Week 12, or The Playoff Picture is Underexposed

We had one more team eliminated from the playoffs this week, and a new first place team. These next two weeks are going to be interesting, as we have a race for the top AND for the bottom.

Iron Ryan (101.5) vs. Team Provost (74.5)

Provost is our second team eliminated from playoff contention. and Iron Ryan kept his slim hopes alive. Zach Ertz scored 22 of Provost’s 74.5 points, and that’s not a winning recipe (I also find it funny that his RBs are McCoy and McKinnon, and NEITHER of them is probably even a little bit Irish). Provost would have won if he’d used Davante Adams and Robby Anderson instead of the other Devante (Parker) and DeSean Jackson. Just how razor thin Iron Ryan’s hopes are is outlined a little later, but if he keeps having days like this, he’ll at least win his matchups and give himself a chance.

Pedro Pickles (116.5) vs. The Jeff Fisher Effect (86)

The Jeff Fisher Effect is no longer just a team name: it’s a state of mind. Or perhaps it should be called the Andy Reid Effect, given the reliance on Chiefs players. Kareem Hunt has disappeared, Alex Smith has returned to form, and The Effect just isn’t getting the production he was getting through the first 7 weeks. And he’s making shitty lineup decisions, leaving Tevin Coleman on the bench, and dropping the Chargers D before the Thanksgiving game. Pickles, meanwhile, got a second straight blowup week from Keenan Allen (in his lineup this time) en route to the victory.

Grim Reaper (103.5) vs. Jameis Winston Zeddemore (102)

Reaper put it out in the email thread on Monday afternoon: he needed 16+ (technically 15.5) from DeAndre Hopkins to win. And he got 16.5 from D-Hop. If you watched the game, tt was pretty obvious the Ravens couldn’t cover Hopkins when you saw the giant rip in his jersey. He was a beast. Speaking of beasts: Alvin Kamara is one also (35 points). Zeddemore’s total looks somewhat impressive, until you consider that 47 of those 102 points were from Julio Jones. I don’t want to brush that number under the rug though: it might very well be the highest single week point total by a starter in league history.

Released Dix On Boobies (97.5) vs. Scrote Squad (91)

Boobies (heh) victory was a big one for the teams fighting for a playoff spot (except, of course, Scrote Squad) and a big one in terms of crowning The Worst (more on that later). Scrote’s players just didn’t show up this week, ending his 3-game winning streak, and keeping more hope alive for the lower seeds. Those teams owe Boobies (heh) a motorboat of gratitude (and no, that’s not where Provost drafted this year).

Hooper’s Heroes (158) vs. Outta Luck (92.5)

Good God, Big Ben and AB. I’m gonna say this: Heroes is bleeping scary with the Steelers offense playing this way. After combining for 64 last week, BB and AB scored 67 together this week. Luckless put up a reasonable score, but there’s nothing you can do when a team posts the two highest scores in the league in back to back weeks. And despite having scored the second-fewest points in the league, Luckless is in the hunt to sneak into the playoffs yet again.

Complicated Playoff Commentary

So here’s a breakdown of the standings, and points scored, and the remaining schedule (the * means currently in a playoff spot):

*Pedro Pickles 8-4 (1229.5)(Reaper, Provost)

*Hooper’s Heroes 7-5 (1323)(Zeddemore, Effect)

*Jeff Fisher Effect 7-5 (1283.5)(Scrote, Heroes)

*Scrote Squad 7-5 (1170.5)(Effect, Luckless)

Outta Luck 6-6 (1057)(Provost, Scrote)

Jameis Winston Zeddemore 6-6 (1067.5)(Heroes, Iron Ryan)

Grim Reaper 6-6 (1168)(Pickles, Boobies(heh))

Iron Ryan 5-7 (957)(Boobies (heh), Zeddemore)

Team Provost 4-8 (1187)(Luckless, Pickles)

Released Dix On Boobies 4-8 (1014.5)(Iron Ryan, Reaper)

Pickles is the only guy who has virtually locked up a playoff spot with two games to go. In theory, he could miss the playoffs, but he’d have to lose out, and get overtaken in points, most likely by Grim Reaper, who is 61.5 points behind. That matchup against Reaper this week for him is a big one: Win and he’s in for sure.

Hooper’s Heroes has the most points, and is coming off a run of 339.5 points in the last two weeks. (Add up the three highest scores of his week 13 opponent, Zeddemore, and you only get a total of 328.5.) He’s worked the wire and kept himself in the race, and if there’s any owner who looks like he’s a sure thing to make the playoffs, it’s The Heroes.

You’d think you could have said the same thing for The Jeff Fisher Effect through the first 7 weeks of the season. He has looked positively flaccid in the last 5 weeks. He’s second in the points race, and probably has the hardest schedule to finish out the season, facing Heroes and Scrote. There’s a possibility he misses the playoffs, though his point total should be an advantage.

Scrote Squad could be in the most trouble of the current playoff teams. His team lacks for a lot (see his appeal for RBs a week ago), and he’s facing another 7-5 team this week in what basically amounts to a must win for both. He only has a two point lead on Grim Reaper right now, so it may come down to points.

Grim Reaper seems to have the best shot, simply because of the highest point total of the current 6-6 teams. He’s got to get past the current top-seed in Pickles this week for that to matter much, but he’d own the tiebreaker if he matches records with any of the current 6-6 teams. And he’s only 2.5 points behind Scrote.

Zeddemore matches up against The Heroes this week, needing to win to keep pace. A loss this week, coupled with a Luckless win over Provost, and Reaper win over Pickles puts him behind the 8 ball.

Outta Luck may be just that. He needs to win out and get some help. He’ll need to finish with a better record than the next lowest team, because his point total is tiny. If he wins this week, and Scrote loses, that Week 14 matchup between them could be for a playoff spot. At worst, he he needs Reaper to lose out, he needs Scrote to lose out, and needs to outscore Zeddemore by 11 or more over the final two weeks (if Zeddemore also wins out).

How does Iron Ryan make the playoffs? Simple. He needs to win out (and finish 7-7), Scrote to lose out (and end up 7-7),

TL; DR - there’s a LOT of football still to be played, and a lot of different scenarios that could play out. All the teams with a shot at the playoffs are hoping for a win this week to just make their lives easier. So a quickie….

Preview of Week 13

Pickles vs. Reaper: Pickles wins and he’s clinched a spot.

The Heroes vs. Zeddemore: another high scoring week for Heroes (and a win) would basically lock up his playoff spot too. Zeddemore needs a win to keep pace with the pack for the last spot.

The Effect vs. Scrote Squad: the game that means the most to both teams. The winner will control his own destiny for a playoff spot, the loser may be on the outside looking in.

Outta Luck vs. Provost: Luckless wants to win to keep pace. Provost wants to win to avoid being the first person to end up as both a Champ and The Worst.

Iron Ryan vs. Boobies (heh): Iron needs too much help to make the playoffs and Boobies (heh) just wants to not be The Worst. Again. For the second time.

I hope Week 13 isn’t unlucky for you.

Oh, who am I kidding: of course I do. I want to win, goddammit. To hell with you all!

Week 11, or a three-way tie

Well Week 11 happened...you may see some salt in the following write up. (Stupid fantasy football)

Jameis Winston Zeddemore(129.5) vs. The Jeff Fisher Effect (90)

That panic that started to set in after last week for The Effect? Yup...fully formed. The wind in New York made a big difference for the Chiefs weapons, and it appears The Effect’s faith in those weapons might have been misplaced. Andy Reid sucks. Zeddemore told the Commish to suck it after his mid-week post pointing out how close his point totals were to a team that finished 0-fer last season. Allow this to be a lesson: do not tempt the fantasy gods. Interesting part of this matchup: the two highest scoring players were the Jacksonville D (27 points) and the Chargers D (24 points).

Scrote Squad (105) vs. Iron Ryan(100.5)

Who cares if Javorius Allen gets you only a half-point in a Ravens blowout: Brandin Cooks and Larry Fitz had a big days to lead Scrote to the victory. Sterling Shepard missed the game with an illness, though apparently Iron Ryan (the Giants fan) didn’t know that, and it probably cost him the game. Solid performances by both teams, little bit of bad luck for Iron Ryan; Scrote Squad keeps on the playoff pace.

Hooper’s Heroes (181.5) vs. Team Provost (67)

Holy shit. If the Steelers offense looks like that the rest of the season, The Heroes are going to be tough. Big Ben and AB were working together, and combined for a metric crapload of points (64 to be exact, or 3 short of Provost’s total) and Heroes put up the highest point total we’ve seen this season. He got more than 20 from the Ravens D, Latavius Murray, Adam Thielen and Stephen Gostkowski. Provost, meanwhile, LOST 5 points thanks to his $10 defense. It’s not like he would have had a shot anyway. At least he didn’t waste any points trying to win.

Pedro Pickles (119.5)  vs. Released Dix On Boobies (93.5)

Boobies (heh) is starting to get a little snake bitten. He’s got some really good players, and if they all produce on the same week, look out. But he hasn’t had luck with that, or the Texans D being consistent. Last week, they lost him a point. This week? Plus 8 points. Pickles team was pretty consistent across the board this week, and got a second straight big week from Mark Ingram. He hasn’t gotten much from Keenan Allen all year; until this week’s blowout on the bench. But It didn’t matter. If you can score 119 points and the highest scoring player on your roster is on the bench, you done did good.

Outta Luck (83) vs. Grim Reaper (79)

Reaper looked pretty good going into Sunday Night Football. And then Dak pooped in his big boy pants and posted a -3, opening the door for Outta Luck to walk through. Which Luck-less walked through, thanks to a Monday night shootout that saw Doug Baldwin and Jimmy Graham each score a touchdown. Both these teams are on the outside looking in at a playoff spot right now.

The Rod Tidwell Award

Ok, so it only took me 11 weeks of the season to name this thing something better than "Money Winner." Hooper’s Heroes picked up his first Rod Tidwell Award since Week 1. His 181.5 points are the second most ALL-TIME in the Smarter Than Phil Simms Fantasy Football League.

Standings

It’s now a three way tie for first place (record-wise), though The Effect still holds a slight edge on the top seed as the the league’s high scorer. Heroes absurdly high total this week narrowed the gap significantly, though he’s still a game behind. But that means he has an easy leg up on the 4th spot, right now. Heroes has almost 200 more points than Zeddemore, who has more points than Outta Luck, meaning if they all finish with the same record, Heroes gets the nod. Our first team has been mathematically eliminated: Boobies (heh) won’t be able to make the playoffs this year.

Preview

The marquee matchup this week is Pedro Pickles vs. The Jeff Fisher Effect, both at 7-4. The winner there has the inside track on the 1 seed, since they both have more points than Scrote Squad (who plays the 3-7 Boobies (heh)).

Outta Luck and Hooper’s Heroes are set to do battle at 6-5. This one is important for the aforementioned “finish with the same record” thing. The winner here has a leg up for that playoff spot.

Grim Reaper (5-6) faces Jameis Winston Zeddemore (6-5) hoping to get into the playoff himself. Rumor is that last week, Reaper made the bold prediction that he’d finish as the top seed. Now he’s fighting for his playoff life, and basically needs to win out to have a shot to make it in.

Team Provost and Iron Ryan are the matchup of 4-7 teams. If Provost wins, he keeps an outside shot at the playoffs, thanks to his total points. Iron Ryan is second to last in total points, so he’s virtually eliminated from the race. But hey, it’s socially-acceptable D&D, and you never really know how the dodecahedron is going to land.

It's the time of year again where we are grateful for the things we have and the things we're able to do. I'm thankful (again) this year for you guys and this league. As maddening (no, not John Madden) and frustrating as this game can be, it's all for fun. And I'm in leagues that are not nearly as much fun as this. So thank you all for making this league fun. (I wish there were a reasonable synonym for the word "fun." I mean..."merry" and "pleasant" just don't do it justice.)

On to Week 12! 

Remember, there's a bunch of games on Thursday this week, so get your lineups ready. 

MId-Week Post with some fancy schmancy stats

So The Commish and Co-Commish were commiserating on some fantasy chat this morning. The conversation reminded us of how terrible Kyle was last season, in finishing 0-14. Here's a snapshot of what Kyle's team looked with through Week 10 of last year:

Grim Reaper - thru Week 10, 2016
Points for: 830
Points against: 1057
Weeks with 100+ fantasy points: 0
Record: 0-10

Once we realized Kyle had no 100 point weeks (until Week 12 when he scored 100.5), we noticed one team THIS year has also not scored 100 points in a week yet. So what does his season look like?

Jameis Winston Zeddemore - thru Week 10, 2017
Points for: 836
Points against: 891.5
Weeks with 100+ fantasy points: 0
Record: 5-5


So the difference between a historically bad season which will likely never be equaled, and a possible playoff appearance is about 165 points against.

This has been an interesting stat segment, brought to you by Bud Light

Dilly Dilly!

(Sorry for the lack of GIF: giphy.com is blocked at work.)

Week 10, or The Fustercluck Continues

There’s only four weeks left in the regular season, which means we’re getting closer and closer to the playoffs. Which really, in the end, only matters for four people. But who will those four be?

Scrote Squad (128.5) vs. Hooper’s Heroes (74.5)

This was the only week’s matchup of 5-4 teams, and it worked out well for Scrote Squad. I think I may not have given The Scrote enough credit. Of course, he got a huge boost from Robert Woods, who isn’t going to put up 35 points every week. But his bench, while not overly deep, has some good players on it. Hooper on the other hand…uh oh. He’s 5-5 and in a playoff spot, but he’s really struggling to score points. Any time you start Frank Gore and Bilal Powell as your RBs, it’s probably not going to end well.

Released Dix on Boobies (110.5) vs. The Jeff Fisher Effect (100)

Panic may be starting to set in for The Effect here. It’s his third straight loss, and his one-time stranglehold on the top seed has loosened substantially. Boobies (heh) needed this win to try an keep pace in the playoff chase, but he’s got a lot of teams to climb over. The good news for him is that his team might be more talented than a couple of those teams. Unless Devonta Freeman is out for a while, he could at least make things interesting. The Effect was missing three of his top 6 scorers (the Chiefs were on bye), but with a one game lead now, it’s more nerve-wracking.

Outta Luck (94) vs. Jameis Winston Zeddemore (69)

Credit to Outta Luck for putting together a team that will compete, even after the loss of David Johnson. Golden Tate, Jimmy Graham and JuJu Smith-Schuster scored in the high teens, carrying him to victory. Zeddemore is stuck, as he’s hitched his wagon to Jordan Howard, who is part of a bad Chicago defense, and has a coach who challenges his team INTO a turnover (for reference, it’s not a very good strategy for winning, no matter how good a show of sportsmanship it is: see the play here). There just isn’t much talent on his roster, and the talent he does have has been disappointing. He did put up a pretty nice score this week though (had to).

Pedro Pickles (98.5) vs. Iron Ryan (58.5)

Pickles kept pace with a very thorough shellacking of Iron Ryan. Even 20.5 points from Sterling Shepard wasn’t much help. Of course, only one other player broke into double digits, and that was his quarterback.

No, not THAT quarterback. He did have a couple double digiters on his bench, but it wouldn’t have mattered. Iron’s overall lack of consistent talent showed here. Pickles, meanwhile, got 32 points from Mark Ingram (because the Saints suddenly are good at running the ball), which helped offset the 3 he got from the newly acquired T.Y. Hilton. (Pickles won’t complain though: Aaron Jones, who he traded away, played barely a quarter before going down with a sprained MCL).

Grim Reaper (115) vs. Team Provost(105.5)

Last week I called this one the closest to a must win we’ve had so far. And one team performed like it. The other lost Ezekiel Elliott for 6 weeks and is in trouble. It didn’t matter that Reaper’s bench QB (Kirk Cousins-27 points) outscored his starting QB (Dak Prescott-5 points), because every one of his skill position guys topped the 10 point mark. I don’t know if Isaiah Crowell will continue to do that, but hey...for this week, he’ll take it. Provost meanwhile has to trot out receivers like Robbie Anderson and DeSean Jackson, who are kind of the same guy. Anderson has been pretty good for him lately, but that’s not the pair you want to make a playoff run I don’t think. If Cam Newton keeps putting up games like he did Monday night though...who knows?

Other Observations

- What in the hell has happened to the Broncos defense? They’ve given up 92 points in back to back weeks (granted, it’s been against two very good offenses) but damn. Two years removed from a Super Bowl, and the Broncos look more like the stuff that comes out the backside of the horse than the horse itself.

Poop. In other words.

- Kirk Cousins was our highest scoring bench player this week, which is fine. He’s basically on Reaper’s roster as insurance anyway.

- Our standings continue to be a palindrome. Which is neat, but means literally nothing.

Money Winner

The Scrote Squad ball-tapped everyone again this week, earning his second straight Money Title.

Standings update

Perhaps there’s a little separation, but not much. OK, there's exactly as much separation as there could be. (That's awfully meta of me, isn't it?) Pickles and Scrote moved to 6-4, and occupy the second and third spots in the playoffs. The fourth spot is really close between The Heroes and Reaper, though Reaper has the edge. The points are so damn close (5 point difference).

Outta Luck is also 5-5, but more than 100 behind in points. Zeddemore has the same record but has the second FEWEST points in the league, about 50 behind Luckless (which means he's about 150 behind the other 5-5 teams. Provost is still second overall in the points race, but is 4-6 and in some trouble without Zeke (maybe). The good news for him, he's got about a 60 point lead, so if Provost ends up with the same record as Reaper or Heroes, Provost is in. Iron Ryan is also 4-6, and then Boobies (heh) is sagging at the bottom (had to), in record and in points.

We're on to Week 11! Luckless and Reaper is the major important matchup, as both are 5-5. Zeddemore draws The Effect, Scrote gets Iron Ryan, Heroes faces Provost, Pickles takes on Boobies (heh).

OH! And I almost forgot. I saw this truck on my commute home on Monday morning. I had some implication for our league.

Enjoy the week!!

Week 9, or a Giant Fustercluck in the Standings

Week 9 provided us with a major logjam in the standings, and virtually no drama. This was the first week this season (I’m pretty sure) where each matchup was either decided, or effectively over thanks to a huge lead going into Monday night.

(Sorry for the lack of GIFs. It appears giphy.com isn't working. Womp womp.)

Outta Luck (91) vs. Released Dix On Boobies (60.5)

Here’s a conversation the Commish had with Outta Luck on Sunday, after he chose to sit T.Y. Hilton.

So needless to say, Hilton had a big day, and was easily the highest scoring bench player of the week (he's also the WR4 in the league this season). But it didn’t matter, because Boobies (heh) laid an egg, posting his fourth sub-70 point week of the season. Certainly didn't help that AJ Green got ejected for Boobies (heh) after scoring a half-point. Luck-less might be in the (un)enviable position of having to choose between T.Y. Hilton and Jordy Nelson. You’d think this would be awesome...except that the QBs are NOT Andrew Luck and Aaron Rodgers, but Jacoby Brissett (ick) and Brett Hundley (double ick).

Scrote Squad (123) vs. Pedro Pickles (64.5)

Scrote picked up Jared Goff after losing the recently acquired Deshaun Watson, which worked out for him this week. Alshon Jeffery, who he also got in the trade for Watson, had a big day. The recently acquired Buck Allen also came up large. So Scrote looks like he got the good part of those deals (at least for now). Too bad for Pickles, every NFL has a bye week, and this week was the Steelers’, which meant no Le’Veon Bell. He also had bad luck with his Buccaneers offensive players, getting a combined 2 points from Cameron Brate and Mike Evans (who is now suspended for a game).

Grim Reaper (117) vs. Hooper’s Heroes (94.5)

Reaper’s attempts to make the playoffs seem to be paying dividends: his top two scorers this week (Alvin Kamara and Dak Prescott) were acquired in trades. This matchup was also an indicator as to how far Heroes has fallen. It also shows you what can happen on bye weeks. Five of the six players on his bench are on bye, and the other is basically no longer a viable fantasy asset (Ty Montgomery, who the Packers should just make a WR again). The major difference in this one: Reaper had solid days and lots of double digit point getters; Heroes had neither of either.

Iron Ryan (114) vs. The Jeff Fisher Effect (98.5)

For Iron Ryan: a second straight very good week, and a second straight win. For The Effect, a second straight decent but unspectacular week, a second straight loss. The Raiders remembered why they signed Marshawn Lynch, and used him as a battering ram for two TDs, Adrian Peterson reclaimed some glory days, and Rishard Matthews caught a touchdown for Iron Ryan. The Effect got his usual week from Todd Gurley, and Tyreek Hill, but the Denver D laid an egg against the Eagles. Iron Ryan didn’t even need Matt Prater on Monday night to notch the victory.

Jameis Winston Zeddemore (97) vs. Team Provost (82)

Frustrating for Team Provost: Ezekiel Elliott’s suspension keeps coming and going, and if it actually goes, he’s going to lose him basically until the playoffs (and perhaps through the playoffs). So he basically needs all the wins he can get while Zeke is playing. And he didn’t get one. He had good solid weeks from Zeke, Cam Newton and (inexplicably) Jared Cook, but got garbage point outputs from the rest of his team, and couldn’t pull out a win. Zeddemore put up his highest point total of the season so far (though he remains the only team without a 100 point week). AND he got a big ol’ zero from his quarterback. But Jay Ajayi finally scored a touchdown (did anyone see the run? Ajayi is SLOW, by NFL standards anyway), and so did Demaryius Thomas, helping offset that goose egg.

Money Winner

Scrote Squad is this week’s money winner, with his highest point total on the season.

Standings Analysis

Wow, these standings are a bleepin' mess, eh?

The Effect remains at the top at 7-2, and maintains a two-game lead over second place, after Pickles and Heroes both lost. Pickles, Heroes, Scrote, and Zeddemore are all 5-4, while Provost, Reaper, Iron Ryan and Luck-less are all 4-5. Each one has a legit shot at the playoffs. Poor Boobies (heh) isn’t very perky down there at 2-7, and will need a serious run to make it happen.

Even the points race is damn close in that middle pack. Except for Zeddemore, who has the second FEWEST points in the league, ahead of only Boobies (heh). And has almost 20 fewer points than Iron Ryan, who has the fewest points of the 4-5 teams.

Also interesting: Our standings are like RACECAR or MADAM, I’M ADAM: a palindrome.

Longest Palindrome I could find, courtesy of palindromelist.net:

Are we not pure? “No sir!” Panama’s moody Noriega brags. “It is garbage!” Irony dooms a man; a prisoner up to new era.

Week 10 Preview

There are FOUR big matchups this week in terms of playoff positioning in Week 10. Hooper’s Heroes and Scrote Squad are the only matchup of 5-win teams, so at least someone will have 6 wins after this week. Provost and Reaper match up at 4-5, where the winner would keep pace, and the loser would fall two games behind in the race for the #2 seed: however, he’d maintain a pace for the playoffs. You can’t really call that one a “must win” but both teams want to win to help them keep pace; winner stays up in the race for the #2 seed, loser falls (temporarily) out of the playoff picture. These four games won’t do much to solidify the playoff picture (in fact, they’ll probably just further muddy it up), but every win is important. Someone will need to separate from this middle pack, or the playoffs will be up for grabs straight until Week 14 (which would be pretty awesome, I admit).