Tuesday, December 25, 2018

Playoffs - Round 2, or A New Champ Is Crowned

Congratulations to Death Valley Driver on his first STPS Championship!

I gave him shit all year for getting lucky and winning so many games with scores under 100 points. But when it mattered, Death Valley Driver put up big weeks, and rolled to his first title. DeAndre Hopkins was huge for him twice, as was Derrick freaking Henry, and neither opponent was able to put up much of a fight. Fantasy football is weird sometimes. Find the right guys at the right time, and you can win. He's the fifth different champion in the league's five-year history.

Here are the final standings according to ESPN, final record in parentheses:

  1. Death Valley Driver (11-5)
  2. The Jeff Fisher Effect (8-8)
  3. Hardcore Sacks (11-4-1)
  4. Dancin' Dennis Nedry (9-6-1)
  5. Scrote Squad (7-9)
  6. Panic Time Squad (7-8-1)
  7. Iron Ryan (7-8-1)
  8. Released Dix On Boobies (5-11)
  9. Pedro Pickles (7-9)
  10. Team Provost (5-11)
Team Provost becomes the first owner to win both a Championship AND be The Worst.

Couple Other Random Tidbits
Scrote Squad is the winner of the extra 5 bucks in scratch tickets for the 2019 Draft.

Pedro Pickles had 81 points scored against him in both weeks of the regular season; his scores in those weeks were separated by 107 points (52.5 in Week 15, 159.5 in Week 16).

End of Season: The Gathering
There will be more fun, frivolity and random stats at our End of Season: The Gathering coming up on January 6. Let's meet at the RumbleSeat again, as it appears to be the unofficial STPS Bar, unless anyone has any other ideas. (Perhaps the Birthday Boy could suggest a location?) Think about any possible rule changes you'd like to propose. I don't think there's much we can do to make the league better, but let me know what you think.

Thanks for a great season. I'm happy to have such engaged league mates, and am lucky to have a group of guys I enjoy participating in this silly hobby with!

See you on the 6th!

Wednesday, December 19, 2018

Playoffs - Round 1, or "This Is It, Don't Get Scared Now"


What a weird week! So incredibly low scoring (with one exception). But the NFL had a weird week too. Such is real life, sports, real-life sports and fantasy sports.

Recaps? Ok, sure.

Jeff Fisher Effect holds off Hardcore Sacks, advances to second straight title game
A combination of bad luck and shrewd managing allowed Fisher Effect a chance to defend his title. Joe Mixon went off for 26 points (the most in this matchup). Melvin Gordon’s replacement Justin Jackson managed a TD, which kept Fisher’s head above water on Thursday. And then came Sunday, an injury to Aaron Jones, and Eric Ebron showing his true colors with his stone hands and Hardcore was done. Shitty way to go out  and have your season come crashing down.



 Death Valley Driver emerges from slumber, overwhelms Dancin’ Dennis Nedry
For all the joking and trash talk I’ve given this year for getting lucky, this wasn’t really luck. His team was nuts, and he played the hot hand against his own team’s terrible defense (Derrick Henry). Dancin’ Dennis was behind the 8-ball early, when Tyreek Hill put up a stinker on Thursday, got worse when Lamar Miller got injured on the Texans first series on Saturday, and was topped off by JuJu playing in a game that didn’t turn out to be a shootout.  Here's a graphic representation of how Dancin' Dennis felt during the weekend:


It was some bad luck for DDN, but he still would have beaten every team in the consolation bracket (not that it’s any consolation for the the league’s second leading scorer).


Because OH! The consolation bracket, or what I’ve been referring to as the Garbage Bowl. What a dumpster fire. 



It’s not really a chastisement of their teams, but helps illustrate how weird and low-scoring the week was for fantasy football, and the NFL on the whole (little bit more on that later).

Panic Time Squad wins low scoring affair over Iron Ryan, 64.5-61
Remember last week when both these teams were challenging for a playoff spot? Gus Edwards and Julio Jones led the scoring for Iron Ryan, who also got nothing from his TE spot and less than nothing from his kicker spot. Panic Time stays in the running for the extra $5 in scratch tickets, thanks to a few more points from Julian Edelman and Big Ben. Combined, these two wouldn't have beaten Death Valley Driver.
Scrote Squad topples Pedro Pickles, 83-52.5
Once Pickles didn’t play Damien Williams on Thursday night, and LeSean McCoy was ruled out on Sunday, he was forced to roll with Chris Thompson. And that’s never a good thing. With Patrick Mahomes putting up a pedestrian score (for him), Pickles was destined to struggle. Not that Scrote’s guys played much better, aside from Christian McCaffrey.
Released Dix On Boobies dodges his second straight Garbage Bowl “title”, defeats Team Provost, 80.5-48.5
This is almost the biggest weird one of the week. Provost has ridden Zeke and Saquon all year: no one has more points from the RB slot. But this week? Neither of those guys could do a darn thing. His lack of depth (or really any good, consistent players outside those two RBs) really showed in this one. On the Boobies (heh) side, Russell Wilson and the Vikings D scored 15 points, his two WRs scored 11.5 each, but then the rest was underwhelming. Or maybe just whelming, given the overall scores this week.



Man, oh, man. Thanks to Kevin's Home Alone GIF suggestion, I'm not considering re-naming the "Garbage Bowl" (which I guess I just named?) the "Les Incompetents Bowl." Thoughts? Anyway....moving on!





Title Game Preview
It’s The Jeff Fisher Effect vs. Death Valley Driver in a rematch of last year’s Championship game. DVD is hoping it goes the other way this year. He’ll need another big game from DeAndre Hopkins and Derrick Henry to make it happen. Fisher Effect is hoping Melvin Gordon returns from injury to have a shot.

Garbage Bowl Preview
It’s Pickles vs. Provost here, and imagine they put up scores like they did this past week? They barely combined for 100 this week. If Provost gets his usual from Zeke and Saquon, he’ll be tough to beat. If Pickles get his usual from Mahomes...same thing.

The Week of Futility
Our 10 teams combined to score 791.5 this week. Our second lowest scoring week this year was last week: we scored 1025 points, a difference of 231.5 points. Trey Wingo talked about a good reason for the low fantasy scores in a tweet on Monday:



So just how low scoring was this week in STPS? Well, the 793.5 points was a number we surpassed 4 times in 2014. For clarity's sake, in 2014, we did not give the half-point per reception. Oh…and we only had 8 teams.



Our previous low week was Week 1 of last year, when we managed only 802.5 points. But that was Week 1, and it wasn’t a major deal; we all had the entire season ahead of us.

The thing that gets me about this week is just how much lower it was than EVERY other weeek we've had this year. Such a weird statistical anomaly of a week.


Also, on any other week that wasn't the playoffs, there would have been much more attention drawn to the incredibly low scores of Pedro Pickles and Team Provost, both in the bottom 10 all-time. So....


(I hadn't seen this movie enough times to notice the van was a Dodge in this scene. Classic humor.) 

End of Season: The Gathering
Just a reminder, we decided on January 6th for our year-end fiesta. Shall we do Rumbleseat again? Or perhaps we should wait to decide on venue when we know if the Patriots or Cowboys might be playing that weekend?

I gather you'll hear from me again before the holiday, but if not...



Tuesday, December 11, 2018

Week 14, or The Tie Heard 'Round the League


Generally, when I work overnights on the weekend (as I did this past weekend), I spend some time on Sunday night, after the Sunday Night Football game, getting a headstart on the Notes for the week. So I woke up this morning, came downstairs, poured my coffee and checked the scoreboard. My jaw dropped when I saw the Iron Ryan vs. Panic Time Squad score. Nope, hadn’t thought of THAT possibility. And so, I had to re-write some portions. That’s what I get for trying to get ahead. Anyway…

RECAPS!


The Jeff Fisher Effect holds on, clinches final playoff spot with win over Hardcore Sacks, 121-118.5
George Kittle brought the heat in this one, dropping 33.5 points to lead The Effect to victory. A multitude of double-digit scorers like Nick Chubb and Aaron Jones (among others) for Hardcore kept the game close. So close, in fact, that had Greg The Leg made the 40 yard field goal he missed in the 4th quarter on Sunday night, the outcome of this game would have flipped. (Sorry, Tim, I’m sure you didn’t want to hear that.) These two will face-off again next week in the Semifinal Round.



Death Valley Driver eliminates Pedro Pickles, 89-85
Eighty-nine points is all it took to end Pedro Pickles playoff possibilities. It was DVD’s fifth win while scoring less than 100 points this season, which ties a league record (more on that later). Pickles got bit by injuries to LeSean McCoy (who missed most of his game) and any useful player on his bench. And his starters just didn’t produce. It’s a bitter pill for Pickles, who probably deserved to be in the playoffs. Meanwhile, DVD moves on to be a presumed punching bag in the playoffs.



Iron Ryan and Panic Time Squad take 10 paces, draw, and both die, 100.5-100.5
Each of these teams needed to win and get some help to make the playoffs. It never occurred to me, but a tie would have also worked, had Fisher Effect not managed a win. Iron Ryan put up his usual un-high score. His 100.5 was more than his weekly average this year, though more than half his points came from Tom Brady (24 points) and Julio Jones (27).  The Emmanuel Sanders mid-week injury put a dent in his chances. PTSd continued to get bitten by his mediocre RB situation. He started Doug Martin (9 points) and some guy named Jeff Wilson (9.5 points), while leaving Spencer Ware and Kenyan Drake (both scored 14.5) on his bench. Big Ben’s mid-game injury hurt him here. And then, Adam Thielen came in to rescue him on Monday night. Unfortunately for both these teams, it didn’t matter after The Effect won his game. But the tie makes the Garbage Bowl more interesting than I thought.


Team Provost blasts Released Dix On Boobies, 127-83
Amari Cooper led Provost to the victory and this week’s Tidwell with a second blow-up performance in three weeks. Saquon and Zeke weren’t too bad either. Too bad for Provost (and maybe good for the rest of us), he isn’t in the playoffs. Boobies was dealt the rough hand of losing James Conner to injury this week and Kareem Hunt to stupidity last week, and his RBs just couldn’t recover. To make matters worse, his keeper Derrick Henry) who he’d long since given up on scored 51 points on Thursday night. To make those bad matters even just a little bit worse, the RB he picked up to use (Isaiah Crowell) missed most of his game with injury.

Dancin’ Dennis Nedry taps Scrote Squad, 114.5-86
Todd Gurley is the #2 player in our fantasy league this year. He had a bad game and DDN still had the fire power to win. JuJu Smith-Schuster picked up the slack, and Tyreek Hill was his usual self. It also doesn’t hurt that Scrote Squad started two other members of the Rams offense that could do basically nothing against the Bears D on Sunday night. Jared Goff’s goose egg really put a damper on Scrote’s chances in this one. The game really only mattered for seeding in the Loser’s Bracket.

Playoff Preview
Hardcore Sacks and the Jeff Fisher Effect will face off again this week. It doesn’t really look promising for Fisher Effect to be able to beat Hardcore two weeks in a row. I just don’t see it happening. And it will be exponentially harder if Melvin Gordon isn’t back from injury.

Dancin’ Dennis gets Death Valley Driver, which one would assume will be a win for Dancin’ Dennis; his team really is better. But imagine a world where DVD pulls off another sub-100 point win and sneaks into the Finals.

Thanks to that missed field goal, we now have a 75 percent chance of our first two-time champion. I'm guessing each of these guys wants it pretty badly.

Garbage Bowl Preview
Panic Time and Iron Ryan will do battle again in the first round, thanks to their tie. Thanks to their tie, neither of these teams will be in the running to be The Worst.

It’s bad luck for Pedro Pickles that he winds up here, because he’s in the running for the Worst, the week immediately following a shot at the playoffs. Plus, he’s the #4 scorer in our league, but has the potential to end up as The Worst. And he’s got the tall task of going up against Scrote Squad, who deserved better than he got this year.

Based on his last two weeks, it’s also sort of bad luck that Provost is even one of the bottom two seeds. But I guess someone has to be, right? I say "sort of" because Amari Cooper has gone for over 30 points, or under 10. Otherwise, his team hasn't been great, aside from those RBs. Boobies (heh) is really hoping that James Conner comes back this week to have a shot, or he seems destined to be headed to his third ever The Worst Bowl.

I never would have thought I needed to throw this in there, but because of The Tie, I should mention the playoff tiebreaker listed in our constitution: ties are broken by the most bench points.

How big was that Greg Zuerlein miss to our playoff picture? If he makes that kick, Hardcore beats The Effect. Which would have meant Panic Time would have made the playoffs because he has more points than Iron Ryan. Iron Ryan would be playing The Effect with a leg up on the extra $5 in scratchers for next year's draft. 

Shake Your Money Maker
As previously mentioned (but I started this portion of the notes, so I can’t not do it), Team Provost is this week’s Tidwell Award winner. With this win, 4 of the 6 non-playoff teams have more Tidwell Awards than the #4 seed this year, The Jeff Fisher Effect.



Winning while scoring less than 100 points
I also mentioned earlier that Death Valley Driver won his fifth game this year with a score of less than 100 points. Three other teams have accomplished the same feat during the 14 weeks of the regular season: Boobies (heh) in both 2016 AND 2017, and Hardcore in 2017.

The interesting part here is: Boobies (heh) went a total of 9-14 in games where he scored less than 100 over those two years; Hardcore was 5-7 last year. None of these teams made the playoffs. Their winning percentage in these games is .400. Good batting average, not a good winning percentage.

Death Valley Driver failed to top the 100-point mark 7 times this year: he is 5-2 in those games, good for a .714 winning percentage. It’s a little bit fluky. But hey, that’s fantasy football.



I don’t have an overall winning percentage for the league in games we score under 100. Yet. I promise to bring that to our End of Season: The Gathering.

End of Season: The Gathering
Speaking of which, when should we have it this year? I tossed out January 5-6 in the GroupMe, but not much in the way of response. I like the idea of it being that weekend: there will be a game on, and we can also do our usual fun and frivolity. Would the Sunday be better for people, if we do 1:00 in the afternoon?


Tuesday, December 4, 2018

Week 13, or One More Week Til The Playoffs


I was damn near prophetic last week when mentioning the number of 6-7 teams we could have. We came up one short of my mentioned number, and we have a new holder of the 4th and final playoff spot.

Jeff Fisher Effect escapes vs. Panic Time Squad, 108-107
Well, this was a heckuva matchup. JFE had all but 1 of his players go in the 1:00 games, and his final player go in the 4:25 time slot. His 108 was there, ready to be aimed at all afternoon. And Panic Time just missed it. In a game that was remarkably balanced (each had one “exploding” player in Philip Lindsay for JFE and Travis Kelce for PTSd), JFE squeaked it out in the end. If the Steelers hadn’t been offside THREE TIMES on the final FG attempt Sunday night, Big Ben might have scored another point and we’d be having a different conversation.

Death Valley Driver squeaks by Released Dix On Boobies, 92-89.5
In another squeaker of a matchup, Boobies (heh) basically wishes he hadn’t played a defense. The VIkings defense lost him 3 points; If he doesn’t play a defense, this game ends 92.5-92. Ouch. DVD clinches a playoff spot, but he’s limping toward the playoffs with 4 sub-100 point scores in his last 5 games. Boobies (heh) is eliminated, thanks in no small part to Kareem Hunt and his stupidity.

Hardcore Sacks smashes Iron Ryan, 115-74.5
He didn’t eliminate him, but Hardcore made it very difficult for Iron Ryan to make the playoffs (more on that later). I.R. showed that without Leonard Fournette he doesn’t have much, especially if Julio Jones can’t do anything. Hardcore had a mediocre (for him) week, but he’s cemented his standing as the #1 seed.

Pedro Pickles topples Dancin’ Dennis Nedry, 129-84
Whoa, Nedry! Dancin’ Dennis disappeared this week, posting his lowest score of the year. Todd Gurley was his lone bright spot, scoring 30.5 of his 84 points. He’ll probably be fine for the playoffs (I mean, he’s the second highest scoring team in the league, so we know what he’s capable of) but, speaking from experience, it doesn’t feel great when you put up a stinker of a week this close to the playoffs. No one will feel sorry for him, least of all Pedro Pickles, who won his first Tidwell Award, and is currently sitting as the 4 seed. Patrick Mahomes and Keenan Allen are a major reason. And Zach Ertz certainly hasn’t hurt.

Scrote Squad holds off Team Provost, 118.5-116
Scrote Squad really deserves to be in the conversation for the playoffs, especially with Christian McCaffrey running all over everyone this year. Provost basically has two good players in Saquon and Zeke, and has to hope someone else pops. This week, it was Golden Tate, who happened to be in his lineup. Even though Chris Godwin wasn’t.

How Week 14 Breaks Down
There are 4 teams with a shot at the 4th seed. In no particular order: Iron Ryan, Pedro Pickles, The Jeff Fisher Effect, and Panic Time Squad.

Iron Ryan and Panic Time Squad square off against each other. Loser is out. Winner keeps his hopes alive. Sort of. Here’s the point breakdown for these 4 teams:

Pedro Pickles - 1438.5
Fisher Effect - 1436.5
Panic Time - 1404.5
Iron Ryan - 1235.5

For Iron Ryan to get in, he’s going to have to win, and hope Pickles and The Effect lose. There’s no way he makes up the 200 point gap in points scored.

Panic Time can get in with a win and losses by both Pickles and The Effect. OR, he can win AND make up the point difference (32-34-ish points). Doable, but seemingly unlikely.

If either The Effect OR Pickles win, The Effect and Pickles both win, it’s going to come down to whichever one of them scores more points. The Effect needs to score 2.5 more points than Pickles to make the playoffs. But basically, if either The Effect or Pickles wins, but the other doesn’t, they likely get in.

Money Time!
Pedro Pickles topped the scoring this week, winning his first ever Tidwell Award. His 129 points was his second highest output on the year. His highest weekly total (137) came in Week 6, and was actually only the THIRD highest total that week.

Thursday Night Game
It’s Jacksonville and Tennessee on Thursday night this week. Which means...no one cares. We seem to get this particular Thursday night matchup every year, and it always seems to disappoint. At least this year we won’t have to deal with this:


And we also won’t have to deal with those disgusting colored jerseys.

Commish out!