Week 11, or the Pre-Thanksgiving edition

 We're coming up on Thanksgiving, and I can't remember a week this early in the season where the playoffs seemed to have so little drama.

By "little drama," I mean the 8 teams not in a playoff spot having losing records, and the closest is 2 games out of a playoff spot with 3 games to go. It doesn't look good.

The 4 teams in the playoffs (Team Provost, Regress to the Mean, Released Dix On Boobies, and Iron Ryan) are all 7-4 or better, and look to basically be jockeying for position.

League-wide Recap

Team Provost maintained his stranglehold on the league. He has the most points scored, and the fewest points against. He won himself another Tidwell this week, partly thanks to the LA WRs (Keenan Allen and Cooper Kupp). Literally no one in his starting lineup scored less than 10 points. 

Taysom Hill being eligible at TE was certainly a help for Released Dix On Boobies this week, though any advantage there is going away. Boobies (heh) looks like a very good shot for his first EVER playoff berth with Michael Thomas coming back, Dalvin being Dalvin and A.J. Brown doing stuff like this:

There's some argument to be made that Regress to the Mean lucked out this week playing the rotting husk that is Jeff Fisher Effect. But hey, a win is a win, and he's got a good team. He's got a legit shot at his first league title.

The Browns defense led the scoring for Iron Ryan, who's in position for his first playoff berth since the inaugural year of STPS. Kyler and DK could carry him to the playoffs.

That's the top 4-sitting-pretty-in-a-playoff-spot group.

Then sitting at 5-6, you've got Hamilton Rod and Gun, Death Valley Driver and Utah Falco (only one of whom managed a win this week). We'll look at the importance of the Week 12 matchups coming up.

Pedro Pickles is still on life support, but needs the Eagles offense to not completely suck and Travis Fulgham to be relevant. Fulgham was HUGE early in the season, but he's caught only two more passes than your Commissioner the last two weeks. Pickles's team is better than his 4-7 record, so it's still possible for him to make a run. But he's got a lot of work to do.

Oh yeah: Hardcore Sucks and The Jeff Fisher Effect are in the league too. Hardcore put up some points this week after 3 straight weeks of malodorous scores. The Effect just sucks. 

Tidwell Time

It was Provost. Provost won the Tidwell.

Week 12 Matchups

This week has some interesting implications for the playoffs. The top 2 teams (Provost and RTTM) face off against the bottom 2 teams (Hardcore and The Effect). So, there's a real chance for the rich to get richer here.

Boobies (heh) and I-Ry face off, basically jockeying for the 3 seed. One of them will be 8-4 and virtually assure themselves of a playoff spot; the other will be 7-5, and still be the 4th seed (at least for now).

Our current 5 seed HRG takes on Pedro Pickles. An HRG win likely keeps him in the 5-spot going into a Week 13 matchup with Boobies (heh), and eliminates Pickles. Pickles basically needs to win out to have a shot. He's got the second most points in the league (though that's partly influenced by having 3 of the top 6 scoring weeks, including the highest score; he's also got 4 scores in the 80s).

The matchup of the week has to be DVD vs. Utah Falco. Both are 5-6; basically, winner keeps their slim playoff hopes alive (their point totals don't help them in any tiebreaker scenarios) and the loser hopes to avoid being The Worst.

Playoff Picture

Team Provost has locked up a playoff spot. A win for RTTM this week (or really any week until the end of the year) would lock him in as well. So we won't talk much about them.

The Boobies (heh) vs. I-Ry match is important for seeding. The winner vastly improves their chances at making the playoffs, while the loser is still in, but will need to win in either Week 13 or 14.

The 5-6 teams have a shot, but need some help. Here's how to looks for them (with their next 3 opponents):

• Hamilton Rod and Gun (Pickles, Boobies (heh), DVD)
• DVD (Falco, I-Ry, HRG)
• Falco (DVD, The Effect, Provost)

That Week 14 game between HRG and DVD could be big if I-Ry or Boobies (heh) falters. But that's looking waaaay ahead.

Pickles needs to win out, and either I-Ry or Boobies (heh) to lose out. That's his Obi-Wan Kenobi.

According to theffhub.com, a site I found on Reddit, our playoff positions are basically set. The site calculates odds "from the history of each team's scores this year. It does not take projections or byes into account. It uses that data to run 10,000 monte carlo simulations of each matchup given a team's average score and standard deviation."

So what are the odds of team's making the playoffs?

• Team Provost - 100%
• RTTM - 99.8%
• I-RY - 90.55%
• Boobies (heh) - 86.07%
• HRG - 18.75%
• DVD - 2.77%
• Pickles - 1.77%
• Falco - 0.27%

I left Hardcore and The Effect out: they have no chance. Literally. In fact, The Effect has a 65% chance of finishing in last place.

The Part Where Commish is Thankful

I think I say this every year around this time, but I truly am thankful for this league. Perhaps this year more than usual. Sure, my team stinks. But this league is fun. In a year where we're all spending more time at home, I've been more grateful than ever to have fantasy football to look forward to. You guys make it fun. Other Commish's would kill to have a league like we've got, so thank you.

Don't forget there are Thursday games this week. I'll be rooting for the Lions, like I do every Thanksgiving. For no reason other than they always play on Thanksgiving. (yeah, the Cowboys do too, but....no thanks.)

Bonus points to anyone who posts a video in the GroupMe of them eating a turkey leg like my man Cameron Jordan here:

See you next week!