Tuesday, December 17, 2019

Week 15, or A New League Record

For literally the fifth time in the five years of the Modern Era of STPS, the #1 seed fell in the semi-finals. This time, Hardcore Sacks -- the best record and the most points during the regular season -- fell victim to just about the most insane output we will EVER see in this league.

Death Valley Driver cruised in this one, his 206 points a new league record by FAR. There was literally nothing he could do wrong. I watched the first half of the Patriots game, and every time the scroll on CBS showed someone had scored a touchdown, it was one of DVD's players. It was just an unreal combination of good players in the right matchups at the right time. (I mean...FOUR touchdowns for Kenyan Drake? Seriously?) There was basically nothing Hardcore could have done.

The other semi-final went similarly, just not as crazily. Hooked On A Thielen had a good headstart from Lamar Jackson, and then big weeks from a few players. Which was nice because he also had crappy weeks from a few crappy players. Pedro Pickles fell somewhat victim to the Cowboys thorough dismantling of the Rams defense; losing 8 points from your defense is a tough way to win a fantasy matchup.

In the Loser Bowl, The Jeff Fisher Effect and Hamilton Rod and Gun will face off for the Loser Bowl "title", and the chance for the extra draft capital. Team Provost also won, and avoided the chance for a second straight The Worst title. He'll play Released Dix On Boobies in the meaningless Loser game.

The Worst Bowl this year falls between Iron Ryan and Utah Falco. I-Ry had a good run at the playoffs until his team actually showed that they're terrible. Utah Falco has the luck of the CMC on his roster, but no one else. It would be an appropriate way for either of these teams to end up as The Worst, and the honor of holding the "Back Half of Horse" trophy for the year. (Which means it can finally emerge from it's current resting place, hiding in the back of the Commish's closet.)

End of Season: The Gathering
So to this point, we're not confirmed on a date for the event. It looks like Saturday, January 4th might be our best bet, and in the evening. We'll confirm location once we've confirmed date. Provost, you coming?

Also for End of Season: The Gathering, think about any rule changes you might consider proposing. I have a few, and I know of a couple others that may be proposed. But take a thought. Not looking for wholesale changes, because I think we all love our league setup, but maybe a tweak or two could be worth instituting. 

Like some sort of reasonable punishment for being The Worst.

Good luck to our finalists this week. It should be an exciting end to a fun season of imaginary football.

Cheers!

Wednesday, December 11, 2019

Week 14, Or Playoff Preview

It took us 14 weeks to decide who would play in the playoffs, and we used every single one of them.

Hardcore Sacks is our top seed again this year. He scored the most points and had the most victoies (well, was tied) for. He's hoping the Top Seed Curse isn't actually a thing.

Pedro Pickles is our second seed, thanks to a 7-game winning streak, over which he averaged about 108 points per game. He's a solid second seed.

Hooked On A Thielen is our three-seed. He overcame a shaky midseason where he seemed to either put up a ton of points, or none at all. He's an equally solid 3-seed, which will make that semifinal match pretty intriguing.

Death Valley Driver is literally limping into the playoffs. He was 7-3, and looked in the (Death Valley?) driver's seat for the top seed. Then he lost four straight, and needed Hamilton Rod and Gun to face off against another Tidwell winner (sorry, Kevin) to get into the playoffs.

Playoff Preview
Probably the coolest thing about our playoffs this year is that the finals is guaranteed to be a matchup for one team vying for its second championship (Hardcore and DVD) versus one team vying for it's first (Hooked and Pickles). I will make no other commentary on my desires for who wins, as I am the Commish, and I need to remain neutral on these things.

Loser Bowl Preview
Our Loser's Bracket winds up with some lucky bastards too. I mean, how in God's name did The Jeff Fisher Effect manage to end up 7-7 and the 6th overall seed, and thus cannot be The Worst? Lucky breaks toward the end of the season pretty much. He won his last two games by a TOTAL of 3 points. The opposite applied to Released Dix On Boobies: he just needed to win in Week 14 to make the playoffs for the first time ever. And he just couldn't. Bad luck. Those two will face off in the first round of the Loser Bowl.

The Bottom Four teams are a combination of good and bad. The aforementioned HRG kinda got jobbed. He's the THIRD highest scoring team in the league, but fell on some hard luck toward the end. Yeah, he faced several Tidwell winners, but he didn't put up a ton of points in those games.

Team Provost is a mess. Utah Falco is a mess, other than Christian McCaffrey. Iron Ryan had his luck run out toward the end of the season. (or perhaps he transferred it to The Effect?)

End of Season: The Gathering
I feel like we should probably begin to schedule our end of season social. As we usually have the event on Wild Card Weekend in the NFL, we're looking at January 4 or 5. I vote for the 4th, since it's a Saturday and we'll have the time to recover before the work week. But perhaps Sunday would work better for guys. I shall start a poll in the GroupMe.

On to the playoffs! Good luck men!


Tuesday, December 3, 2019

Week 13, or The Clear As Mud Scenarios

Ho. Lee. Crap.

With the league standings as they sit, we're in for a wild Week 14.


Rank
Team
Wins
Losses
Points
1
Hardcore Sacks*
8
5
1481
2
Pedro Pickles*
8
5
1354
3
Hooked On A Thielen
7
6
1459.5
4
Death Valley Driver
7
6
1424.5
5
Released Dix On Boobies
7
6
1371.5
6
Hamilton Rod and Gun
6
7
1410

*Hardcore and Pickles have clinched playoff spots.


Here's the Week 14 schedule:
Hardcore vs. HRG
Pickles vs. Boobies (heh)
Hooked vs. DVD
Out of playoff team vs. another out of playoff team
A different out of playoff team vs. the fourth out of playoff team

The Game of the Week: easily the DVD/Hooked pairing. The winner will be 8-6 and clinch a playoff spot. The loser will need some help (more on that further on).

- Hardcore is in, and has the best shot at the top seed, with 21.5 points more than the second most. All that matters for him is seeding.

- The same is true of Pedro Pickles. With the schedule set up as it is, we could have a maximum of four teams that are 8-6, so he'd get in, even though he has the fewest points of the current top 6.

- We'll skip DVD/Hooked for now, other than to say "winner gets in."

- If Boobies (heh) wins, he's in. If he loses, he's likely out. He trails Hooked by 88 points, and DVD by 53. A Boobies (heh) loss puts him and whoever loses DVD/Hooked at 7-7,  (at least) 53 points is a lot to make up.

- In order for HRG to get in: he needs to win, Boobies (heh) to lose, AND make up the point differential between him and the loser of the DVD/Hooked matchup; he trails DVD by 14.5 points, but Hooked by 49.5. He'll be hoping for a Hooked victory there, and a big week from his team (read: The Cowboys offense).

- The winner of the DVD/Hooked matchup will be 8-6, and will get in.

- The loser of the DVD/Hooked matchup will need Boobies (heh) to lose. As discussed a little higher, DVD and Hooked have the second and third highest point total in the league, so they will likely win any tiebreaker.

- OK, I guess I'd be remiss to mention that Iron Ryan and Jeff Fisher Effect are "technically" still alive for a playoff spot. However, if I-Ry makes it to 7-7, he'd need to make up (at minimum) 90 points; JFE would have to make up 190 points. So, yeah, that ain't happening.

I think it's absolutely great that the teams fighting for playoff spots all play each other, and that the four bottom teams basically get to start the Loser Bowl early. No one gets an "easy road" to the playoffs.

So good luck in Week 14 guys! It's basically playoff time already!!

Wednesday, November 27, 2019

Week 12, Or There's Only Two Weeks Left

***So the Notes this week are going to look a little different. I won't do specific recaps, but will look AHEAD to the scenarios for weeks 13 and 14.***

We've got 4 teams at 7-5, and those teams are currently sitting in playoff position (Hardcore Sacks, Hooked on a Thielen, Death Valley Driver and Pedro Pickles). Honestly, it wouldn't surprise me even a little bit if those were to be the playoff teams. But...I'm not sure that can actually happen.

This week, one of those 7-5 teams will fail to reach 8-5; DVD and Pickles play each other, with the winner being allowed to keep pace for the top seed. DVD follows that up with Hooked in Week 14, so he's got the toughest schedule over the next two weeks.

Hardcore, by contrast, faces zero teams currently in the playoff race (Team Provost and Hamilton Rod and Gun), so he seems the most likely to maintain his spot on the playoffs. Pickles gets Boobies (heh) in the final week of the regular season.

If the DVD-Pickles showdown is the number 1 game of the week, the HRG-Boobies (heh) showdown is 1a. Both are 6-6, and the winner could take over the final playoff spot with a win (provided they have the points to overtake the DVD-Pickles loser; Currently, HRG leads Pickles by 60 points, while Boobies (heh) is up by 6 total points. So if Pickles loses, there's a good chance we have a different 4th seed going into Week 14.

The only team that's been mathematically eliminated is Utah Falco. His best hope is to be 6-8, which won't get it done. He may be the 10 seed going into the Loser Bowl, and could be the front-runner for his first Worst "Title."

While not mathematically eliminated, The Jeff Fisher Effect is virtually eliminated. The best he can hope for at this point is to finish 7-7, and he has no chance of catching even the lowest scoring of the four current playoff teams. How much of "no chance" are we talking here? Pickles, the lowest of the 4 so far, has 1252 points; JFE has 1087.5. That's a difference of 164.5 points. In other words, JFE would need to outscore Pickles by an AVERAGE of 82.5 points a game, which is a point total JFE has failed to eclipse four times this year. So while theoretically possible, it just ain't gonna happen. JFE is basically just hoping to not be The Worst this year.

CURRENT PLAYOFF TEAMS - Opponent in Week 13 and 14
Sacks - Provost, HRG
HOTA - Falco, DVD
DVD - Pickles, HOTA
Pickles - DVD, Boobies (heh)
------------------------------------

CURRENT NON-PLAYOFF TEAMS - Opponent in Week 13 and 14
HRG - Boobies (heh), Sacks
Boobies (heh) - HRG, Pickles
I-Ry - JFE, Falco
Provost - Sacks, JFE
JFE - I-Ry, Provost
Falco - HOTA, I-Ry

So looking ahead to Week 14, the early game that sticks out is the HOTA-DVD matchup. It could possibly be a "winner gets a playoff spot" game.

It's somewhat interesting (and also pretty great) that the luck of the schedule draw has the current Bottom 4 teams all matching up in the last week of the season. It will be huge for Loser Bowl seeding, and likelihood of "winning" The Worst.


TRADE DEADLINE
Just a reminder that the Trade Deadline is tonight! I'm not sure there will be a flurry of deadline action, but I feel it's my duty to inform you of such. But also, I mean....shoot your shot.

ANNUAL THANKSGIVING APPEAL
Also wanted to wish you all a Happy Thanksgiving. And, as usual, say I'm thankful to have a league full of guys I enjoy playing with, and make it easy to be a commissioner. You guys are the best league a guy could ask for. <raises glass>

Wednesday, November 20, 2019

Week 11, or the Fustercluck Miraculously Gets Worse!

So, I give up. I have NO IDEA what's happening in this league any more. We really had a chance to separate out the haves from the havenots... but we dropped the ball like OJ Howard.



It was also pointed out to me that looking at the the ESPN projections, every team with a lower projection actually won this week, which might be a league first. (Too bad your commish doesn't have an answer for that.)

ENDURKAST! (Google translate it, if you can't figure out what it means)

Iron Ryan does Non-I-Ry things, tops Hardcore Sacks, 129.5-117
So this might be the weirdest thing ever, but still not the weirdest thing of the day. Our second lowest scorer posts the highest score he'll post all year, thanks to some random blowup games by random dudes (Ross Dwelly? C'mon.) And he didn't even need his stud waiver pickup Brian Hill, who did virtually nothing, or his kicker, who did literally nothing. As high a score as Hardcore put up (second highest of the week), he would have won if he'd swapped out the Cowboys D for the Ravens D.

Released Dix On Boobies vs. The Jeff Fisher Effect, 108.5-107.5
Going into Monday Night Football, The Effect needed 9 points from Melvin Gordon to pull out the win. He got 9.5 from Melly to keep his slim playoff hopes alive. The Effect's hex on opposing players going down with injury kept up, with James Conner going down super early in the Thursday night game. But Boobies (heh) got 31 from John freakin' Brown and 29 from Jimmy G...just wasn't enough.

Utah Falco silences Hamilton Rod and Gun, 105-82.5
It's the second straight week Falco has gotten a zero from a spot on his team from a player who didn't play....and the second straight week it hasn't cost him. I think we can thank Christian McCaffrey for that; dude scored 25.5 points WITHOUT A TOUCHDOWN! He also finally got something again from Todd Gurley. HRG put up the second lowest score of the week, partly because Tevin Coleman stinks, Amari Cooper was injured, and he insists on putting T.J. Hockenson in his lineup (and keeping AB on his bench).

Pedro Pickles escapes with victory over Hooked On A Thielen, 103-98
Going into Monday night, this one looked pretty sewn up for Pickles. And then Travis Kelce did Travis Kelce things, and turned his possible blowout into a respectable performance. The return of Kareem Hunt has really sapped the ceiling for Nick Chubb, Terry McLaurin has a terrible QB throwing to him, and Adam Thielen is injured as hell. But hey....at least HOTA's got Lamar Jackson. Pickles' win here actually puts him in line for the 4th playoff spot. Thank you, Michael Thomas and Mark Ingram.

Team Provost escapes Death Valley Driver, 88.5-42.5
How bad was DVD's performance this week? His 42.5 points was the second lowest point total OF ALL-TIME. Admittedly, some of it is bad luck: Tyreek Hill (who could have doubled DVD's output on his own) went down with an injury 6 plays into Monday Night Football. Also can be tough when your two best players are on bye weeks, and the TE you've been riding hard all year is suddenly out with an injury. Provost had his two best players on bye also, but managed to get a TD from Tarik Cohen so...yay?

The Money of Champions
I got a message last week from Iron Ryan, paraphrased here: "If I can win a Tidwell, my year will be complete." My response? "Yeah, it's not happening for you or me this year, buddy." I was wrong. Iron Ryan won his first EVER Tidwell this week. He's the 10th owner to win a Tidwell Award. If that number sounds familiar, it's the number of owners we have in the league. He's literally the last to win one. Congrats?

What's Happening Now?
As I mentioned before, Pickles currently sits as the 4th seed in the playoffs, behind DVD, Hardcore and Hooked. Based on record, I-Ry is the first one out of the playoffs. After that, HRG, Boobies (heh) Provost and The Effect are all 5-6, ahead of 10th place Falco at 4-7.

I-Ry gets Hooked this weekend: two 6-5 teams wanting a win to solidify their position. Provost and Boobies (heh) faces off at 5-6, both needing a win to basically stay alive. Pickles (6-5) takes on Falco, hoping to solidify a playoff spot. Falco isn't mathematically eliminated (he's 6th in points), but an 8th loss would probably do it for him. A seventh loss for The Effect would basically doom him, thanks to his putrid point total; he draws Hardcore, against whom he's 6-3 all-time, and riding a 4-game winning streak. (I jinxed myself, didn't I?)

It's the Dozenth week. Three more to the playoffs, and it's going to be a wild ride. Good luck everyone.



Except Tim.


Wednesday, November 13, 2019

Week 10, or The Picture Gets Clearer?

We're heading into the home stretch now, with four games to go in the regular season. Perhaps next week I will regale you with the myriad playoff scenarios, but for now, it simply appears that two teams are hanging on for dear life like Sarah in the opening scene of Cliffhanger.

Shall we do some recaps?

Hooked On A Thielen goes ham, tops Hamilton Rod and Gun 147.5-115
It's a good output for HRG, something he's sometimes struggled with this year. He just ran into the Tidwell winner this week, as you saw him complain about in the GroupMe. But when Christian Kirk (who I honestly can't imagine was anything but an emergency "please get me 8 points" start) and Lamar Jackson have days like they had for HOTA, it's going to be tough to beat. Even Derrick Henry's 33 points weren't quite enough to rescue HRG.

Death Valley Driver sounds death knell on Jeff Fisher Effect, 126-66.5
DVD continued his run toward the top of the league, and basically handed The Effect his walking papers for the playoffs. DVD enjoyed the return of Patrick Mahomes and the effect on Tyreek Hill and a Kyler Murray game against a bad Bucs D. MEanwhile, the only thing that even worked at all for JFE was...his bench. Two double digit scorers in his lineup compared to four on his bench. Not that it would have helped him make up the 60 point differential.

Hardcore Sacks survives two stinkers, but still whips Released Dix On Boobies, 120-86
David Johnson and Cooper Kupp did nothing, and Hardcore STILL had enough firepower to win here. Mostly thanks to Aaron Jones, who somehow has gone all 2016-LaGarrette Blount and only scores touchdowns these days. Boobies (heh) was stuck with Matthew Stafford injured, and had to ride with Jimmy G which didn't work out for him.

Pedro Pickles welcomes Mahomes back, takes out Iron Ryan 111.5-102
Patrick Mahomes came back and did Patrick Mahomes things, but it was really the Rams D against Rudolph the Red-Nosed QB that saved him in this matchup. I-Ry is basically thrilled that with George Kittle out, his keeper O.J. Howard finally decided to do something. He did have a solid day all around, but the newly acquired David Montgomery failed to produce much of anything.

Utah Falco catches a break, tops Team Provost 98.5-84.5
Falco finally caught a break with a team NOT putting up a huge week against him to squeak out a win. He got lucky that even an INACTIVE LeSean McCoy in his starting RB spot worked out for him, largely because he had Christian McCaffrey and the 49ers defense. Provost had bad luck that Tyler Lockett went up against the Niners, but you'd have expected more out of Mike Evans (against the Cardinals), Saquon (against the Jets) and Drew Brees (against the Falcons).


Money: The Other White Meat
Hooked On A Thielen took home his third Tidwell of the year this week (thank you, Christian Kirk).

What's Happening This Week
The Matchup of the Week this week looks to be HOTA (6-4) vs. Pickles (5-5). Pickles is in the thick of the playoff hunt, and a win would certainly keep him there. A loss, however, would make the uphill climb a little steeper. HOTA will certainly be looking for that 7th win to keep pace with DVD (who's 7-3 and faces 4-6 Team Provost this week). I-Ry (5-5) needs a win over Hardcore (6-4) this week to keep pace, thanks to his low point total. HRG (5-5) doesn't want to lose to the 3-7 Utah Falco squad, and the 5-5 Boobies (heh) team certainly doesn't want to lose to JFE. ( JFE basically needs to win out and have everyone else end up 7-7 or worse to make the playoffs. That, or start averaging 200 points a week. Neither seems likely.)

We're on to Week 11.