Week 8, or Sleep Deprivation

Well, it’s not as long as it usually is…

But here’s the Weekly Notes, written between sleeping and restoring electricity to massive amount of customers. (I noticed no one else volunteered to write them...) RECAPS!

Team Provost (151) vs. The Jeff Fisher Effect (76.5)

The winning streak is over for The Effect. He got blasted, thanks to Zeke and Shady, and no thanks to Todd Gurley (bye week) and the Chiefs offense against the Denver defense (all of whom played for The Effect). Provost was dealt a big blow with Zeke’s suspension being reinstated. Who knows if it sticks this time.

Pedro Pickles (130) vs. Outta Luck (87)

Russell Wilson and Ty Asshole. That’s the big difference. Hilton has not been great or consistent with Jacoby Brisket throwing to him, and Wilson just threw the ball everywhere. Will Fuller kind of sums up Outta Luck’s season (28.5 points on his bench).

Hooper’s Heroes (109.5) vs. Released Dix On Boobies (48)

Tough to win when your highest scoring player (and only player in double digits) gets you 14 points (Tom Brady). I recall writing something about Boobies (heh) being on the upswing. But Amari Cooper reverted to Week 6 form. Hooper put up a solid day, with some help from the Ravens D which isn’t as good as their fantasy scores indicate.

Iron Ryan (102) vs. Grim Reaper (101.5)

Second time for each of these guys being involved in a half-point game, Reaper is hoping for another stat correction (it’s his second loss by 0.5 in three weeks, the first we thought was a tie). Reaper’s downfall might have been sitting Isaiah Crowell (which is a sentence I never thought I would write).

Jameis Winston Zeddemore (85) vs. Scrote Squad (71)

Zeddemore pulled out the win largely thanks to Travis Kelce on Monday night.

He’s 4-4, despite being the only team in the league without a 100-point week. Scrote continued his disappearing-reappearing act. I’d have to confirm but he might be the most up and down team this year.

Money Winner

Team Provost is a first time money winner this week, though he’s been flirting with it. Kind of impressive it’s his first time, given that he’s the second highest scoring team in the league.

And WTF, NFL?

The NFL trade deadline is not usually stacked with trades. But Jay Ajayi, Jimmy Garoppolo and Kelvin Benjamin all found new teams this week. Only two of those players seems fantasy relevant at this point.

Week 9 is coming up fast!

Get it? Up fast?

Sorry. I'm tired.

2017 Keeper Report

I had the best intentions to get this thing done for a Saturday release. And then, someone traded a keeper and… well, I didn’t really change anything. I’m sure there would be some mathematical formula to rank these keepers, but I basically took the approach of the more points you get from the later the draft spot, the better the keeper. And so...

How are the keepers doing?

Here’s a look at how people’s keepers are doing so far this year.

Owner	Player	Keeper Round	Position Rank	Good keeper?
Chris	DeMarco Murray	7	RB18	Yes
Tim	David Johnson	12	INJ	N/A
Provost	Cam Newton	8	QB9	Meh
Nash	Antonio Brown	1	WR1	Yup
Kevin	Jordan Howard	8	RB9	Yup
Ryan	Odell Beckham	1	INJ	N/A
Cusick	Doug Baldwin	13	WR17	Sure
Kyle	Isaiah Crowell	12	RB35	Hahaha
Pete	Le’Veon Bell	2	RB3	Uh-huh
Nate	Melvin Gordon	9	RB6	Yup

DeMarco Murray

He was the logical keeper for Boobies (heh) because of the round and the lack of keeper worthy players on the rest of his roster. In our league, Murray is a must-start RB2, who if he’d been available in the 7th round you’d have snapped him up. So, it’s a good keeper, but surely Boobies (heh) was hoping for more from last year’s RB5.

David Johnson/Odell Beckham

I call these keepers “N/A” because you can’t really rank their status as keeper because of injury. Both were pretty obvious keepers (Luck-less and Iron would not have gotten their player if they hadn’t kept him).

Cam Newton

I call this keeper “meh” because drafting a QB in the 8th round isn’t bad. It seemed odd when Provost kept Newton OVER Matt Ryan, who was a better QB last year, and had a lower round penalty. That move proved good, as Matt Ryan is QB21. So that makes it good. However, Kirk Cousins (QB6) and Dak Prescott (QB2) went in the 10th, and Carson Wentz (QB1) went in the 13th. He was the 72nd pick overall on average in ESPN leagues (putting him in our 7th round), and was the 4th QB off the board in our league (behind Brady, Rodgers and Matt Ryan). He probably could have drafted Newton in this same spot (instead of using the keeper on him), which sort of negates the strategy of the keeper. So I give it a C+; only slightly above average, given the other parameters.

Antonio Brown

Certainly a top keeper, though doesn’t have the added round value of some others. But AB is far and away the top player at his position, and whatever spot you can keep that makes sense. Especially when you wind up picking 8th overall, to get a guy who would have been a top 3 pick is worth it. Other possibles for The Heroes: Devonta Freeman (2nd round keeper, drafted in the 1st round this year) or Tyreek Hill (8th round keeper, drafted in the 3rd this year). But like I said, when you can keep a talent as generational as Antonio Brown, you do it.

Jordan Howard

This is a good keeper, despite the inconsistency. LeSean McCoy would have been third round keeper (could have been 4, if Zeddemore had drafted that way); Todd Gurley would have been a 5th round keeper. (Though after last year, I understand why this wasn’t really a consideration: why keep a player you think will be ineffective?) But to get an RB1 (anyone in the top 10 RBs in our 10-team league) in the 8th round is kind of a no-brainer. The downside: this RB9 is 61 points BELOW the RB1/2. He’s just not scoring a ton of points. It’s too easy to call it a bad keeper; the reality is, he was the RB9 last year, and that’s a good 8th round value.

Doug Baldwin

This is another case of keeping a player with highest upside for the round he can be kept. Baldwin, at WR17 and a known quantity, would never be able to be drafted in the 13th round. It’s not unheard of to get a WR17 that late in a draft: shoot, Baldwin was the WR8 when he was drafted in the 14th round of 2015 (after Stephen Gostkoswki, Alfred Blue and Brandon LaFell). Since starting this write-up, Baldwin has been traded, and you’d think Luck-less would be looking at the keeper value as part of the reason (but he’s got David Johnson, so Baldwin will be available to be drafted next year). He was used to upgrade a Squad looking to make an upgrade, so I’d say this keeper certainly has value.

Isaiah Crowell

This keeper was easily the worst of all, especially when you consider he could have had Michael Thomas (currently WR22) a round earlier (he instead drafted him in the second round). Two of Reaper’s top 4 picks in 2016 and 2017 were the same players: Carlos Hyde and DeAndre Hopkins.But back to Crowell: he hasn’t scored double digit points all year, nor has he found the end zone. This is what happens when you play for the terrible, horrible, no-good, very bad Browns offense. (Poor Saquon Barkley is going to go from one of the classic uniforms in football at Penn State to one of the worst in the Browns. They never should have changed from their classic version, but that’s for another day). I guess I can’t fault the logic (a starting RB for an NFL team available in the 12th round). But it’s the Browns.

Le’Veon Bell

You really can’t go wrong with Lev Bell as a keeper, especially in the second round. He’s in that Antonio Brown Department: if you have him, you keep him wherever you can. He’s the RB3 and has scored in single digits only once (Week 1). He’s 20 points behind the top 2 RBs, but he will likely narrow that gap as the season goes along. Not much analysis needed here. Pickles is just kind of lucky he was suspended to start the 2016 season, or he wouldn’t have been available in the 2nd round. It was shrewd drafting last year, taking him as the third pick in the 2nd.

Melvin Gordon

I’m pretty sure the reason Gordon was even available in the 9th round last year was because he scored literally ZERO touchdowns as a rookie, and his previous fantasy owner in our league did such a good job shit-talking him leading up to and during the draft that everyone stayed away. He was the RB8 last year (and he missed the last 4 games of the season, if I recall), and has been every bit the prospect the Chargers expected when they drafted him #15 overall. Another no brainer keeper really: a top 10 RB available in the 9th round? Kept every time.

Final Analysis

I don’t know if it’s a coincidence that what are probably the two best value-based keepers (Bell in the 2nd, Gordon in the 9th) are on the rosters of probably the two best teams in the league. When you have a stud, you keep a stud. As late as you can.

New Keeper Prospects for 2018

• Leonard Fournette (2nd round)
• Maybe Deshaun Watson (8th round: since Scrote just traded for him)
• Dalvin Cook (3rd round: he showed enough that if he comes back from his ACL tear, he’ll be a steal here)
• Ezekiel Elliot (2nd, could have been 3rd, obviously fluid depending on the suspension situation)
• I’d say Carson Wentz in the 13th, but that’s Luck-less and no way he keeps him over DJ

Thanks guys! Enjoy your Sunday watching football!

2017 Midseason Report

It’s that time of year again. We’re halfway through the season for our Socially Acceptable Dungeons and Dragons league. We’ve got a very muddy picture for how the season is going to end up. It’s pretty jammed in the middle of the pack, which is really 90% of the league). Let’s take a look at some of the stats and other things for the first half.

Top position players

Quarterbacks

1. Carson Wentz (Tim - 131 points)
2. Dak Prescott (Chris - 130 points)
3. Alex Smith (Nate - 129 Points)
4. Deshaun Watson (Tim - 125 points)
5. Tom Brady (Chris - 125 points)

Thoughts and Analysis:

• Dak has been started exactly zero times, as Crobi has started Brady every week.
• It IS interesting that the top 5 QBs are owned by only three different owners. Perhaps some trades should be in the offing.

Running Backs

1. Todd Gurley (Nate - 147.5 points)
2. Kareem Hunt (Nate - 147.5 points)
3. Le’Veon Bell (Pete - 126.5 points)
4. Leonard Fournette (Ryan - 123.5)
5. Ezekiel Elliott (Provost - 118)

Thoughts and analysis:

• Fournette would have a shot to be the RB1 if he hadn’t missed last week with an injury.
• It’s not shocking Nate owns the top 2 RBs, when he’s also the top scorer in the league. Also not shocking: Melvin Gordon, also on Nate’s roster, is the RB6.

Wide Receivers

1. Antonio Brown (Nash - 123)
2. Tyreek Hill (Nate - 95)
3. DeAndre Hopkins (Kyle - 90.5)
4. A.J. Green (Kyle - 88.5)
5. Larry Fitzgerald (Pete - 86.5)

Thoughts and analysis:

• Seems unlikely that Fitz will maintain his spot in the top 5, given his QB is now Drew Stanton.
• The gap between AB and Tyreek is impressive. It’s the biggest gap between #1 and #2 players at a position.

Tight Ends

1. Zach Ertz (Provost - 93.5)
2. Rob Gronkowski (Nash - 83.5)
3. Travis Kelce (Kevin - 78.5)
4. Cameron Brate (Pete - 69.5)
5. Evan Engram (Kyle - 65)

Thoughts and analysis:

• Zach Ertz is the only TE Provost has played all year. Matt Nash has sat Gronk only once, due to injury.
• In the beginning of the year, I certainly wouldn’t have expected to see Brate and Engram on this list.

Defenses

1. Jaguars (Kevin - 102)
2. Rams (unowned - 80)
3. Steelers (Cusick - 75)
4. Lions (Kevin - 75)
5. Bears (unowned - 70)

Thoughts and analysis

• It’s interesting to me that the Jaguars are the top scoring defense AND they have a negative point week (-1 in Week 2).
• The Rams are probably unowned because they’re on bye in week 8. The Bears are unowned because they’re crappy, and benefitted from playing two bad offenses in the past two weeks.

Kickers

1. Greg Zuerlein (Nate - 96)
2. Ryan Succop (Cusick - 84)
3. Jake Elliot (Chris - 71)
4. Stephen Gostkowski (Nash - 69.5)
5. Kai Forbath (unowned - 66.5)

Thoughts and analysis:

• How much thinking do you really have to do about kickers? Greg The Leg is the leading kicker because the Rams offense, despite being the highest scoring in the league, struggles in the red zone.
• Maybe someone should pick up Kai Forbath.

Standings, and what they might mean

Team	W	L	PF	PA
The Jeff Fisher Effect	7	0	832.5	570
Hooper’s Heroes	4	3	705	651
Pedro Pickles	4	3	700.5	647
Scrote Squad	4	3	652	720.5
Team Provost	3	4	707	739.5
Grim Reaper	3	4	651.5	708
Outta Luck	3	4	609.5	649.5
Jameis Winston Zeddemore	3	4	585	644.5
Released Dix On Boobies	2	5	604.5	692
Iron Ryan	2	5	570.5	596

It’s really been a dominating year so far for The Jeff Fisher Effect. He’s got the most points for and the fewest points against. His 118.93 points per game would be the second highest in league history (behind Kevin’s 120.82 in 2016). His 7 game winning streak is the longest to start a season in league history. Only one other team has ever been undefeated this far into the season (Provost was 7-0-1 in 2014, his tie coming in week 2). His team looks dominant.

Other random piece of info: The league average score is 94.54 points per week; only three other owners (besides The Effect) average more than that, and they all average 100 or more (Pickles-100.07; Heroes-100.71; Provost-101).

The rest of the league is all separated by 2 games. Pedro Pickles looks pretty legit, and could be the second best team in the league. Hooper's Heroes is trending the wrong way at 4-3 (thanks to some major injuries), and Scrote Squad is just...there. His roster doesn’t seem fearsome (he’s got the 5th-most points scored) but he’s right there. If you take out the 56.5 point egg his team laid in Week 4, and he’s averaging almost 100 points a week, so perhaps the “just...there” analysis is a bit off.

The numbers seem to suggest Team Provost has been a little snake-bitten this year, scoring the second most points, while having the most scored against him. His team is a little bit scary, but could quickly be made less scary (and perhaps downright pedestrian) if the Zeke Suspension happens this year. He’s probably the best of the 3-4 teams.

Grim Reaper announced to the GroupMe that he was going to make the playoffs, but has gone 1-2 since. He might still be a player away. He’s got some WRs that might be attractive to some owners willing to take a chance. Outta Luck may just be that, but kudos for making the team respectable (two top-5 QBs probably help). Jameis Winston Zeddemore is the last of the 3-4 pack, but is definitely trending downward. He started 3-0, but has lost 4 straight. And he has no FAAB money left, so any noise he makes will likely be on the trade market. Or if he finds a diamond in the rough no one else notices.

Our 2-5 teams are headed in opposite directions. Iron Ryan put up his lowest total of the season, and has been bitten hard by the injury (Beckham) and stupidity (Marshawn) bug. And he’s got entirely too many members of a bad offense on his roster. Released Dix On Boobies has won two in a row, and put up decent point totals in both wins. And if Amari Cooper is as back as his large Thursday night output suggests, Boobies (heh) is a darkhorse to make the playoffs from the 2-5 slot. To be clear, I’m not suggesting 41 points is going to happen for Cooper every week (or maybe even ever again), but if it suggests he’ll get closer to 10-15 and the occasional 20-25 than the 4 he’d been averaging, it’s a good sign.

Who has the highest scoring positions?

As I’ve done in previous years, I’ve been tracking each position over the course of the year. Here’s who has gotten the most points from each position:

QB: Tim (131 points), Chris (124 points)

RB: Nate (259 points), Provost (202.5 points)

WR: Nash (190.5 points), Kyle (188 points)

TE: Nash (94.5 points), Provost (93.5 points)

FLEX: Nate (112 points), Provost (102.5)

D/ST: Chris (72 points), Kevin (70 points)

K: Nate (96 points), Cusick (85 points)

The FLEX points are sort of arbitrary, since it’s not the same player or position, and sometimes it makes sense to have your best player in that slot. But it’s interesting to see that the two top scoring teams have the top point totals from that spot.

I have also tracked the players that have appeared at each position for each owner. Interesting piece of trivia: though 7 weeks of the season, Tim has used 6 different defenses, and only doubled up on defenses in Week 7 (using the Vikings for the second time this season). I won’t bore you with more info on individual players, but you can find all that compiled easily on your individual page in the “2017 stats” page.

I’m working on a Keeper Report too, but don’t want to make this post too long (or longer than it already is). Look for it later today, or maybe even tomorrow.

And then….SUNDAY, SUNDAY, SUNDAY!