Week 11, or the Pre-Thanksgiving edition

 We're coming up on Thanksgiving, and I can't remember a week this early in the season where the playoffs seemed to have so little drama.

By "little drama," I mean the 8 teams not in a playoff spot having losing records, and the closest is 2 games out of a playoff spot with 3 games to go. It doesn't look good.

The 4 teams in the playoffs (Team Provost, Regress to the Mean, Released Dix On Boobies, and Iron Ryan) are all 7-4 or better, and look to basically be jockeying for position.

League-wide Recap

Team Provost maintained his stranglehold on the league. He has the most points scored, and the fewest points against. He won himself another Tidwell this week, partly thanks to the LA WRs (Keenan Allen and Cooper Kupp). Literally no one in his starting lineup scored less than 10 points. 

Taysom Hill being eligible at TE was certainly a help for Released Dix On Boobies this week, though any advantage there is going away. Boobies (heh) looks like a very good shot for his first EVER playoff berth with Michael Thomas coming back, Dalvin being Dalvin and A.J. Brown doing stuff like this:

There's some argument to be made that Regress to the Mean lucked out this week playing the rotting husk that is Jeff Fisher Effect. But hey, a win is a win, and he's got a good team. He's got a legit shot at his first league title.

The Browns defense led the scoring for Iron Ryan, who's in position for his first playoff berth since the inaugural year of STPS. Kyler and DK could carry him to the playoffs.

That's the top 4-sitting-pretty-in-a-playoff-spot group.

Then sitting at 5-6, you've got Hamilton Rod and Gun, Death Valley Driver and Utah Falco (only one of whom managed a win this week). We'll look at the importance of the Week 12 matchups coming up.

Pedro Pickles is still on life support, but needs the Eagles offense to not completely suck and Travis Fulgham to be relevant. Fulgham was HUGE early in the season, but he's caught only two more passes than your Commissioner the last two weeks. Pickles's team is better than his 4-7 record, so it's still possible for him to make a run. But he's got a lot of work to do.

Oh yeah: Hardcore Sucks and The Jeff Fisher Effect are in the league too. Hardcore put up some points this week after 3 straight weeks of malodorous scores. The Effect just sucks. 

Tidwell Time

It was Provost. Provost won the Tidwell.

Week 12 Matchups

This week has some interesting implications for the playoffs. The top 2 teams (Provost and RTTM) face off against the bottom 2 teams (Hardcore and The Effect). So, there's a real chance for the rich to get richer here.

Boobies (heh) and I-Ry face off, basically jockeying for the 3 seed. One of them will be 8-4 and virtually assure themselves of a playoff spot; the other will be 7-5, and still be the 4th seed (at least for now).

Our current 5 seed HRG takes on Pedro Pickles. An HRG win likely keeps him in the 5-spot going into a Week 13 matchup with Boobies (heh), and eliminates Pickles. Pickles basically needs to win out to have a shot. He's got the second most points in the league (though that's partly influenced by having 3 of the top 6 scoring weeks, including the highest score; he's also got 4 scores in the 80s).

The matchup of the week has to be DVD vs. Utah Falco. Both are 5-6; basically, winner keeps their slim playoff hopes alive (their point totals don't help them in any tiebreaker scenarios) and the loser hopes to avoid being The Worst.

Playoff Picture

Team Provost has locked up a playoff spot. A win for RTTM this week (or really any week until the end of the year) would lock him in as well. So we won't talk much about them.

The Boobies (heh) vs. I-Ry match is important for seeding. The winner vastly improves their chances at making the playoffs, while the loser is still in, but will need to win in either Week 13 or 14.

The 5-6 teams have a shot, but need some help. Here's how to looks for them (with their next 3 opponents):

• Hamilton Rod and Gun (Pickles, Boobies (heh), DVD)
• DVD (Falco, I-Ry, HRG)
• Falco (DVD, The Effect, Provost)

That Week 14 game between HRG and DVD could be big if I-Ry or Boobies (heh) falters. But that's looking waaaay ahead.

Pickles needs to win out, and either I-Ry or Boobies (heh) to lose out. That's his Obi-Wan Kenobi.

According to theffhub.com, a site I found on Reddit, our playoff positions are basically set. The site calculates odds "from the history of each team's scores this year. It does not take projections or byes into account. It uses that data to run 10,000 monte carlo simulations of each matchup given a team's average score and standard deviation."

So what are the odds of team's making the playoffs?

• Team Provost - 100%
• RTTM - 99.8%
• I-RY - 90.55%
• Boobies (heh) - 86.07%
• HRG - 18.75%
• DVD - 2.77%
• Pickles - 1.77%
• Falco - 0.27%

I left Hardcore and The Effect out: they have no chance. Literally. In fact, The Effect has a 65% chance of finishing in last place.

The Part Where Commish is Thankful

I think I say this every year around this time, but I truly am thankful for this league. Perhaps this year more than usual. Sure, my team stinks. But this league is fun. In a year where we're all spending more time at home, I've been more grateful than ever to have fantasy football to look forward to. You guys make it fun. Other Commish's would kill to have a league like we've got, so thank you.

Don't forget there are Thursday games this week. I'll be rooting for the Lions, like I do every Thanksgiving. For no reason other than they always play on Thanksgiving. (yeah, the Cowboys do too, but....no thanks.)

Bonus points to anyone who posts a video in the GroupMe of them eating a turkey leg like my man Cameron Jordan here:

See you next week!

Week 10, or "That's Not What You Want"

 Well, it certainly wasn't what some teams wanted. For the most part, the rich got richer, and the middle class stayed middle class. I guess it's a lot like America.

RECAPS!

Utah Falco keeps hopes alive, pops Pedro Pickles 115.5-83

Falco was teased by CMC coming back, and then getting injured again, but it didn't matter against Pickles this week. Neither did it matter that he started Chris Carson (who didn't play this week) in his flex spot. Pickles was partly victimized by Drew Brees' rib injury, but also got basically nothing from Travis Fulgham, and literally less than nothing from the Washington Football Team defense. It's his second straight week playing the Tidwell winner, but it's not like he's lit the world on fire either time.

Team Provost destroys Released Dix On Boobies, 114.5-65.5

I actually toyed with this headline: Team Provost starts his bench, beats Released Dix On Boobies 68.5-65.5. Because yeah, that would have been true. It started on Thursday night for Boobies (heh) with a bad performance from AJ Brown, and then Provost was basically as steady as he's been all year. I don't think he should expect that kind of performance from his bench depth pieces, but his starters are good.

Regress to the Mean has a bye week, beats Hamilton Rod & Gun 109-58.5

Actual text message exchange between HRG and The Commish on Sunday night:

I mean, we kinda knew this week was looming for HRG: he drafted all Cowboys and Chiefs, and they were both on bye this week. HRG tried to ride the Curtis Samuel train, but Samuel remembered he's a great athlete not a great football player, and Russell Wilson seems to have forgotten how to play quarterback. RTTM had Josh Jacobs, and Diontae Johnson, which was almost all he needed. Nice to see he didn't play down to the level of his competition.

Death Valley Driver delivers The Jeff Fisher Effect a loss, 107.5-89.5

DVD didn't need a monster week from Davante Adams this week and he's glad to have Miles Sanders back. It was a pretty unremarkable 107 points from DVD, though Adam Thielen helped him to that on Monday night with 2 TDs. JFE's second best scorer was his kicker, so that's rarely good. He got killed in the RB department, thanks to Gio Bernard (against the Steelers) and JK Dobbins. JFE is DOA.

Iron Ryan holds strong, hacks Hardcore Sucks 105-68.5

Kyler Murray and Antonio Gibson took I-Ry to the win this week. It wasn't DK Metcalf (thanks to the aforementioned Russell Wilson disappearing act). Hardcore Sucks does just that. He made some tough choices this week too, leaving Mike Evans and Justin Jefferson and their double digit point outputs on his bench.

Let's Talk Money

Utah Falco won his first of the season, and only his third Tidwell of all-time. 

 Playoff Picture and Week 11 Matchups

Here's who's in the playoffs as of right now, with their Week 11 opponent:

1. Team Provost (DVD)
2. Regress to the Mean (JFE)
3. Iron Ryan (Pickles)
4. Released Dix On Boobies (Falco)

We have the weird quirk in our standings where our #2 and #3 scoring teams are 4-6 and TWO games out of a playoff spot. If either of them gets hot, they could find themselves in the playoffs. 

HRG is #3 in scoring (despite his dismal output this week) and draws Hardcore this week. HRG and Hardcore are 7-7-1 all-time against each other (their tie was benching all their players in a third place playoff game).

DVD does NOT have history on his side in his attempt to get into the playoffs. He's 3-8 all-time against Team Provost. Working in DVD's favor is that he has Provost's QB's favorite target in Davante Adams. Working against DVD is having Josh Allen on bye.

RTTM is 9-2 all-time against JFE. Also, JFE's team is garbage.

Pedro Pickles needs a win, just as HRG does, to stay in the hunt. He's 8-3 all-time against I-Ry. 

Boobies (heh) and Falco have split their all-time series at 7-7. Falco needs the win more, as he hopes he can keep winning until CMC comes back. If he does, he could make some noise in the playoffs.

Good luck in Week 11!

Week 9, or Separation Anxiety

Things are separating at the top a little bit. The Top 4 teams are the top 4 teams by record; no one could say "I have the same record, but missed the playoffs on a tiebreaker." You know what that also means? Only 4 teams in our league are over .500. 

Should we do recaps? 

RECAPS!

Team Provost pops Pedro Pickles, 137-95.5

Provost improves to 7-2, and hands Pickles a loss he really wanted to avoid. Provost had 20 point weeks from Aaron Rodgers, Keenan Allen and Will Fuller to lead him to the Tidwell. There really was nothing Pickles could do this week, with bye weeks for Kareem Hunt and Travis Fulgham, and a Kenny Golladay injury. He's not out of it, by any stretch.

Interesting note: when Pedro Pickles breaks 100 points this year, he breaks 100 points. In the 5 games he's broken 100, he's had 149, 181, 125, 151.5 and 126 points. When he doesn't break 100, he's got 93, 89.5, 82.5 and 95.5. That 98.5 point difference between top score and bottom score is the most in the league this year.

Released Dix On Boobies tops The Jeff Fisher Effect, 135-108

It's now FIVE straight wins for Boobies (heh) who, until this year, had never won more than three in a row. He's tied for second, and I think is pretty happy Dalvin Cook is back. Honestly, his team looks good, especially now that Michael Thomas is back. Meanwhile, it's just not The Effect's year. His team his OK (I guess, which is easy for me to say) but he's not catching any breaks, and has no RBs. 

Regress To The Mean drops Death Valley Driver, 109-99

RTTM did just enough to get it done here, which is made somewhat more impressive by his opponent who started Josh Allen (32.5 points) and Davante Adams (29 points). Lucky for RTTM, DVD had basically nothing otherwise. He mentioned it in the GroupMe, but it looks like DVD's hopes of a three-peat are a pipe dream now.

Iron Ryan chops Hamilton Rod and Gun, 104.5-101.5

I-Ry was able to overcome David Johnson's early concussion, thanks in large part to Kyler Murray's 37.5 points. DK Metcalf didn't hurt him either. HRG can thank Tyreek for keeping him in it, and the Jets D for injuring Damien Harris and holding him to 7 points on Monday night. Going into the Monday Night game, I-Ry was up 104.5-94.5, and Harris had a projection of 9.9 points.

Utah Falco stops Hardcore Sucks, 81.5-76.5

Remember the end of last week's Notes, when I mentioned this game and then said "Eh, who cares?" Yeah, the sentiment is the same now.

Money Makes The Heart Grow Fonder?

Team Provost earned his second Tidwell is the year, and 6th all-time.

Looking Ahead to Week 10

• Team Provost is 8-4 all-time against Boobies (heh). This is one is probably the matchup of the week. 
• RTTM is 8-5 all-time against HRG, who needs a win to keep pace for the playoffs.
• Utah Falco is over .500 all time (7-6) against Pickles. These two teams also have the same 4-5 records this season, but are headed in COMPLETELY opposite directions.
• DVD owns a 6-5 record all-time against The Effect. Because it makes me feel better, remember they met in the championship game in consecutive years.
• Hardcore leads the all-time series with I-Ry 6-4. I-Ry is sitting in the 4th playoff spot right now, and would like to win to stay involved. I-Ry's last 3 weeks: won by 3, lost by 4, won by 3.

Starting in Week 11, I'll start analyzing rest of season stuff, and how important some of the matchups are going forward. It's about the only thing I can do to make myself feel good about this league. Other than buy some more swag with our logo on it.

How I Feel About My Fantasy Season This Year

Week 8, or The Season Continues

 The cream is rising to the top. Or is that just a mirage? We're a little over halfway through the season and the good teams are starting to get on a roll.

Pedro Pickles rolls Jeff Fisher Effect, 126-86

This is what I mean about Pickles. His team is waaay better than his now .500 record. He's played the waiver wire well, and made the right call to sit Kenny Golladay this week, who wound up getting injured. That's insight you can't teach. He posted the highest score of the week, so I can't even make fun of the hapless Effect for this one (though JFE would have beaten 3 other teams this week).

Released Dix On Boobies keeps rolling, wallops Death Valley Driver, 115.5-82

Boobies (heh) is currently sitting in a playoff spot. He was pretty lucky the last two weeks, but this week he got Dalvin Cook back and if you watched any football on Sunday, you know how that went. If Michael Thomas comes back and is healthy, we might be looking at Boobies (heh) first EVER playoff berth. DVD is in trouble, and hoping the Antonio Brown signing will work in his favor.

Hamilton Rod and Gun takes out Utah Falco, 107-73.5

HRG managed to weather Amari Cooper and AJ Green giving him a combined 2.5 points, partly because he was playing the low-scoring factory that is Utah Falco. Falco has the fewest points in the league, and is hoping like hell that McCaffrey comes back and helps him play spoiler. I mean, that's about all he has left to play for.

Team Provost stays on top, defeats Hardcore Sucks, 100-60

Hardcore sucked this week. Gio Bernard literally scored 1/3 of his points, and was his only player in double figures. Also, it appears Rodrigo Blankenship forgot how to kick during Indy's bye week. I keep looking at Provost's team and thinking "they're not that good" but he keeps winning, and he's been missing Aaron Jones and Nick Chubb. He's got to be on the short list of possible league winners.

Regress to the Mean is mean to Iron Ryan, wins 97.5-93.5

These two were tied going into Monday night. And Ronald Jones scored 4 points. I'd say RTTM was lucky to get Travis Kelce and his 21 points, but the whole reason I-Ry was even in this game was DeeKay Metcalf. (that's how it's spelled, right?) I-Ry kinda had a bye week this week, with 4 players on bye, including his usual starting QB, and a starting RB. RTTM might have been lucky to escape with the win, but a win is a win so....

Money Time!

Pedro Pickles won his second straight Tidwell this week, with the lowest Tidwell winning score this season. He has both the highest and lowest Tidwell scores on the year.

Playoff Update

Thanks to his league-leading point total, Pickles currently occupies the 4th playoff spot, topping the other 4-4 teams. Boobies (heh) has ridden that 4-game winning streak into the 3rd spot, only points behind #2 RTTM. As mentioned, Boobies (heh) could really use Michael Thomas to come back and help him score some points. Wins are what get you into the playoffs, but points are what win it for you. Because I can't not mention it, Provost is #1.

Loser Bowl Update

They all suck. Except HRG and I-Ry. Both of them still have a shot at the playoffs. DVD might have a shot, but will need some help. Hardcore, Falco and the Effect are done. They're just playing to NOT be The Worst.

Week 9 Matchups & Head-to-Head

• The Effect vs. Boobies (heh). The Effect has won 9 matchups, while Boobies (heh) has won 5. Can Boobies (heh) keep the win streak going?
• Pickles is 6-3 all-time vs. Team Provost. The top team in the league vs. the best team in the league.
• RTTM and DVD have split their 14 meetings right down the middle at 7-7. Someone will have more wins than the other one (most likely).
• HRG has 8 wins against only 3 losses all-time against I-Ry. Both want the win to improve their playoff chances.
• Hardcore is 9-2 all-time vs. Utah Falco. Eh, who cares.