We're headed into the final week of the first regular season of our new 6-team playoff format. I think this has been fun, and managed to keep a few more teams in the race longer. Which you'll see as you continue to read.
I've already mentioned in this space the teams that have clinched playoff spots. Hardcore Sacks (who has effectively clinched a top-two seed and a bye), Jeff Fisher Effect and Utah Falco (his first EVER playoff spot btw). Hardcore, thanks to his point total is most likely the top seed. Falco and The Effect will duke it out for the second bye. If both win, The Effect is the most likely 2-seed, thanks to a large lead in the points. If only one of them wins, they're the 2-seed.
This week, we sort out the final 3 spots. Let's break it down...
Our current 5-seed, HRG, showed signs of life last week (mostly thanks to Kyler Murray) and sits in a somewhat favorable spot to get in. A Sycamore victory really improves his chances, but he can get in on his own with a win over Boobies (heh) this week.
DVD (currently 6th) gets in with a win over The Effect this week too. In a cruel bit of fate, he'll have to do it without his best player (because the NFL doesn't care about fantasy teams and scheduled Week 14 byes, which is equally as dumb as the 17-game season).
Which brings us to what I'll call the Trigger Game: Sycamore vs. I-Ry. Most simply, a Sycamore victory (or a tie) knocks I-Ry out; he can't get in without that 6th win.
However, an I-Ry win triggers several other interesting scenarios. What happens if:
I-Ry wins, either HRG or DVD wins
Whichever of HRG or DVD wins and they're in as the 4-seed with the 7th win; the loser is out. I-Ry and Sycamore would also both get in, thanks to their win total (or more appropriately, their "lack of loss" total).
I-Ry wins, HRG and DVD both win
It's still possible for I-Ry to get in here, but he'll need to make up the point differential between he and Sycamore. If he wins by more than 19.5 points, he gets in, and Sycamore drops out.
I-Ry wins, HRG and DVD both lose
All FOUR teams would have 6 wins, but Sycamore and I-Ry would only have 7 losses, so they would both get in. It would come down to point total for HRG and DVD, who are currently separated by 5.5 points.
But hold the phone...
There's still a path for Released Dix on Boobies to get in.
If the above scenario holds true, Boobies (heh) can slip in if he can make up the point differential, which isn't really insane, especially given his opponent is a team he'd have to jump over.
- HRG - 1334 points
- DVD - 1328.5 points
- Boobies (heh) - 1320 points
So basically: Boobies needs to beat HRG by more than 14 to jump him in the standings. If he also outscores DVD by at least 9, he's the top of the 6-8 bunch and gets into the playoffs! (again, dependent upon DVD losing.)
Just how many of these hypothetical 6-8 teams would get in depends on Sycamore. If Sycamore wins, TWO of the HRG/DVD/Boobies (heh) trio will get in. But's it's all down to the points.
Just because I'm a glutton for punishment as I sit here at 6am writing these Notes...
What happens if HRG and Boobies (heh) tie?
A tie doesn't help Boobies (heh). But it would help HRG. An I-Ry win and an HRG tie would make 3 different teams 6-7-1. If DVD loses, all three of them would get in.
If I-Ry wins, DVD wins and HRG ties, I-Ry would need to make up that point differential between he and Sycamore to get in. (Somehow, I haven't mentioned yet that Sycamore and I-Ry are the 8th- and 9th-highest scoring teams this year. Our 4th-highest, Team Provost, can't even make the playoffs).
TL;DR - Sycamore, HRG and DVD control their own destiny; win and they're in. I-Ry is more complicated, and somehow Boobies (heh) has an outside shot.
So it's going to be an interesting Week 14 in STPS. Can't wait spend all day sitting in front of my TV, constantly refreshing the ESPN Fantasy app for updated projections that will turn out to be SO wrong by the end.
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