Week 1, 2023 - First Time in a Long Time

Hey, you guys remember that Staples commercial from the late 90s?

That’s how I usually feel about Week 1. It’s fantasy football time. Everyone thinks their team is going to be good. Happiness! The most wonderful time of the year!

And then: everything comes crashing down. Man, the NFL really does change a TON every year, doesn’t it?

Aaron Rodgers made it 4 plays in a Jets career that had SO MUCH hype. Four plays! Aside from the fact that I can’t throw a football more than 10 yards in the air (probably), I feel like I could have lasted more plays. (This is likely the same kind of hubris as this guy, but waaaay less sexist.)

I’m guessing many of you in the league thought “hey, my team may not be the best, but it should compete.” And then…

 

Only two teams broke 100 points this week. (More on the history aspect later) The second highest scoring player on the week was a defense (sorry to all your Giants fans. I hope you went to bed early because….damn.)

Jeff Fisher Effect won the first Tidwell of the season, thanks to that Cowboys defensive performance. I’m considering donating the $10 winnings for the week to the Gene and Jerry Jones Family Foundation (not really, they don't need the money). Death Valley Driver got more points from Tyreek Hill, and had he won, I would have suggested he donate the money to the Tyreek Hill Foundation Against Domestic Violence (which does not exist).

It was not a good week for Iron Ryan or Dancin’ Dennis Nedry, as each failed to break 70 points. It’s early, but they both fired some big shots in the FAAB department; I-Ry added Gus Edwards on the heels of the JK Dobbins injury, and DDN added Kyren Williams and Kenneth Gainwell. Gainwell will be immediately as useful as the player he dropped Rashaad Penny was, thanks to an injury.

 

I also appreciate that I-Ry added Dicker the Kicker.

It was an interesting week for the teams not yet mentioned, who scored between 99 and 82.5 points. Luckily for Pedro Pickles (he, of the 82.5), he got matched against DDN.

It’s going to be interesting to see what happens in Week 2! 

Historic Week 1?

I thought Week 1 was weird from a scoring standpoint. Because it’s what I do, I went back and looked.

Year	Teams over 100 pts Week 1
2014*	3 (8 team league)
2015	6
2016	7
2017	1
2018	6
2019	9 (only Nate missed, with 97)
2020	6
2021	6
2022	5

So definitely a weird Week 1 for scoring. It looks like Week 15 of 2018 was the last time we had so few teams over 100 points. If you remember, that was probably the weirdest scoring week in, like, fantasy history. Pepperidge Farm remembers. So do Kevin and Tim.

I’ll set the over/under on teams getting to 100 in Week 2 at 5.5.

 

Historical Bench

In this weeks’ GroupMe chat – after a week where he picked a LOT of wrong players for his lineup – Utah Falco asked about the bench scoring. Again, I went back and looked. I don’t have historical bench data from the first three years of the league. By the time I started wanting to track the data, ESPN had only made only the starting lineups scores available in the league history. However, I have all the bench data from 2017-2023. Here are the bench totals all-time:

	Bench
Kyle	4,221
Tim	4,132.5
Cusick	3,993
Nate	3,859
Nash	3,757.5
Provost	3,674.5
Pete	3,585
Kevin	3,479.5
Chris	3,261.5
Ryan	3,007

 Note our man Cusick, sitting there in third place. I’d argue he’s the outlier in the top 5, as each of the other managers in the top 5 have winning records all-time. Here are the all-time records:

 

		Win	Loss	Tie	Win %
Tim		86	57	1	0.597
Kevin		77	64	4	0.531
Provost		74	69	2	0.510
Nate		73	69	1	0.510
Nash		74	68	3	0.510
Pete		66	62	0	0.516
Kyle		65	64	0	0.504
Cusick		63	81	1	0.434
Chris		63	82	0	0.434
Ryan		60	83	2	0.414

Notice that Cusick has the third worst record all-time, but the third HIGHEST bench points. Now, making the comparison based on record when there’s 9 years of win-loss data, but only 6 years of total point data doesn’t give a good comparison. So let’s see it based solely on point totals since 2017 (including this past week 1).

Points by STARTERS since 2017

	Starters
Tim	10,731.5
Nash	10,609.5
Nate	10,411.5
Kyle	10,352.5
Pete	10,268.5
Provost	10,185.5
Kevin	10,177.5
Cusick	9,772.5
Chris	9,687.5
Ryan	9,129.5

Points by BENCH since 2017 

	Bench
Kyle	4,221
Tim	4,132.5
Cusick	3,993
Nate	3,859
Nash	3,757.5
Provost	3,674.5
Pete	3,585
Kevin	3,479.5
Chris	3,261.5
Ryan	3,007

Bench points as a percentage of total points since 2017:

	% of Total
Cusick	29.01%
Kyle	28.96%
Tim	27.80%
Nate	27.04%
Provost	26.51%
Nash	26.15%
Pete	25.88%
Kevin	25.48%
Chris	25.19%
Ryan	24.78%

 

What does this all tell us:

In theory, this data tells us that Ryan is statistically the best lineup setter in our league. When dealing with what he’s got on his roster, he gets the most out of his lineup. The problem is: his teams generally suck.

We also notice that the top 4 STARTER point scorers over the sample size (Tim, Nash, Nate, Kyle) are also in the top 5 in BENCH scoring (Tim 2^nd, Nate 4^th, Nash 5^th, Kyle 1^st). So it’s perhaps as much an indicator of a strong roster as it is on lineup setting.

Which leaves us with Cusick: 7^th most points from his starters, but 3^rd most from his bench.

Here’s the total points since 2017: 

	Total
Tim	14,864
Kyle	14,573.5
Nash	14,367
Nate	14,270.5
Provost	13,860
Pete	13,853.5
Cusick	13,765.5
Kevin	13,657
Chris	12,949
Ryan	12,136.5

Of the top 5 in total points since 2017, only ONE does NOT have a championship in that time frame (sorry to point it out, Nash), and two of the top 5 have two titles.

Cusick wanted to say he’s “the best” at something. And, I think I’d agree: given all these factors he’s “the best” as setting a bad lineup.

Here Comes Week 2!

Week 2 is starting right now (seriously, the Eagles and the Vikings are playing as I type this). If the first quarter is any indication, Week 2 might suck as bad as Week 1. Here's hoping it's not.

Week 8, 2022 - First Weekly Notes of the season....let's ride!

Week 8 was a pretty good week for fantasy football. For the most part, if you had a big-name player this week, he paid off. I mentioned in the GroupMe chat on Sunday evening that we appeared poised to post our highest scoring week of the year, but we fell just short with 1105.5 this week (Week 5 had 1115 points). It’s also kind of interesting that Falco was the only team whose score ended in .5 this week. That’s (probably) the fewest since 2014, the first year of the league when we didn’t even allow fractional scoring.

Shall we do recaps? Let's ride!

Jeff Fisher Effect tramples Gravy Train 145-110

It’s easy for me to say, but I feel like $20 on Daniel Jones as a bye week fill-in might have been an overpay. What did work out for GT this week was Christian McCaffrey in what was really his 49ers debut; he’s so good and NOW he also has a good offense to be part of. Look out for CMC going forward. Partly bad luck for GT he had to play Jeff Fisher Effect who got a big week from Tua, to go along with the usual week from Stefon Diggs and Justin Jefferson (Juston Diggerson?) Worth noting, since I mentioned it in the Midseason Notes: JFE got 13 points from the defense this week, which MORE THAN DOUBLED his point output from the position this season.

Death Valley Driver topples Hardcore Sacks, 123-106

DVD got what he needed from his most important players: Dalvin Cook (23.5), Aaron Jones (18) and Tyreek Hill (25). The rest he got was just fine, enough to topple Hardcore Sacks, who is still the top scorer in the league, but now sits at 4-4. Sacks had some kind of shot going into Monday night, but Tee Higgins couldn’t get quite enough done in that game that was a dud in the first half, then really only got better for the Browns. Jalen Hurts was big for him, and he’s hoping Cooper Kupp won’t be out for long with his ankle injury (it’s looking like it’s day-to-day).

Iron Ryan triumphs over Utah Falco, 98-70.5

Here’s some actual footage from his matchup:

It’s worked out this season that neither of these guys seems to have many players who can give you a blowup week. I guess I-Ry has Jaylen Waddle, who put up 27 in this one, and the Jonathan Taylor injury has hurt him (pun intended). It’s a win for I-Ry, but there’s some luck involved, given that he scored the third-fewest points on the week.

Released Dix On Boobies tumbles Dancin Dennis Nedry, 133-118

D’onta Foreman had a huge day for the DDN, scoring a total of 3 TDS and 32 points….wait, hang on….I’m being told Foreman was on the bench for DDN this week. Oops. I’m not sure where DDN would have gotten him into his lineup anyway. He wouldn’t have sat Barkley or Kenneth Walker at RB, and his two WR spots and flex made sense over Foreman. Though perhaps this gives Foreman more of a case going forward. For Boobies (heh), it was the Derrick Henry and AJ Brown show, each going over 35 points.

Pedro Pickles plasters Team Provost, 115-87

I mentioned to a friend outside this league that the same manager had Alvin Kamara (37 points) and Tony Pollard (36.5) on the same team, and he basically said “wow, that guy must have the most points in the league.” Well, not quite. Because the rest of Pedro Pickles’ squad didn’t do much. So he didn’t win a Tidwell, but he won the matchup. The rest of his team didn’t NEED to do anything because Team Provost’s team did even less: he had 3 lineup spots that scored 0 or fewer points (DeVante Parker, Bucs D, Evan McPherson). I don’t care who you have, that’s hard to win with.

Looks like we've got a case of the Benchies

I said I’d look at benches this week.

We scored a total of 379 points from our collective benches this week. How does that compare to other week's this season?

Week 1*	402
Week 2*	377.5
Week 3*	489.5
Week 4*	445
Week 5*	371.5
Week 6	223.5
Week 7	246.5
Week 8	379

(*) = no teams on bye week

 

So it’s not the highest scoring bench week of the year as you can see. BUT…it’s the highest BY FAR of the three weeks we’ve had teams on bye. And it is even higher than a couple of weeks where there were no byes. I’d say that qualifies as a heavy bench week.

Also, FWIW, who asked about this in the chat? Kevin. Who leads the league in bench scoring this year? Kevin.

And for reference, there are no byes in week 12, but 6 teams on bye in week 14. Why? Why do the paste eaters in the NFL office do this?

Overdue Milestone Talk

While I was slacking off not writing notes this year, I missed some milestone wins. Dancin’ Dennis Nedry and Team Provost each earned their 70th league win back in Week 2 of this season. DDN is up to 73 total wins, while Provost is stuck on 70, having now lost 6 straight.

Two more managers are flirting with the 70 win mark: Gravy Train currently sits at 69 (nice) while The Effect has 68. We’ll see who gets there first.

Hardcore Sacks is the all-time wins leader at 78. Here’s the full breakdown through Week 8 of 2022.

DVD, Utah Falco and Boobies (heh) each earned their 60th win this season as well. It’s unlikely I’ll even mention this again until someone hits 100, which won’t be for another few years.

WAAAAY Too Early Playoff Preview

As of this writing, the top 6 teams (remember, we have 6 playoff spots now) all have predicted playoff percentages per ESPN of at least 74 percent. Gravy Train, the current 7-seed, has a PPP of 50. Honestly, he's got the 3rd most points in the league. I find it hard to believe his bad luck will continue if he keeps putting up points like that. Though it's also worth noting that he's 4-4 against the league average this season. He's also got one week where he scored 160 points (next highest total is 129). So his actual total might be a little inflated.

I will say it doesn't look good for the other three non-playoff teams: I-Ry, Boobies (heh) and Team Provost (all at 30% or lower).

Also, as the heading mentions, it's way too early. One of these teams swings a good trade or goes on a run, it's certainly not over.

But these Notes are. Sorry they weren't video this week. Maybe next week.

Week 7, 2022 - Midseason Notes!

 OK, yeah yeah yeah...no Notes until now this year. 

BUT: here's the best Notes ever. (Mostly posting it here so it lives forever.)

Week 17, or The One Where We Crown Another 2x Champ

In the now 8 full years of Smarter Than Phil Simms Fantasy Football, we have THREE 2x champions. Congratulations to Hardcore Sacks!

He was the best team all year, and basically coasted to the title. How best was his team? His 1,717 points scored in the regular season is the most all-time, and actually one of only 3 teams in league history to top the 1700 point mark. He averaged almost 9 points per game more than the second-highest scoring team.

Congrats, Tim. You earned it.

I mean, of course he did: when you draft Cooper Kupp, the WR1 (and it's not close) in the 4th round, and have a keeper like Austin Ekeler (the RB2) in the 6th round, you just need to not screw up your top picks.

But, thanks to injury, he DID blow his top pick! Christian McCaffrey didn't pan out. Like, at all. But the rest of us fell asleep at the wheel on waivers, and just kind of let Hardcore do what he wanted. He also made the league-winning moves of adding Justin Jackson (for no FAAB money) for Week 16, and Rashaad Penny for Week 17 (for much more FAAB, a few weeks before).

I will say, it was an excellent season all-around. Just as much fun a usual, and we'll be prepared for more of the same next year. 

I'm not sure what the status will be for our End of Season: The Gathering. With Omicron rearing its ugly head (and many with pregnant wives and unvaccinated kids) it might be best to hold off a little bit. I'll work to get you all whatever winnings you've earned through Venmo in the next few days, and chat with many of you for the Playoff Pool in the next few weeks.

If you have any ideas for new rules or changes, let me know. Can't wait for next season!!

Week 16, or the Longest Fantasy Season

Monday Night Football can be fun. Remember that Chiefs-Rams Monday Night game a few years ago? That game was FUN! Here's the link to the highlights if you want to remember.

Stupid NFL, blocking content.

But a Monday Night game in which one teams starting QB is a rookie making his first NFL start simply because the other QBs on his team had to miss the game for COVID reasons is a lot less fun. Especially if you were facing the Miami Dolphins defense. Sorry, I-Ry, though that matchup was already over going into that game.

A matchup that wasn't over going into Monday Night pitted Hardcore Sacks against Death Valley Driver. DVD needed a huge night from Jaylen Waddle, and almost got it. So close, yet so far away. In a stroke of bad luck for DVD as well, once James Robinson's Achilles fall off his body, so that 1 point is a big kick in the teeth in a semi-final matchup.

So we get Hardcore Sacks vs. The Jeff Fisher Effect for the championship. It's each manager's third title game, and each will be looking for his second title. Projections don't have this one particularly close, but it's a matchup of the top two teams in the league by record and by points this year. It should be fun!

Now the real question, which I know you are all wondering (ok, at least the 6 of you involved) is "what the hell did ESPN do with the consolation bracket?" In short, it's weird. Basically, it looks like the first week of the bracket was kind of for "seeding", and the next two weeks are more like the "tournament."

As it stands, you've got HRG who is 2-0 in the consolation, Pickles and Boobies (heh) who are each 1-1, and Provost, who's 0-2.

As it's laid out, the Worst will be the loser of Pickles and Team Provost, while the winner of yet another matchup of Boobies (heh) and HRG will be the winner of the extra scratchies. I apologize that I didn't realize how this consolation bracket was going to work before the season. I think I thought it was going to just eliminate the third week, and this past week was going to be the end of it. Way to go, ESPN.

I've got a couple ideas for how it can work better next year, but we can talk about that at End of Season: The Gathering (or perhaps End of Season: The Zoom Call?). If there's anything else you guys want to adjust for next year, either let me know, or put it in the GroupMe. I'll tabulate them and we can discuss them then. I don't know that there's a lot even worthy of changing, but if you've got an idea, I'm open to hearing it.

Also, Pedro Pickles is going to run our Playoff Pool again this year. I'll leave it to him to explain the thing in the GroupMe.

Hope you all had a wonderful Christmas, and enjoy the extra week of Fantasy Football this year!

Week 15, or ugh!

 It was miserable. It felt terrible. It sucked.

Am I talking about Week 15? Or the sickness that ravaged my family? Well, really it was both.

I didn't write the Notes last week because everyone else in my family was sick. It would be easy to blame the Notes coming out Thursday morning this week on the Tuesday NFL games, but really it was because I finally caught it. I fought valiantly but, like the entire unit in Rogue One, I ultimately lost.

Week 15 in the NFL was brutal. Looking at our fantasy numbers, it was one of the lowest point outputs on the year (and that included the two teams who were on bye). It was a tough week.

But it worked out for Iron Ryan and Death Valley Driver, as they won their matchups to move on to the semi-finals. It was a rough first-ever playoff appearance for Utah Falco, who basically saw Tom Brady drop a turd at the worst time possible for Tom Brady to drop a turd (it wasn't totally his fault though, since he lost his two best receivers).

Ultimately, the difference in the matchup for DVD was Jonathan Taylor's 67-yard TD run to ice the game on Saturday night. Without those 13 points (6 for the TD, 6 for the yardage, and 1 for the 40+ yard bonus), Sycamore pulls out the victory. 

And now, looking at the playoffs, it seems more to be a Playoffs of Attrition. At this point, who's going to get lucky enough to keep their players healthy (both not injured, and off the COVID list). We've tried to build depth, but COVID and the NFL's terrible management of it might wreck all those plans.

Hardcore Sacks was dealt a blow with Austin Ekeler going to the COVID list. Iron Ryan looks like he'll be without Tyreek Hill, half of the stack that propelled him to a win in Round 1. Projections right now have BOTH semi-final matches too close to call. It's going to be a helluva Week 16 in STPS.

And maybe in the NFL too.

In our Worst Bowl, it looks like there's going to be a third week of that too. The winners from this week play next week for the chance to earn the extra scratchers next week, and the losers this week play to avoid being the Worst.

Is it possible that Team Provost will be the first to go from Champ to Worst in a single season? Is it possible that Pedro Pickles could take the lowest scoring team in the league and earn extra scratchers for next year?

(Hey look! That gif says "anything" the exact same way I say "anything" right now.)

And now, I wish to take a few moments to wish you all a Merry Christmas. Another year of Smarter Than Phil Simms Fantasy Football is coming to an end (hey, we get an extra week this year!) and I'd be remiss not to thank you all for another fun year. I absolutely love this league. Everyone is engaged (ok, most of you), and you all make it fun to play in a league like this. Thank you.

And so, as you all sit down for a nice cup of hot cocoa on Christmas Eve, remember that I am thankful for you. You guys frickin' rock.

With that said, I will destroy all of you on my way to a championship. Later losers!

Week 13, or really a Week 14 preview

 We're headed into the final week of the first regular season of our new 6-team playoff format. I think this has been fun, and managed to keep a few more teams in the race longer. Which you'll see as you continue to read.

I've already mentioned in this space the teams that have clinched playoff spots. Hardcore Sacks (who has effectively clinched a top-two seed and a bye), Jeff Fisher Effect and Utah Falco (his first EVER playoff spot btw). Hardcore, thanks to his point total is most likely the top seed. Falco and The Effect will duke it out for the second bye. If both win, The Effect is the most likely 2-seed, thanks to a large lead in the points. If only one of them wins, they're the 2-seed. 

This week, we sort out the final 3 spots. Let's break it down...

Our current 5-seed, HRG, showed signs of life last week (mostly thanks to Kyler Murray) and sits in a somewhat favorable spot to get in. A Sycamore victory really improves his chances, but he can get in on his own with a win over Boobies (heh) this week.

DVD (currently 6th) gets in with a win over The Effect this week too. In a cruel bit of fate, he'll have to do it without his best player (because the NFL doesn't care about fantasy teams and scheduled Week 14 byes, which is equally as dumb as the 17-game season).

Which brings us to what I'll call the Trigger Game: Sycamore vs. I-Ry. Most simply, a Sycamore victory (or a tie) knocks I-Ry out; he can't get in without that 6th win.

However, an I-Ry win triggers several other interesting scenarios. What happens if:

I-Ry wins, either HRG or DVD wins

Whichever of HRG or DVD wins and they're in as the 4-seed with the 7th win; the loser is out. I-Ry and Sycamore would also both get in, thanks to their win total (or more appropriately, their "lack of loss" total).

I-Ry wins, HRG and DVD both win

It's still possible for I-Ry to get in here, but he'll need to make up the point differential between he and Sycamore. If he wins by more than 19.5 points, he gets in, and Sycamore drops out.

 

I-Ry wins, HRG and DVD both lose

All FOUR teams would have 6 wins, but Sycamore and I-Ry would only have 7 losses, so they would both get in. It would come down to point total for HRG and DVD, who are currently separated by 5.5 points.

But hold the phone...

There's still a path for Released Dix on Boobies to get in. 

If the above scenario holds true, Boobies (heh) can slip in if he can make up the point differential, which isn't really insane, especially given his opponent is a team he'd have to jump over.

• HRG - 1334 points
• DVD - 1328.5 points
• Boobies (heh) - 1320 points

So basically: Boobies needs to beat HRG by more than 14 to jump him in the standings. If he also outscores DVD by at least 9, he's the top of the 6-8 bunch and gets into the playoffs! (again, dependent upon DVD losing.)

Just how many of these hypothetical 6-8 teams would get in depends on Sycamore. If Sycamore wins, TWO of the HRG/DVD/Boobies (heh) trio will get in. But's it's all down to the points.

Just because I'm a glutton for punishment as I sit here at 6am writing these Notes...

What happens if HRG and Boobies (heh) tie?

A tie doesn't help Boobies (heh). But it would help HRG. An I-Ry win and an HRG tie would make 3 different teams 6-7-1. If DVD loses, all three of them would get in.

If I-Ry wins, DVD wins and HRG ties, I-Ry would need to make up that point differential between he and Sycamore to get in. (Somehow, I haven't mentioned yet that Sycamore and I-Ry are the 8th- and 9th-highest scoring teams this year. Our 4th-highest, Team Provost, can't even make the playoffs).

TL;DR - Sycamore, HRG and DVD control their own destiny; win and they're in. I-Ry is more complicated, and somehow Boobies (heh) has an outside shot.

So it's going to be an interesting Week 14 in STPS. Can't wait spend all day sitting in front of my TV, constantly refreshing the ESPN Fantasy app for updated projections that will turn out to be SO wrong by the end.