appeared poised to post our highest scoring week of the year, but we fell just short with 1105.5 this week (Week 5 had 1115 points). It’s also kind of interesting that Falco was the only team whose score ended in .5 this week. That’s (probably) the fewest since 2014, the first year of the league when we didn’t even allow fractional scoring.
Shall we do recaps? Let's ride!
Jeff Fisher Effect tramples Gravy Train 145-110
It’s easy for me to say, but I feel like $20 on Daniel Jones as a bye week fill-in might have been an overpay. What did work out for GT this week was Christian McCaffrey in what was really his 49ers debut; he’s so good and NOW he also has a good offense to be part of. Look out for CMC going forward. Partly bad luck for GT he had to play Jeff Fisher Effect who got a big week from Tua, to go along with the usual week from Stefon Diggs and Justin Jefferson (Juston Diggerson?) Worth noting, since I mentioned it in the Midseason Notes: JFE got 13 points from the defense this week, which MORE THAN DOUBLED his point output from the position this season.
Death Valley Driver topples Hardcore Sacks, 123-106
DVD got what he needed from his most important players: Dalvin Cook (23.5), Aaron Jones (18) and Tyreek Hill (25). The rest he got was just fine, enough to topple Hardcore Sacks, who is still the top scorer in the league, but now sits at 4-4. Sacks had some kind of shot going into Monday night, but Tee Higgins couldn’t get quite enough done in that game that was a dud in the first half, then really only got better for the Browns. Jalen Hurts was big for him, and he’s hoping Cooper Kupp won’t be out for long with his ankle injury (it’s looking like it’s day-to-day).
Iron Ryan triumphs over Utah Falco, 98-70.5
Here’s some actual footage from his matchup:
It’s worked out this season that neither of these guys seems to have many players who can give you a blowup week. I guess I-Ry has Jaylen Waddle, who put up 27 in this one, and the Jonathan Taylor injury has hurt him (pun intended). It’s a win for I-Ry, but there’s some luck involved, given that he scored the third-fewest points on the week.
Released Dix On Boobies tumbles Dancin Dennis Nedry, 133-118
D’onta Foreman had a huge day for the DDN, scoring a total of 3 TDS and 32 points….wait, hang on….I’m being told Foreman was on the bench for DDN this week. Oops. I’m not sure where DDN would have gotten him into his lineup anyway. He wouldn’t have sat Barkley or Kenneth Walker at RB, and his two WR spots and flex made sense over Foreman. Though perhaps this gives Foreman more of a case going forward. For Boobies (heh), it was the Derrick Henry and AJ Brown show, each going over 35 points.
Pedro Pickles plasters Team Provost, 115-87
I mentioned to a friend outside this league that the same manager had Alvin Kamara (37 points) and Tony Pollard (36.5) on the same team, and he basically said “wow, that guy must have the most points in the league.” Well, not quite. Because the rest of Pedro Pickles’ squad didn’t do much. So he didn’t win a Tidwell, but he won the matchup. The rest of his team didn’t NEED to do anything because Team Provost’s team did even less: he had 3 lineup spots that scored 0 or fewer points (DeVante Parker, Bucs D, Evan McPherson). I don’t care who you have, that’s hard to win with.
Looks like we've got a case of the Benchies
I said I’d look at benches this week.
We scored a total of 379 points from our collective benches this week. How does that compare to other week's this season?
Week 1*
402
Week 2*
377.5
Week 3*
489.5
Week 4*
445
Week 5*
371.5
Week 6
223.5
Week 7
246.5
Week 8
379
(*) = no teams on bye week
So it’s not the highest scoring bench week of the year as you can see. BUT…it’s the highest BY FAR of the three weeks we’ve had teams on bye. And it is even higher than a couple of weeks where there were no byes. I’d say that qualifies as a heavy bench week.
Also, FWIW, who asked about this in the chat? Kevin. Who leads the league in bench scoring this year? Kevin.
And for reference, there are no byes in week 12, but 6 teams on bye in week 14. Why? Why do the paste eaters in the NFL office do this?
Overdue Milestone Talk
While I was slacking off not writing notes this year, I missed some milestone wins. Dancin’ Dennis Nedry and Team Provost each earned their 70th league win back in Week 2 of this season. DDN is up to 73 total wins, while Provost is stuck on 70, having now lost 6 straight.
Two more managers are flirting with the 70 win mark: Gravy Train currently sits at 69 (nice) while The Effect has 68. We’ll see who gets there first.
Hardcore Sacks is the all-time wins leader at 78. Here’s the full breakdown through Week 8 of 2022.
DVD, Utah Falco and Boobies (heh) each earned their 60th win this season as well. It’s unlikely I’ll even mention this again until someone hits 100, which won’t be for another few years.
WAAAAY Too Early Playoff Preview
As of this writing, the top 6 teams (remember, we have 6 playoff spots now) all have predicted playoff percentages per ESPN of at least 74 percent. Gravy Train, the current 7-seed, has a PPP of 50. Honestly, he's got the 3rd most points in the league. I find it hard to believe his bad luck will continue if he keeps putting up points like that. Though it's also worth noting that he's 4-4 against the league average this season. He's also got one week where he scored 160 points (next highest total is 129). So his actual total might be a little inflated.
I will say it doesn't look good for the other three non-playoff teams: I-Ry, Boobies (heh) and Team Provost (all at 30% or lower).
Also, as the heading mentions, it's way too early. One of these teams swings a good trade or goes on a run, it's certainly not over.
But these Notes are. Sorry they weren't video this week. Maybe next week.
