Week 16, or the Longest Fantasy Season

Monday Night Football can be fun. Remember that Chiefs-Rams Monday Night game a few years ago? That game was FUN! Here's the link to the highlights if you want to remember.

Stupid NFL, blocking content.

But a Monday Night game in which one teams starting QB is a rookie making his first NFL start simply because the other QBs on his team had to miss the game for COVID reasons is a lot less fun. Especially if you were facing the Miami Dolphins defense. Sorry, I-Ry, though that matchup was already over going into that game.

A matchup that wasn't over going into Monday Night pitted Hardcore Sacks against Death Valley Driver. DVD needed a huge night from Jaylen Waddle, and almost got it. So close, yet so far away. In a stroke of bad luck for DVD as well, once James Robinson's Achilles fall off his body, so that 1 point is a big kick in the teeth in a semi-final matchup.

So we get Hardcore Sacks vs. The Jeff Fisher Effect for the championship. It's each manager's third title game, and each will be looking for his second title. Projections don't have this one particularly close, but it's a matchup of the top two teams in the league by record and by points this year. It should be fun!

Now the real question, which I know you are all wondering (ok, at least the 6 of you involved) is "what the hell did ESPN do with the consolation bracket?" In short, it's weird. Basically, it looks like the first week of the bracket was kind of for "seeding", and the next two weeks are more like the "tournament."

As it stands, you've got HRG who is 2-0 in the consolation, Pickles and Boobies (heh) who are each 1-1, and Provost, who's 0-2.

As it's laid out, the Worst will be the loser of Pickles and Team Provost, while the winner of yet another matchup of Boobies (heh) and HRG will be the winner of the extra scratchies. I apologize that I didn't realize how this consolation bracket was going to work before the season. I think I thought it was going to just eliminate the third week, and this past week was going to be the end of it. Way to go, ESPN.

I've got a couple ideas for how it can work better next year, but we can talk about that at End of Season: The Gathering (or perhaps End of Season: The Zoom Call?). If there's anything else you guys want to adjust for next year, either let me know, or put it in the GroupMe. I'll tabulate them and we can discuss them then. I don't know that there's a lot even worthy of changing, but if you've got an idea, I'm open to hearing it.

Also, Pedro Pickles is going to run our Playoff Pool again this year. I'll leave it to him to explain the thing in the GroupMe.

Hope you all had a wonderful Christmas, and enjoy the extra week of Fantasy Football this year!

Week 15, or ugh!

 It was miserable. It felt terrible. It sucked.

Am I talking about Week 15? Or the sickness that ravaged my family? Well, really it was both.

I didn't write the Notes last week because everyone else in my family was sick. It would be easy to blame the Notes coming out Thursday morning this week on the Tuesday NFL games, but really it was because I finally caught it. I fought valiantly but, like the entire unit in Rogue One, I ultimately lost.

Week 15 in the NFL was brutal. Looking at our fantasy numbers, it was one of the lowest point outputs on the year (and that included the two teams who were on bye). It was a tough week.

But it worked out for Iron Ryan and Death Valley Driver, as they won their matchups to move on to the semi-finals. It was a rough first-ever playoff appearance for Utah Falco, who basically saw Tom Brady drop a turd at the worst time possible for Tom Brady to drop a turd (it wasn't totally his fault though, since he lost his two best receivers).

Ultimately, the difference in the matchup for DVD was Jonathan Taylor's 67-yard TD run to ice the game on Saturday night. Without those 13 points (6 for the TD, 6 for the yardage, and 1 for the 40+ yard bonus), Sycamore pulls out the victory. 

And now, looking at the playoffs, it seems more to be a Playoffs of Attrition. At this point, who's going to get lucky enough to keep their players healthy (both not injured, and off the COVID list). We've tried to build depth, but COVID and the NFL's terrible management of it might wreck all those plans.

Hardcore Sacks was dealt a blow with Austin Ekeler going to the COVID list. Iron Ryan looks like he'll be without Tyreek Hill, half of the stack that propelled him to a win in Round 1. Projections right now have BOTH semi-final matches too close to call. It's going to be a helluva Week 16 in STPS.

And maybe in the NFL too.

In our Worst Bowl, it looks like there's going to be a third week of that too. The winners from this week play next week for the chance to earn the extra scratchers next week, and the losers this week play to avoid being the Worst.

Is it possible that Team Provost will be the first to go from Champ to Worst in a single season? Is it possible that Pedro Pickles could take the lowest scoring team in the league and earn extra scratchers for next year?

(Hey look! That gif says "anything" the exact same way I say "anything" right now.)

And now, I wish to take a few moments to wish you all a Merry Christmas. Another year of Smarter Than Phil Simms Fantasy Football is coming to an end (hey, we get an extra week this year!) and I'd be remiss not to thank you all for another fun year. I absolutely love this league. Everyone is engaged (ok, most of you), and you all make it fun to play in a league like this. Thank you.

And so, as you all sit down for a nice cup of hot cocoa on Christmas Eve, remember that I am thankful for you. You guys frickin' rock.

With that said, I will destroy all of you on my way to a championship. Later losers!

Week 13, or really a Week 14 preview

 We're headed into the final week of the first regular season of our new 6-team playoff format. I think this has been fun, and managed to keep a few more teams in the race longer. Which you'll see as you continue to read.

I've already mentioned in this space the teams that have clinched playoff spots. Hardcore Sacks (who has effectively clinched a top-two seed and a bye), Jeff Fisher Effect and Utah Falco (his first EVER playoff spot btw). Hardcore, thanks to his point total is most likely the top seed. Falco and The Effect will duke it out for the second bye. If both win, The Effect is the most likely 2-seed, thanks to a large lead in the points. If only one of them wins, they're the 2-seed. 

This week, we sort out the final 3 spots. Let's break it down...

Our current 5-seed, HRG, showed signs of life last week (mostly thanks to Kyler Murray) and sits in a somewhat favorable spot to get in. A Sycamore victory really improves his chances, but he can get in on his own with a win over Boobies (heh) this week.

DVD (currently 6th) gets in with a win over The Effect this week too. In a cruel bit of fate, he'll have to do it without his best player (because the NFL doesn't care about fantasy teams and scheduled Week 14 byes, which is equally as dumb as the 17-game season).

Which brings us to what I'll call the Trigger Game: Sycamore vs. I-Ry. Most simply, a Sycamore victory (or a tie) knocks I-Ry out; he can't get in without that 6th win.

However, an I-Ry win triggers several other interesting scenarios. What happens if:

I-Ry wins, either HRG or DVD wins

Whichever of HRG or DVD wins and they're in as the 4-seed with the 7th win; the loser is out. I-Ry and Sycamore would also both get in, thanks to their win total (or more appropriately, their "lack of loss" total).

I-Ry wins, HRG and DVD both win

It's still possible for I-Ry to get in here, but he'll need to make up the point differential between he and Sycamore. If he wins by more than 19.5 points, he gets in, and Sycamore drops out.

 

I-Ry wins, HRG and DVD both lose

All FOUR teams would have 6 wins, but Sycamore and I-Ry would only have 7 losses, so they would both get in. It would come down to point total for HRG and DVD, who are currently separated by 5.5 points.

But hold the phone...

There's still a path for Released Dix on Boobies to get in. 

If the above scenario holds true, Boobies (heh) can slip in if he can make up the point differential, which isn't really insane, especially given his opponent is a team he'd have to jump over.

• HRG - 1334 points
• DVD - 1328.5 points
• Boobies (heh) - 1320 points

So basically: Boobies needs to beat HRG by more than 14 to jump him in the standings. If he also outscores DVD by at least 9, he's the top of the 6-8 bunch and gets into the playoffs! (again, dependent upon DVD losing.)

Just how many of these hypothetical 6-8 teams would get in depends on Sycamore. If Sycamore wins, TWO of the HRG/DVD/Boobies (heh) trio will get in. But's it's all down to the points.

Just because I'm a glutton for punishment as I sit here at 6am writing these Notes...

What happens if HRG and Boobies (heh) tie?

A tie doesn't help Boobies (heh). But it would help HRG. An I-Ry win and an HRG tie would make 3 different teams 6-7-1. If DVD loses, all three of them would get in.

If I-Ry wins, DVD wins and HRG ties, I-Ry would need to make up that point differential between he and Sycamore to get in. (Somehow, I haven't mentioned yet that Sycamore and I-Ry are the 8th- and 9th-highest scoring teams this year. Our 4th-highest, Team Provost, can't even make the playoffs).

TL;DR - Sycamore, HRG and DVD control their own destiny; win and they're in. I-Ry is more complicated, and somehow Boobies (heh) has an outside shot.

So it's going to be an interesting Week 14 in STPS. Can't wait spend all day sitting in front of my TV, constantly refreshing the ESPN Fantasy app for updated projections that will turn out to be SO wrong by the end.