Championship Week, in which we crown a new (repeat) champion

On Monday night, Commish wondered how horrible it would feel for Team Provost if Stefon Diggs scored a 40 yard touchdown, during which he tweaked a hammy and the Bills decided to sit him the rest of the game because they're already in the playoffs.

Well, Diggs scored a 50 yard touchdown, and it was over. Congratulations to TEAM PROVOST on his second Smarter Than Phil Simms Fantasy Football Championship.

As it has often seemed in our league (and throughout most of fantasy football), the best team in the regular season has not won the title. I think we can say that wasn't the case here; Provost scored the most points in the regular season and he put up the most points on Championship Week. It was a pretty impressive year. His final overall record of 14-2 is the best record in league history, and he scored the most points we've ever had in a regular season.

Elsewhere, in the league....

It appears that Iron Ryan was a Week 15 gameday shower away from a league championship. Yes, there's some speculation here, but had he swapped out the injured Zeke and put in Tony Pollard (the highest projected RB on waivers) in Week 15, he'd have defeated the Provost Train and moved into the finals. And then, he scored more points this week than runner-up RTTM, and could be walking home with a title. Alas, it's not to be. But he won the third place game though, and the newly minted cash that goes with it.

We also had a nailbiter in the Worst Bowl. You guys saw the GroupMe when Hardcore Sacks asked for no stat correction, because he was winning by 1.5? Guess what?

THERE WAS A STAT CORRECTION!

Or maybe it was a point fix from some kind of audit (it's not listed under the "stat corrections" on ESPN), because that lead and apparent margin of victory is down to .5. Crazy!

Also, that this was the highest scoring matchup of the year was just peak-2020.

Our winner of the extra scratchers for the draft is Death Valley Driver, who rode Josh Allen and Davante Adams to victory over Utah Falco (who, strangely enough, won the extra scratchers last year).

Those extra scratchers will be provided by Pedro Pickles, who as he mentioned in the group chat, will now sink into a deep depression. He had some rotten luck this year, and really does not deserve to be The Worst, but that's the way the cookie crumbles. 

The deserving Worst is absolutely Jeff Fisher Effect. Though, he turned it on when it "mattered", breaking 100 points in consecutive games for the first time all year, and winning as many Pooper Bowl games as he did regular season games. He might have gotten a little lucky in that his opponent decided he was too good for a meaningless game, and started TWO players who were inactive on game day (CEH we knew from last week, DeVante Parker was a game day inactive). I'd like to figure out some sort of incentive for this game, just to keep everyone interested all the way down to the end.

So that's it: that's a wrap on the 2020 Smarter Than Phil Simms Fantasy Season. 

I'm behind on my stat updates, but you can believe I'll be finishing them up, and poring over them for stat nuggets for our End of Season: The Gathering.

Speaking of End of Season: The Gathering: We can do a Zoom call, similar to the draft, where we can also do our standard playoff pool, and I'll rattle off the aforementioned stat nuggets and stuff. I think then we can also plan an actual in-person The Gathering when the weather warms and we can all be outside.

In closing, once again, I say thank you. I hope you all enjoyed the fantasy season in STPS. I look forward to 2021.

For more reasons than that.

Week 16, Championship Week, Christmas Eve

Ben Roethlisberger and the Steelers.

Weren't they 11-0? You're not supposed to lose to the Cincinnati Bungles SO spectacularly. (Honestly, I was OK with it; the Steelers D laid an egg which helped me get into the Finals in another league.)

And that spectacular failure did NOT help Boobies (heh) in his first ever playoff appearance. Big Ben was bad, and JuJu was even worse. Bad JuJu. (Get it?) Those two got Boobies (heh) a combined 6 points, and he couldn't top Regress to the Mean, who advances to his second consecutive Super Bowl.

In the other semi-final....well, we had a manager who stopped paying attention. Zeke was declared out about an hour before kick-off and I-Ry didn't take him out of his lineup. Substitute in the other Cowboys RB for the week, and I-Ry takes the victory. Instead, he took a 0 and an L. Tough way to go out.

So it's Team Provost vs. Regress to the Mean for the Title. At least they don't have to agonize over it with four straight days of football.

In the Pooper Bowl, it's Falco and DVD playing for next year's extra scratchers. Falco took out Hardcore with a Tidwellian performance (which doesn't technically count as a Tidwell), and DVD won a pillow fight with HRG. But hey, a win's a win, and Falco and DVD are each hoping for one more to potentially improve their draft stock for next year.

This year's Worst Bowl features Pickles and Hardcore. Pickles fell to JFE, which triggered some ribbing in the GroupMe. It's kind of both managers season in microcosm: JFE putting up a mediocre number of points most weeks, and Pickles either booming or busting. He busted, and JFE avoids the Worst Bowl, and advances to the only matchup on the year that doesn't mean a damn thing.

So we've come to the end of another year. Perhaps we'll be able to gather in person for the year-end festivities, but likely not. We may have to do another Zoom session, and hopefully we'll be able to gather in person for the draft and other frivolity next season.

I mentioned it on Thanksgiving, but I'll say it again here at Christmas: Thank you. Thank you for another great season of Smarter Than Phil Simms Fantasy Football. I hope this season has been a little bit of a distraction for you in an otherwise trying time. I hope you enjoyed another year of bad beats, and deez Notes, and watching football.

Merry Christmas to you and yours!

Week 14, or The Anti-Climax

With only one playoff spot up for grabs in Week 14, it didn't figure to be that exciting. But it could have been MORE exciting. I-Ry took care of business, but kind of limped into the playoffs with a win over The Effect (who, it's worth repeating, is JUST AWFUL).

DVD had a shot at the final spot (which went away when I-Ry won) but flopped when it mattered. To be fair, his opponent scored the second most points in the league this week, so it would have been super tough to beat him anyway, but he was 1 of 3 teams that failed to top the Century Threshold.

So now we head into the Playoffs and Pooper Bowl. Week 15! Get your popcorn ready...

Playoff Previews

#1 Team Provost (12-2) vs. #4 Iron Ryan (9-5)

Team Provost looks like the favorite this year; he's 12-2 and has the most points in the league by over 100 (272 points more than his opponent in the first round). By points, he has the QB3, the RB4 and 5, the WR 4 and 6....AND Nick Chubb. I-Ry needs a big week from his people, and some luck.

#2 Regress to the Mean (9-5) vs. #3 Released Dix On Boobies (9-5)

RTTM had the second most points in the league this year (though he needed a Tidwellian effort in Week 14 to get there; poor Pedro Pickles) and looks like he could challenge Provost. But certainly don't count out Boobies (heh) who has major upside potential in AJ Brown and Dalvin Cook.

Pooper Bowl Previews

#5 Hamilton Rod and Gun (7-7) vs. #6 Death Valley Driver (7-7)

The question here: which HRG shows up? Or really, does he get big games from Derrick Henry and Tyreek Hill? If he does, he's really hard to beat. Though DVD has Davante so...

Neither of these guys is too worried. They are not in the running for The Worst.

#7 Utah Falco (6-8) vs. #8 Hardcore Sucks (5-9)

Hardcore has been on something of a role since Austin Ekeler has returned. And DeShaun Watson has been better than the beginning of the year. And the Colts decided to give the ball to Jonathan Taylor last week. Falco was hoping to have CMC back, but that's not to be. Loser moves on with a shot to be the Worst. Winner can earn extra scratcher for the draft next year.

#9 Pedro Pickles (4-10) vs. #10 The Jeff Fisher Effect (2-12)

HAHAHA. Who are we kidding here? It's Pickles. He's gonna win. The Effect is dreadful. Just god awful.

Other Random Thoughts

How have you guys not suggested that we call it the Pooper Bowl before? It's a great name, and I'm sad I never thought of it. I saw it on a Reddit board and decided it needed to be the name for us immediately. And so....it is.

What do you guys plan to do on Sunday during the fantasy semi-finals?

Week 13, or Sowing the Playoff Seeds

 It looked, going into Week 13, that HRG had a very legitimate shot at a playoff spot. His point totals were there, he was coming off a huge week with Tyreek and Derrick Henry going bonkers...

And then he GroupMe'd everyone requesting no Notes this week.

Which, of course, meant, he put up a score (70) that Tyreek and Henry beat the previous week (91.5).

It's a score that you could have COMBINED with I-Ry's (65) and STILL not beaten his opponent.

Let it not have been said that Boobies (heh) failed to step up. He has secured his first EVER playoff berth.

Who didn't step up last week? Well that was I-Ry. His loss and 65 points put him in a position where he could miss the playoffs! Lucky for him he's facing the hapless (and I mean HAPLESS) Effect this week.

Our top 3 teams are in, and are just playing for seed. Provost is the #1 seed. RTTM and Boobies (heh) have equal records, and if they come out of this week with equal records (either both winning or both losing) the points will make the difference; RTTM currently holds a 16 point edge. If one wins and the other loses, the winner will take the #2 seed.

The 4th spot is still up for grabs. I-Ry is in the best spot; beat the Effect and he's in. But...

DVD still has an outside change. He needs:

1.  a win over HRG
2. an I-Ry loss AND 
3. to maintain his 9.5 point lead over I-Ry

So it's possible. Just seems...

Everyone else is just playing for seeding in the Loser Bowl. The Effect has locked up the "top" seed there, and is the odds on favorite to end up as The Worst. It seems everyone else is trending up, and he's....not. Trust me....he stinks.

For real. Bad. 

I'll offer previews for the playoff and non-playoffs next week. For just enjoy the last week of the regular season. It only means anything for, like, two people.

Week 12, or a Week 13 Preview

 So that was probably the weirdest week of NFL/Fantasy Football that there's ever been. And if it weren't 2020, I would say that ever will be. But based on how the NFL is dealing with COVID-19, it seems VERY possible that we'll top how weird that was.

No one really needs recaps from last week. The anticipated I-Ry v. Boobies (heh) matchup wound up being a pillow fight compared to the HRG v. Pickles showdown. But HRG (thanks to Tyreek and Derrick Henry) did what he needed to do to win. Pickles is eliminated from the playoffs.

I-Ry's win keeps him in the third spot (both he and RTTM are 8-4, but RTTM has more points). Boobies (heh) is still in the 4th spot, but that's not where he wanted to be.

Not when this week he gets HRG, who's in 5th and wants that final playoff spot. This one is the Game of the Week (NBC called me about flexing it to Sunday night). A win over Boobies (heh) this week will push HRG into that final spot with one game to go, thanks to his point total. In Week 14, HRG gets DVD.

Provost topped the Effect, sending him to 10-2. He was locked into the playoffs anyway. RTTM couldn't beat Hardcore, but he's still strongly in a playoff spot. His points will likely get him in, even if he loses out. Provost and RTTM play each other this week in a possible finals preview.

A HRG win over Boobies (heh) this week moves HRG to 4th and in, and drops Boobies to 5th and out. Should that happen, they both have Week 14 matchups with opponents not in the playoffs.

RTTM has more points than I-Ry by 36.5, so he's likely to stay ahead, even if they both have the same outcome. 

DVD can still get in, but his road is quite a bit tougher. He needs to win out (against I-Ry and HRG). He ALSO needs I-Ry to lose in Week 14 (to The Effect) AND make up the current 30-point differential on I-Ry. He's not concerned about the point differential if Boobies (heh) loses out (to HRG and Hardcore) but he'd have 35 points to make up if they end up with the same 8-6 record.

The real kick in the crotch is for Pickles, who's 4-8 and has the third most points scored. He's going to miss the playoffs, but has a real shot to win the Loser Bowl and get the extra scratcher boost next year. His problem has been consistency. He's either in the 120s or higher (except last week at 110), or down in the 80s or lower. It's a weird year (as if I haven't said that enough already).

Hardcore, Falco and The Effect are basically hoping for just enough to avoid being the Worst. Because it's gonna be one of these three (probably The Effect).

Let's see what happens in Week 13! Gonna be fun!

Week 11, or the Pre-Thanksgiving edition

 We're coming up on Thanksgiving, and I can't remember a week this early in the season where the playoffs seemed to have so little drama.

By "little drama," I mean the 8 teams not in a playoff spot having losing records, and the closest is 2 games out of a playoff spot with 3 games to go. It doesn't look good.

The 4 teams in the playoffs (Team Provost, Regress to the Mean, Released Dix On Boobies, and Iron Ryan) are all 7-4 or better, and look to basically be jockeying for position.

League-wide Recap

Team Provost maintained his stranglehold on the league. He has the most points scored, and the fewest points against. He won himself another Tidwell this week, partly thanks to the LA WRs (Keenan Allen and Cooper Kupp). Literally no one in his starting lineup scored less than 10 points. 

Taysom Hill being eligible at TE was certainly a help for Released Dix On Boobies this week, though any advantage there is going away. Boobies (heh) looks like a very good shot for his first EVER playoff berth with Michael Thomas coming back, Dalvin being Dalvin and A.J. Brown doing stuff like this:

There's some argument to be made that Regress to the Mean lucked out this week playing the rotting husk that is Jeff Fisher Effect. But hey, a win is a win, and he's got a good team. He's got a legit shot at his first league title.

The Browns defense led the scoring for Iron Ryan, who's in position for his first playoff berth since the inaugural year of STPS. Kyler and DK could carry him to the playoffs.

That's the top 4-sitting-pretty-in-a-playoff-spot group.

Then sitting at 5-6, you've got Hamilton Rod and Gun, Death Valley Driver and Utah Falco (only one of whom managed a win this week). We'll look at the importance of the Week 12 matchups coming up.

Pedro Pickles is still on life support, but needs the Eagles offense to not completely suck and Travis Fulgham to be relevant. Fulgham was HUGE early in the season, but he's caught only two more passes than your Commissioner the last two weeks. Pickles's team is better than his 4-7 record, so it's still possible for him to make a run. But he's got a lot of work to do.

Oh yeah: Hardcore Sucks and The Jeff Fisher Effect are in the league too. Hardcore put up some points this week after 3 straight weeks of malodorous scores. The Effect just sucks. 

Tidwell Time

It was Provost. Provost won the Tidwell.

Week 12 Matchups

This week has some interesting implications for the playoffs. The top 2 teams (Provost and RTTM) face off against the bottom 2 teams (Hardcore and The Effect). So, there's a real chance for the rich to get richer here.

Boobies (heh) and I-Ry face off, basically jockeying for the 3 seed. One of them will be 8-4 and virtually assure themselves of a playoff spot; the other will be 7-5, and still be the 4th seed (at least for now).

Our current 5 seed HRG takes on Pedro Pickles. An HRG win likely keeps him in the 5-spot going into a Week 13 matchup with Boobies (heh), and eliminates Pickles. Pickles basically needs to win out to have a shot. He's got the second most points in the league (though that's partly influenced by having 3 of the top 6 scoring weeks, including the highest score; he's also got 4 scores in the 80s).

The matchup of the week has to be DVD vs. Utah Falco. Both are 5-6; basically, winner keeps their slim playoff hopes alive (their point totals don't help them in any tiebreaker scenarios) and the loser hopes to avoid being The Worst.

Playoff Picture

Team Provost has locked up a playoff spot. A win for RTTM this week (or really any week until the end of the year) would lock him in as well. So we won't talk much about them.

The Boobies (heh) vs. I-Ry match is important for seeding. The winner vastly improves their chances at making the playoffs, while the loser is still in, but will need to win in either Week 13 or 14.

The 5-6 teams have a shot, but need some help. Here's how to looks for them (with their next 3 opponents):

• Hamilton Rod and Gun (Pickles, Boobies (heh), DVD)
• DVD (Falco, I-Ry, HRG)
• Falco (DVD, The Effect, Provost)

That Week 14 game between HRG and DVD could be big if I-Ry or Boobies (heh) falters. But that's looking waaaay ahead.

Pickles needs to win out, and either I-Ry or Boobies (heh) to lose out. That's his Obi-Wan Kenobi.

According to theffhub.com, a site I found on Reddit, our playoff positions are basically set. The site calculates odds "from the history of each team's scores this year. It does not take projections or byes into account. It uses that data to run 10,000 monte carlo simulations of each matchup given a team's average score and standard deviation."

So what are the odds of team's making the playoffs?

• Team Provost - 100%
• RTTM - 99.8%
• I-RY - 90.55%
• Boobies (heh) - 86.07%
• HRG - 18.75%
• DVD - 2.77%
• Pickles - 1.77%
• Falco - 0.27%

I left Hardcore and The Effect out: they have no chance. Literally. In fact, The Effect has a 65% chance of finishing in last place.

The Part Where Commish is Thankful

I think I say this every year around this time, but I truly am thankful for this league. Perhaps this year more than usual. Sure, my team stinks. But this league is fun. In a year where we're all spending more time at home, I've been more grateful than ever to have fantasy football to look forward to. You guys make it fun. Other Commish's would kill to have a league like we've got, so thank you.

Don't forget there are Thursday games this week. I'll be rooting for the Lions, like I do every Thanksgiving. For no reason other than they always play on Thanksgiving. (yeah, the Cowboys do too, but....no thanks.)

Bonus points to anyone who posts a video in the GroupMe of them eating a turkey leg like my man Cameron Jordan here:

See you next week!

Week 10, or "That's Not What You Want"

 Well, it certainly wasn't what some teams wanted. For the most part, the rich got richer, and the middle class stayed middle class. I guess it's a lot like America.

RECAPS!

Utah Falco keeps hopes alive, pops Pedro Pickles 115.5-83

Falco was teased by CMC coming back, and then getting injured again, but it didn't matter against Pickles this week. Neither did it matter that he started Chris Carson (who didn't play this week) in his flex spot. Pickles was partly victimized by Drew Brees' rib injury, but also got basically nothing from Travis Fulgham, and literally less than nothing from the Washington Football Team defense. It's his second straight week playing the Tidwell winner, but it's not like he's lit the world on fire either time.

Team Provost destroys Released Dix On Boobies, 114.5-65.5

I actually toyed with this headline: Team Provost starts his bench, beats Released Dix On Boobies 68.5-65.5. Because yeah, that would have been true. It started on Thursday night for Boobies (heh) with a bad performance from AJ Brown, and then Provost was basically as steady as he's been all year. I don't think he should expect that kind of performance from his bench depth pieces, but his starters are good.

Regress to the Mean has a bye week, beats Hamilton Rod & Gun 109-58.5

Actual text message exchange between HRG and The Commish on Sunday night:

I mean, we kinda knew this week was looming for HRG: he drafted all Cowboys and Chiefs, and they were both on bye this week. HRG tried to ride the Curtis Samuel train, but Samuel remembered he's a great athlete not a great football player, and Russell Wilson seems to have forgotten how to play quarterback. RTTM had Josh Jacobs, and Diontae Johnson, which was almost all he needed. Nice to see he didn't play down to the level of his competition.

Death Valley Driver delivers The Jeff Fisher Effect a loss, 107.5-89.5

DVD didn't need a monster week from Davante Adams this week and he's glad to have Miles Sanders back. It was a pretty unremarkable 107 points from DVD, though Adam Thielen helped him to that on Monday night with 2 TDs. JFE's second best scorer was his kicker, so that's rarely good. He got killed in the RB department, thanks to Gio Bernard (against the Steelers) and JK Dobbins. JFE is DOA.

Iron Ryan holds strong, hacks Hardcore Sucks 105-68.5

Kyler Murray and Antonio Gibson took I-Ry to the win this week. It wasn't DK Metcalf (thanks to the aforementioned Russell Wilson disappearing act). Hardcore Sucks does just that. He made some tough choices this week too, leaving Mike Evans and Justin Jefferson and their double digit point outputs on his bench.

Let's Talk Money

Utah Falco won his first of the season, and only his third Tidwell of all-time. 

 Playoff Picture and Week 11 Matchups

Here's who's in the playoffs as of right now, with their Week 11 opponent:

1. Team Provost (DVD)
2. Regress to the Mean (JFE)
3. Iron Ryan (Pickles)
4. Released Dix On Boobies (Falco)

We have the weird quirk in our standings where our #2 and #3 scoring teams are 4-6 and TWO games out of a playoff spot. If either of them gets hot, they could find themselves in the playoffs. 

HRG is #3 in scoring (despite his dismal output this week) and draws Hardcore this week. HRG and Hardcore are 7-7-1 all-time against each other (their tie was benching all their players in a third place playoff game).

DVD does NOT have history on his side in his attempt to get into the playoffs. He's 3-8 all-time against Team Provost. Working in DVD's favor is that he has Provost's QB's favorite target in Davante Adams. Working against DVD is having Josh Allen on bye.

RTTM is 9-2 all-time against JFE. Also, JFE's team is garbage.

Pedro Pickles needs a win, just as HRG does, to stay in the hunt. He's 8-3 all-time against I-Ry. 

Boobies (heh) and Falco have split their all-time series at 7-7. Falco needs the win more, as he hopes he can keep winning until CMC comes back. If he does, he could make some noise in the playoffs.

Good luck in Week 11!