Wednesday, November 27, 2019

Week 12, Or There's Only Two Weeks Left

***So the Notes this week are going to look a little different. I won't do specific recaps, but will look AHEAD to the scenarios for weeks 13 and 14.***

We've got 4 teams at 7-5, and those teams are currently sitting in playoff position (Hardcore Sacks, Hooked on a Thielen, Death Valley Driver and Pedro Pickles). Honestly, it wouldn't surprise me even a little bit if those were to be the playoff teams. But...I'm not sure that can actually happen.

This week, one of those 7-5 teams will fail to reach 8-5; DVD and Pickles play each other, with the winner being allowed to keep pace for the top seed. DVD follows that up with Hooked in Week 14, so he's got the toughest schedule over the next two weeks.

Hardcore, by contrast, faces zero teams currently in the playoff race (Team Provost and Hamilton Rod and Gun), so he seems the most likely to maintain his spot on the playoffs. Pickles gets Boobies (heh) in the final week of the regular season.

If the DVD-Pickles showdown is the number 1 game of the week, the HRG-Boobies (heh) showdown is 1a. Both are 6-6, and the winner could take over the final playoff spot with a win (provided they have the points to overtake the DVD-Pickles loser; Currently, HRG leads Pickles by 60 points, while Boobies (heh) is up by 6 total points. So if Pickles loses, there's a good chance we have a different 4th seed going into Week 14.

The only team that's been mathematically eliminated is Utah Falco. His best hope is to be 6-8, which won't get it done. He may be the 10 seed going into the Loser Bowl, and could be the front-runner for his first Worst "Title."

While not mathematically eliminated, The Jeff Fisher Effect is virtually eliminated. The best he can hope for at this point is to finish 7-7, and he has no chance of catching even the lowest scoring of the four current playoff teams. How much of "no chance" are we talking here? Pickles, the lowest of the 4 so far, has 1252 points; JFE has 1087.5. That's a difference of 164.5 points. In other words, JFE would need to outscore Pickles by an AVERAGE of 82.5 points a game, which is a point total JFE has failed to eclipse four times this year. So while theoretically possible, it just ain't gonna happen. JFE is basically just hoping to not be The Worst this year.

CURRENT PLAYOFF TEAMS - Opponent in Week 13 and 14
Sacks - Provost, HRG
HOTA - Falco, DVD
DVD - Pickles, HOTA
Pickles - DVD, Boobies (heh)
------------------------------------

CURRENT NON-PLAYOFF TEAMS - Opponent in Week 13 and 14
HRG - Boobies (heh), Sacks
Boobies (heh) - HRG, Pickles
I-Ry - JFE, Falco
Provost - Sacks, JFE
JFE - I-Ry, Provost
Falco - HOTA, I-Ry

So looking ahead to Week 14, the early game that sticks out is the HOTA-DVD matchup. It could possibly be a "winner gets a playoff spot" game.

It's somewhat interesting (and also pretty great) that the luck of the schedule draw has the current Bottom 4 teams all matching up in the last week of the season. It will be huge for Loser Bowl seeding, and likelihood of "winning" The Worst.


TRADE DEADLINE
Just a reminder that the Trade Deadline is tonight! I'm not sure there will be a flurry of deadline action, but I feel it's my duty to inform you of such. But also, I mean....shoot your shot.

ANNUAL THANKSGIVING APPEAL
Also wanted to wish you all a Happy Thanksgiving. And, as usual, say I'm thankful to have a league full of guys I enjoy playing with, and make it easy to be a commissioner. You guys are the best league a guy could ask for. <raises glass>

Wednesday, November 20, 2019

Week 11, or the Fustercluck Miraculously Gets Worse!

So, I give up. I have NO IDEA what's happening in this league any more. We really had a chance to separate out the haves from the havenots... but we dropped the ball like OJ Howard.



It was also pointed out to me that looking at the the ESPN projections, every team with a lower projection actually won this week, which might be a league first. (Too bad your commish doesn't have an answer for that.)

ENDURKAST! (Google translate it, if you can't figure out what it means)

Iron Ryan does Non-I-Ry things, tops Hardcore Sacks, 129.5-117
So this might be the weirdest thing ever, but still not the weirdest thing of the day. Our second lowest scorer posts the highest score he'll post all year, thanks to some random blowup games by random dudes (Ross Dwelly? C'mon.) And he didn't even need his stud waiver pickup Brian Hill, who did virtually nothing, or his kicker, who did literally nothing. As high a score as Hardcore put up (second highest of the week), he would have won if he'd swapped out the Cowboys D for the Ravens D.

Released Dix On Boobies vs. The Jeff Fisher Effect, 108.5-107.5
Going into Monday Night Football, The Effect needed 9 points from Melvin Gordon to pull out the win. He got 9.5 from Melly to keep his slim playoff hopes alive. The Effect's hex on opposing players going down with injury kept up, with James Conner going down super early in the Thursday night game. But Boobies (heh) got 31 from John freakin' Brown and 29 from Jimmy G...just wasn't enough.

Utah Falco silences Hamilton Rod and Gun, 105-82.5
It's the second straight week Falco has gotten a zero from a spot on his team from a player who didn't play....and the second straight week it hasn't cost him. I think we can thank Christian McCaffrey for that; dude scored 25.5 points WITHOUT A TOUCHDOWN! He also finally got something again from Todd Gurley. HRG put up the second lowest score of the week, partly because Tevin Coleman stinks, Amari Cooper was injured, and he insists on putting T.J. Hockenson in his lineup (and keeping AB on his bench).

Pedro Pickles escapes with victory over Hooked On A Thielen, 103-98
Going into Monday night, this one looked pretty sewn up for Pickles. And then Travis Kelce did Travis Kelce things, and turned his possible blowout into a respectable performance. The return of Kareem Hunt has really sapped the ceiling for Nick Chubb, Terry McLaurin has a terrible QB throwing to him, and Adam Thielen is injured as hell. But hey....at least HOTA's got Lamar Jackson. Pickles' win here actually puts him in line for the 4th playoff spot. Thank you, Michael Thomas and Mark Ingram.

Team Provost escapes Death Valley Driver, 88.5-42.5
How bad was DVD's performance this week? His 42.5 points was the second lowest point total OF ALL-TIME. Admittedly, some of it is bad luck: Tyreek Hill (who could have doubled DVD's output on his own) went down with an injury 6 plays into Monday Night Football. Also can be tough when your two best players are on bye weeks, and the TE you've been riding hard all year is suddenly out with an injury. Provost had his two best players on bye also, but managed to get a TD from Tarik Cohen so...yay?

The Money of Champions
I got a message last week from Iron Ryan, paraphrased here: "If I can win a Tidwell, my year will be complete." My response? "Yeah, it's not happening for you or me this year, buddy." I was wrong. Iron Ryan won his first EVER Tidwell this week. He's the 10th owner to win a Tidwell Award. If that number sounds familiar, it's the number of owners we have in the league. He's literally the last to win one. Congrats?

What's Happening Now?
As I mentioned before, Pickles currently sits as the 4th seed in the playoffs, behind DVD, Hardcore and Hooked. Based on record, I-Ry is the first one out of the playoffs. After that, HRG, Boobies (heh) Provost and The Effect are all 5-6, ahead of 10th place Falco at 4-7.

I-Ry gets Hooked this weekend: two 6-5 teams wanting a win to solidify their position. Provost and Boobies (heh) faces off at 5-6, both needing a win to basically stay alive. Pickles (6-5) takes on Falco, hoping to solidify a playoff spot. Falco isn't mathematically eliminated (he's 6th in points), but an 8th loss would probably do it for him. A seventh loss for The Effect would basically doom him, thanks to his putrid point total; he draws Hardcore, against whom he's 6-3 all-time, and riding a 4-game winning streak. (I jinxed myself, didn't I?)

It's the Dozenth week. Three more to the playoffs, and it's going to be a wild ride. Good luck everyone.



Except Tim.


Wednesday, November 13, 2019

Week 10, or The Picture Gets Clearer?

We're heading into the home stretch now, with four games to go in the regular season. Perhaps next week I will regale you with the myriad playoff scenarios, but for now, it simply appears that two teams are hanging on for dear life like Sarah in the opening scene of Cliffhanger.

Shall we do some recaps?

Hooked On A Thielen goes ham, tops Hamilton Rod and Gun 147.5-115
It's a good output for HRG, something he's sometimes struggled with this year. He just ran into the Tidwell winner this week, as you saw him complain about in the GroupMe. But when Christian Kirk (who I honestly can't imagine was anything but an emergency "please get me 8 points" start) and Lamar Jackson have days like they had for HOTA, it's going to be tough to beat. Even Derrick Henry's 33 points weren't quite enough to rescue HRG.

Death Valley Driver sounds death knell on Jeff Fisher Effect, 126-66.5
DVD continued his run toward the top of the league, and basically handed The Effect his walking papers for the playoffs. DVD enjoyed the return of Patrick Mahomes and the effect on Tyreek Hill and a Kyler Murray game against a bad Bucs D. MEanwhile, the only thing that even worked at all for JFE was...his bench. Two double digit scorers in his lineup compared to four on his bench. Not that it would have helped him make up the 60 point differential.

Hardcore Sacks survives two stinkers, but still whips Released Dix On Boobies, 120-86
David Johnson and Cooper Kupp did nothing, and Hardcore STILL had enough firepower to win here. Mostly thanks to Aaron Jones, who somehow has gone all 2016-LaGarrette Blount and only scores touchdowns these days. Boobies (heh) was stuck with Matthew Stafford injured, and had to ride with Jimmy G which didn't work out for him.

Pedro Pickles welcomes Mahomes back, takes out Iron Ryan 111.5-102
Patrick Mahomes came back and did Patrick Mahomes things, but it was really the Rams D against Rudolph the Red-Nosed QB that saved him in this matchup. I-Ry is basically thrilled that with George Kittle out, his keeper O.J. Howard finally decided to do something. He did have a solid day all around, but the newly acquired David Montgomery failed to produce much of anything.

Utah Falco catches a break, tops Team Provost 98.5-84.5
Falco finally caught a break with a team NOT putting up a huge week against him to squeak out a win. He got lucky that even an INACTIVE LeSean McCoy in his starting RB spot worked out for him, largely because he had Christian McCaffrey and the 49ers defense. Provost had bad luck that Tyler Lockett went up against the Niners, but you'd have expected more out of Mike Evans (against the Cardinals), Saquon (against the Jets) and Drew Brees (against the Falcons).


Money: The Other White Meat
Hooked On A Thielen took home his third Tidwell of the year this week (thank you, Christian Kirk).

What's Happening This Week
The Matchup of the Week this week looks to be HOTA (6-4) vs. Pickles (5-5). Pickles is in the thick of the playoff hunt, and a win would certainly keep him there. A loss, however, would make the uphill climb a little steeper. HOTA will certainly be looking for that 7th win to keep pace with DVD (who's 7-3 and faces 4-6 Team Provost this week). I-Ry (5-5) needs a win over Hardcore (6-4) this week to keep pace, thanks to his low point total. HRG (5-5) doesn't want to lose to the 3-7 Utah Falco squad, and the 5-5 Boobies (heh) team certainly doesn't want to lose to JFE. ( JFE basically needs to win out and have everyone else end up 7-7 or worse to make the playoffs. That, or start averaging 200 points a week. Neither seems likely.)

We're on to Week 11.

Tuesday, November 5, 2019

Week 9, Or The LogJam continues

OK, so before you even start reading, open this link in a new tab, and let it play while you're reading.

Done that? Moving on...

We've got this crazy logjam in the middle of our league standings right now. One 6-3 team, a 2-7 team (who probably doesn't really deserve it) and everyone else is 5-4 or 4-5. It could create some major excitement in the next few weeks, while we wait for a team to separate itself from the pack. Or we may end up with a couple teams at 7-7 who miss the playoffs.

REKAPS!!

Lockett, Evans give Team Provost the edge over Hooked On A Thielen, 130.5-82.5
Hey, it's really hard to beat a team with multiple 30 point scorers, like Provost had in Tyler Lockett and Mike Evans. It wouldn't even have helped if HOTA had played Lamar Jackson instead of Aaron Rodgers. The downside for HOTA was that he also left Carlos Hyde on the bench, who would have been his second (or third) highest scoring player of the week. HOTA cansecond guess all he wants, but he would have had a hard time winning this week anyway, especially with 3 of his players on bye, and a mid-game injury to Adam Thielen.


Pedro Pickles shows signs of life, silences Hamilton Rod and Gun 118.5-103
FOUR guys on bye for Pickles didn't matter, because he finally got what he had been looking for all year from Zach Ertz. And also DK Metcalf, presumably added as a bye week fill in and a hope for something, put up big numbers. Meanwhile, HRG continues to ride with Carson Wentz, who has been pretty pedestrian the last 3 weeks. He's running into a problem similar to other teams in the league: his highly-talented, highly-drafted players just haven't been putting up numbers.


Death Valley Driver moves to the top of the league, softens Hardcore Sacks 119-101.5
In a matchup of what might be our two most talented teams, DVD pulled out the victory; this time, with no help from the Patriots D. He did get a lot of help from David Montgomery's two 1-yard TD runs. Hey, TDs are 6 points no matter how many yards to get beforehand. Hardcore went in "shorthanded" with Cooper Kupp on bye, but still put up a good fight. Aaron Jones and the ineffective Packers offense sort of did him in.


Jeff Fisher Effect continues Jekyll and Hyde act, takes out Utah Falco, 117-97
Melvin Gordon finally did some Melvin Gordon things for JFE this week. Two TDs, and a pretty cool hurdle over a Packers defender. It covered up a stinker from Stefon Diggs. Well, so did the crazy performance from Russell Wilson. Falco had a reasonable week, but the 2 points from the heretofore good 49ers D (who had put up double digits 4 straight weeks) and virtually nothing from Shady McCoy sort of doomed him here.


Iron Ryan uses big Monday Night from Dak, Gallup, squeaks by Released Dix On Boobies, 101.5-100
The hapless Giants looked good in the beginning of Monday Night Football. And then, same as the viewers, they #gotboogered. Dak Prescott and Michael Gallup remembered they play for the better team, and helped I-Ry barely escape with the win. It's the narrowest margin of victory in the league this season. For Boobies (heh), it was Mitch Trubisky who killed him. Yeah, he didn't start Trubisky, but he's so bad, his stink extends to Allen Robinson, who managed just a half-point. Shoulda played Mike Williams.


It's A Money Thing; You Wouldn't Understand
Team Provost topped the league scoring this week, winning his second Tidwell of the season. The nine Tidwell awards this year have been spread across 5 owners, with 4 of them winning twice. The owner with a single Tidwell also happens to be our top scoring team (DVD). Meanwhile, Team Provost is 7th in total scoring and has two, while Boobies (heh) is the #4 scoring team, and has no Tidwells.

Fantasy is weird, man.

Other Scoring Hodge Podge
I referenced earlier that Utah Falco probably doesn't deserve to be 2-7. He's had 1140 points scored against him. That's 86 more than the next highest points against, which translates to an extra 9.5 points against per week. It's an AVERAGE of 126.6 points against per week. That 126 point average, would be the highest points FOR per week average in league history (by about 5 points). And if it continues (which it can't, right? Regression and all that?) would be the highest points against average by a FULL 10 points. To be fair, Falco has the third fewest points for, so it's not entirely a fluke of high scoring against him. But what would his record look like if he had the points against of The Jeff Fisher Effect, who has 331.5 FEWER POINTS AGAINST!

No one has scored less than 103.5 points against Falco this year (and that 103.5 was in Week 1), and he's played against the Tidwell winner THREE TIMES! Using the "against league average" every week, he'd be 4-5. (Though, interestingly, using that same metric, our teams would only be either 5-4, 4-5, or 3-6. You can see that on the "Points" tab here.)

Fantasy is weird, man.

Coming Up Next
We've got two matchups for 5-4 teams this week: Hardcore vs. Boobies (heh) and HRG vs. HOTA. Every one of those teams wants a win to keep pace with first-place DVD, who draws The Effect this week, and seems likely to get Alvin Kamara back. I-Ry and Pickles face off, and Team Provost takes on Falco. We're going to have at least two 6-4 teams after this week, and we'll see how the standings separate out beginning Thursday night with Raiders-Chargers.

On to Week 10!