Week 17, or The One Where We Crown Another 2x Champ

In the now 8 full years of Smarter Than Phil Simms Fantasy Football, we have THREE 2x champions. Congratulations to Hardcore Sacks!

He was the best team all year, and basically coasted to the title. How best was his team? His 1,717 points scored in the regular season is the most all-time, and actually one of only 3 teams in league history to top the 1700 point mark. He averaged almost 9 points per game more than the second-highest scoring team.

Congrats, Tim. You earned it.

I mean, of course he did: when you draft Cooper Kupp, the WR1 (and it's not close) in the 4th round, and have a keeper like Austin Ekeler (the RB2) in the 6th round, you just need to not screw up your top picks.

But, thanks to injury, he DID blow his top pick! Christian McCaffrey didn't pan out. Like, at all. But the rest of us fell asleep at the wheel on waivers, and just kind of let Hardcore do what he wanted. He also made the league-winning moves of adding Justin Jackson (for no FAAB money) for Week 16, and Rashaad Penny for Week 17 (for much more FAAB, a few weeks before).

I will say, it was an excellent season all-around. Just as much fun a usual, and we'll be prepared for more of the same next year. 

I'm not sure what the status will be for our End of Season: The Gathering. With Omicron rearing its ugly head (and many with pregnant wives and unvaccinated kids) it might be best to hold off a little bit. I'll work to get you all whatever winnings you've earned through Venmo in the next few days, and chat with many of you for the Playoff Pool in the next few weeks.

If you have any ideas for new rules or changes, let me know. Can't wait for next season!!

Week 16, or the Longest Fantasy Season

Monday Night Football can be fun. Remember that Chiefs-Rams Monday Night game a few years ago? That game was FUN! Here's the link to the highlights if you want to remember.

Stupid NFL, blocking content.

But a Monday Night game in which one teams starting QB is a rookie making his first NFL start simply because the other QBs on his team had to miss the game for COVID reasons is a lot less fun. Especially if you were facing the Miami Dolphins defense. Sorry, I-Ry, though that matchup was already over going into that game.

A matchup that wasn't over going into Monday Night pitted Hardcore Sacks against Death Valley Driver. DVD needed a huge night from Jaylen Waddle, and almost got it. So close, yet so far away. In a stroke of bad luck for DVD as well, once James Robinson's Achilles fall off his body, so that 1 point is a big kick in the teeth in a semi-final matchup.

So we get Hardcore Sacks vs. The Jeff Fisher Effect for the championship. It's each manager's third title game, and each will be looking for his second title. Projections don't have this one particularly close, but it's a matchup of the top two teams in the league by record and by points this year. It should be fun!

Now the real question, which I know you are all wondering (ok, at least the 6 of you involved) is "what the hell did ESPN do with the consolation bracket?" In short, it's weird. Basically, it looks like the first week of the bracket was kind of for "seeding", and the next two weeks are more like the "tournament."

As it stands, you've got HRG who is 2-0 in the consolation, Pickles and Boobies (heh) who are each 1-1, and Provost, who's 0-2.

As it's laid out, the Worst will be the loser of Pickles and Team Provost, while the winner of yet another matchup of Boobies (heh) and HRG will be the winner of the extra scratchies. I apologize that I didn't realize how this consolation bracket was going to work before the season. I think I thought it was going to just eliminate the third week, and this past week was going to be the end of it. Way to go, ESPN.

I've got a couple ideas for how it can work better next year, but we can talk about that at End of Season: The Gathering (or perhaps End of Season: The Zoom Call?). If there's anything else you guys want to adjust for next year, either let me know, or put it in the GroupMe. I'll tabulate them and we can discuss them then. I don't know that there's a lot even worthy of changing, but if you've got an idea, I'm open to hearing it.

Also, Pedro Pickles is going to run our Playoff Pool again this year. I'll leave it to him to explain the thing in the GroupMe.

Hope you all had a wonderful Christmas, and enjoy the extra week of Fantasy Football this year!

Week 15, or ugh!

 It was miserable. It felt terrible. It sucked.

Am I talking about Week 15? Or the sickness that ravaged my family? Well, really it was both.

I didn't write the Notes last week because everyone else in my family was sick. It would be easy to blame the Notes coming out Thursday morning this week on the Tuesday NFL games, but really it was because I finally caught it. I fought valiantly but, like the entire unit in Rogue One, I ultimately lost.

Week 15 in the NFL was brutal. Looking at our fantasy numbers, it was one of the lowest point outputs on the year (and that included the two teams who were on bye). It was a tough week.

But it worked out for Iron Ryan and Death Valley Driver, as they won their matchups to move on to the semi-finals. It was a rough first-ever playoff appearance for Utah Falco, who basically saw Tom Brady drop a turd at the worst time possible for Tom Brady to drop a turd (it wasn't totally his fault though, since he lost his two best receivers).

Ultimately, the difference in the matchup for DVD was Jonathan Taylor's 67-yard TD run to ice the game on Saturday night. Without those 13 points (6 for the TD, 6 for the yardage, and 1 for the 40+ yard bonus), Sycamore pulls out the victory. 

And now, looking at the playoffs, it seems more to be a Playoffs of Attrition. At this point, who's going to get lucky enough to keep their players healthy (both not injured, and off the COVID list). We've tried to build depth, but COVID and the NFL's terrible management of it might wreck all those plans.

Hardcore Sacks was dealt a blow with Austin Ekeler going to the COVID list. Iron Ryan looks like he'll be without Tyreek Hill, half of the stack that propelled him to a win in Round 1. Projections right now have BOTH semi-final matches too close to call. It's going to be a helluva Week 16 in STPS.

And maybe in the NFL too.

In our Worst Bowl, it looks like there's going to be a third week of that too. The winners from this week play next week for the chance to earn the extra scratchers next week, and the losers this week play to avoid being the Worst.

Is it possible that Team Provost will be the first to go from Champ to Worst in a single season? Is it possible that Pedro Pickles could take the lowest scoring team in the league and earn extra scratchers for next year?

(Hey look! That gif says "anything" the exact same way I say "anything" right now.)

And now, I wish to take a few moments to wish you all a Merry Christmas. Another year of Smarter Than Phil Simms Fantasy Football is coming to an end (hey, we get an extra week this year!) and I'd be remiss not to thank you all for another fun year. I absolutely love this league. Everyone is engaged (ok, most of you), and you all make it fun to play in a league like this. Thank you.

And so, as you all sit down for a nice cup of hot cocoa on Christmas Eve, remember that I am thankful for you. You guys frickin' rock.

With that said, I will destroy all of you on my way to a championship. Later losers!

Week 13, or really a Week 14 preview

 We're headed into the final week of the first regular season of our new 6-team playoff format. I think this has been fun, and managed to keep a few more teams in the race longer. Which you'll see as you continue to read.

I've already mentioned in this space the teams that have clinched playoff spots. Hardcore Sacks (who has effectively clinched a top-two seed and a bye), Jeff Fisher Effect and Utah Falco (his first EVER playoff spot btw). Hardcore, thanks to his point total is most likely the top seed. Falco and The Effect will duke it out for the second bye. If both win, The Effect is the most likely 2-seed, thanks to a large lead in the points. If only one of them wins, they're the 2-seed. 

This week, we sort out the final 3 spots. Let's break it down...

Our current 5-seed, HRG, showed signs of life last week (mostly thanks to Kyler Murray) and sits in a somewhat favorable spot to get in. A Sycamore victory really improves his chances, but he can get in on his own with a win over Boobies (heh) this week.

DVD (currently 6th) gets in with a win over The Effect this week too. In a cruel bit of fate, he'll have to do it without his best player (because the NFL doesn't care about fantasy teams and scheduled Week 14 byes, which is equally as dumb as the 17-game season).

Which brings us to what I'll call the Trigger Game: Sycamore vs. I-Ry. Most simply, a Sycamore victory (or a tie) knocks I-Ry out; he can't get in without that 6th win.

However, an I-Ry win triggers several other interesting scenarios. What happens if:

I-Ry wins, either HRG or DVD wins

Whichever of HRG or DVD wins and they're in as the 4-seed with the 7th win; the loser is out. I-Ry and Sycamore would also both get in, thanks to their win total (or more appropriately, their "lack of loss" total).

I-Ry wins, HRG and DVD both win

It's still possible for I-Ry to get in here, but he'll need to make up the point differential between he and Sycamore. If he wins by more than 19.5 points, he gets in, and Sycamore drops out.

 

I-Ry wins, HRG and DVD both lose

All FOUR teams would have 6 wins, but Sycamore and I-Ry would only have 7 losses, so they would both get in. It would come down to point total for HRG and DVD, who are currently separated by 5.5 points.

But hold the phone...

There's still a path for Released Dix on Boobies to get in. 

If the above scenario holds true, Boobies (heh) can slip in if he can make up the point differential, which isn't really insane, especially given his opponent is a team he'd have to jump over.

• HRG - 1334 points
• DVD - 1328.5 points
• Boobies (heh) - 1320 points

So basically: Boobies needs to beat HRG by more than 14 to jump him in the standings. If he also outscores DVD by at least 9, he's the top of the 6-8 bunch and gets into the playoffs! (again, dependent upon DVD losing.)

Just how many of these hypothetical 6-8 teams would get in depends on Sycamore. If Sycamore wins, TWO of the HRG/DVD/Boobies (heh) trio will get in. But's it's all down to the points.

Just because I'm a glutton for punishment as I sit here at 6am writing these Notes...

What happens if HRG and Boobies (heh) tie?

A tie doesn't help Boobies (heh). But it would help HRG. An I-Ry win and an HRG tie would make 3 different teams 6-7-1. If DVD loses, all three of them would get in.

If I-Ry wins, DVD wins and HRG ties, I-Ry would need to make up that point differential between he and Sycamore to get in. (Somehow, I haven't mentioned yet that Sycamore and I-Ry are the 8th- and 9th-highest scoring teams this year. Our 4th-highest, Team Provost, can't even make the playoffs).

TL;DR - Sycamore, HRG and DVD control their own destiny; win and they're in. I-Ry is more complicated, and somehow Boobies (heh) has an outside shot.

So it's going to be an interesting Week 14 in STPS. Can't wait spend all day sitting in front of my TV, constantly refreshing the ESPN Fantasy app for updated projections that will turn out to be SO wrong by the end.

Week 12, or Clinching of the Three

 Three of our teams have clinched a playoff spot: Hardcore Sacks, Jeff Fisher Effect and Utah Falco. These three now battle for only two first round byes. It's Sacks and The Effect for now. Falco was a long shot, but made up a ton of ground in points this past week, and is within striking distance if he and The Effect finish with the same record. A lot comes down to these last two weeks for those desirable byes.

A lot comes down to the last two weeks for the last three playoff spots too. Let's look at how things shake out for the current 4-6 seeds:

4. Bishop Sycamore Centurions (6-5-1) Final 2 games: HRG, Iron Ryan

5. Death Valley Driver (6-6) Final 2 games: The Effect, Hardcore Sacks

6. Iron Ryan (5-6-1) Final 2 games: Falco, Sycamore

Sycamore is simple: win one of these last two and he's in, thanks to that tie. A 7th win means that even HRG running the table and finishing 7-7 can't get in. (Can you believe that? A awful as HRG has been the last month and a half, he still has an outside shot at the playoffs!) That Week 14 game against I-Ry could potentially be HUGE.

Death Valley Driver basically only misses if he loses his last two games; a single win and he's in. He's got the toughest last two games of anyone, facing the current top 2 seeds and top 2 point scorers. He could still get in at 6-8, but would need I-Ry and HRG to lose out, Boobies (heh) and Provost to each lose one of their final two. 

Iron Ryan needs two wins to lock himself in. At 7-6-1, he could even be the 5 seed (holding the edge over any potential 7-7 teams). A split in his last two games would get him in too, as long as HRG doesn't win out.

Hamilton Rod & Gun (5-7) gets Sycamore and Boobies (heh) in his final two. He could get in if he wins out, finishing 7-7, and I-Ry loses out. There's an interesting scenario where HRG and Boobies (heh) win this week, I-Ry and DVD both lose, which would set up a "must-win and need some help" scenario for Boobies (heh) and HRG to get in. Their chances are pretty low though. But they're not dead.

Boobies (heh) is 4-8, and could get in if he wins out over Pickles and HRG. A loss knocks him out. Ain't nobody getting in at 5-9.

Provost (4-8), the defending champ, plays JFE and Falco his last two weeks, so he's a bigger long shot. BUT theoretically possible. Here's how:

1. Provost wins his final 2, finishing 6-8
2. HRG loses out, finishing 6-8
3. Boobies (heh) beats HRG in Week 14, finishing 6-8 or 5-9
4. I-Ry loses out, finishing 5-8-1
5. Provost maintains his points lead, currently 41.5 over Boobies (heh)

So basically, everyone wants to win this week. Especially Pedro Pickles (4-8). He's mostly trying desperately to improve his positions so as NOT to be The Worst in back-to-back seasons. He's only 4-8, so could finish 6-8. But he's SO FAR behind in points, it's not plausible (he's 55 points behind I-Ry, who has the second fewest points, and 119 behind fellow 4-8 Team Provost).

What Would The Commish Want?

I think it would be hilarious if Sycamore loses and I-Ry wins this week, and then they tie again in Week 14, both finishing 6-6-2. I believe the technical term for that would be a "fustercluck." I think they would both get in and it would come down to points, where they are currently separated by...

ONE POINT!

God, that would be fun.

So let's let the Week 13 fun commence, shall we?

Week 11, or Playoff Ch-ch-ch-ch-chaaaanngggeeeeesssss!

 So, not to toot my own horn, but I think I was right on the call of the Game of the Week last week. HRG topped I-Ry in a game that....well, let's just say that it looked like a Thursday Night Football game: two teams trying their hardest, but putting out a shitty product. HRG scored 82.5 points for the second week in a row, and hasn't topped that number in 5 weeks! Yet, somehow, he's 2-3 in that stretch, and sitting in the #5 spot in the playoffs. I-Ry, meanwhile, fell to the #7 spot. It's going to be super interesting to see how that tie affects his playoff position. According to ESPN's Playoff % (which I find fascinating), neither of these teams is likely to make the playoffs.

The most likely to make the playoffs by that ESPN metric our current #6 seed, Death Valley Driver (listed at 63%). I think we can chalk a lot of that up to Jonathan Taylor. Interesting note about DVD's scoring this year: he has a single game with a score in the 90s, and zero games with a score in the 110s or 120s. His spread is CRAZY: going as low as 68.5 and as high at 154.5. He's the kind of boom or bust team you don't really want to face in the playoffs, especially because of that Taylor guy.

DVD walked all over Sycamore this week, and Sycamore is an interesting case too. The tie for him might actually keep him in the playoffs (he's currently 4th with a 99% ESPN playoff chance). He's 6-4-1, and has only two games over 100 points in his last 6 matchups. If he's equal to another team in wins, he'll have the advantage because he'll have one less loss. He's been getting by on some luck. Another stroke of it this week: he gets the hapless Pedro Pickles.

Pickles has the inside track on The Worst this year. He's had tough luck with injuries, and he's decided to rely on Dak and the Cowboys. They suck. Pickles hasn't even gotten to 75 points in four weeks. He's got the fewest points in the league, and it's not particularly close (he's got 1048, next lowest is DVD with 1115). 

Speaking of DVD (yeah, I know I already spoke of him once, but I'm trying to make this smooth, OK?), but he and Boobies (heh) are locked into this week's Game of the Week. This is an important one for both to make the playoffs. I'd say it's slightly more important for Boobies (heh) given his current position of 9th, but he's still got the second highest ESPN Playoff % outside of the Top 4. It could be higher but Boobies (heh) didn't check his lineup pre-game Sunday and left an injured Hollywood Brown in his lineup. 

Tough luck to score the fourth-most points in the league and lose, but that happens sometimes. (just ask HRG. Never mind, don't ask. He'll just tell you.)

That loss for Boobies (heh) came at the hands of The Jeff Fisher Effect, who's run off 6 straight wins. He's on a roll, and looking for one of the two first round playoff byes available. 

JFE's opponent in Week 12 is the other team staring down the bye week, Hardcore Sacks. This would have been the Game of the Week, except that the loser only falls to 8-4, and is likely to still have the bye in place (they're the two highest scoring teams in the league right now). Couple interesting notes about this matchup: Hardcore is the FIRST to 70 wins, thanks to his victory last week. Congrats Hardcore.

He's got the best winning percentage in league history. But you know the ONLY team he has more losses than wins against? Yeah, it's Jeff Fisher Effect. (There's your fun nugget for the day. I've just jinxed myself.)

After Hardcore and JFE, the next two highest scorers are Utah Falco and Team Provost. Falco is 7-4 and faces HRG this week. It's a good spot for him to get a win, especially since he went the first 7 weeks without falling below 100 points, but hasn't topped 92.5 since, and has been trending down in points. A win for him locks him in a playoff spot.

Get it? Locks him in?

At 4-7, Provost needs wins to make the playoffs. He's at a spot where he needs to win out to get in. His point total will likely be a help to him if he gets to 7-7. He gets I-Ry this week, but ends his season with two games against playoff teams (JFE and Falco), so it's an uphill climb.

 So now that I've gotten each team mentioned in this style of Notes (which I swore I would never do again, but here we are), it's time to throw in the bit I throw in every year around this time: I'm thankful for this league. Now in our EIGHTH year, I look forward to this every year. Writing the Notes, talking trash, and following the NFL season continues to be entertaining. And you guys make it fun and worth it every year. So thanks for being everything a Commish could ask for.

Enjoy Week 12. Remember, there are three Thursday games this week, so be sure to check your lineup before you start drinking on Thursday (which I realize for some of you might mean setting an alarm on Thursday morning).

Until next week, STPS!

Week 10, or the poor get poorer

 I'm not sure there's an even numbered week this late in the season where we didn't have a team at .500. The gap between our top and bottom is bigger than my....well, it's big.

Who Won

Three of the top 4 teams won (JFE, Hardcore and Falco). The only reason the fourth didn't win (Sycamore) is because he played another one of the top. And the other winners were Provost and I-Ry, both of whom earned their 4th win (an important one to this point).

Who Lost

HRG, Pickles, DVD, Boobies (heh), and the aforementioned Sycamore lost this week (Readers paying attention already knew that.)

How's it look with four games to go?

If the season ended today, I-Ry and Provost would be the last two teams in. I-Ry gets in because he has one less loss than the other 4-win teams, and Provost because he's got the most points of the 4-win teams (Provost actually has the 4th most points despite his record). But with 4 games to go, no one is out of it. Here's the schedules of the bottom 6, starting at #10:

10. Pedro Pickles (3-7) - Falco, Sycamore, Boobies (heh), Hardcore

It doesn't look real promising for our #10 seed; he gets 3 of the top 4 teams in his last 4 games. AND he probably needs to run the table; he's got the second fewest points. 

9. Death Valley Driver - Sycamore, Boobies, Hardcore, JFE

DVD has the fewest points, but he's also got Jonathan Taylor. He, too, faces a tough schedule, and also likely needs to win out to make it, given his point total.

8. Released Dix On Boobies - JFE, DVD, Pickles, HRG

Boobies seems to be in control of his own fate here: after this week, he's got three games against the Bottom 6. ESPN likes his chances, probably because of the schedule.

7. Hamilton Rod and Gun - I-Ry, Falco, Sycamore, Boobies

It's not looking good for HRG; really ever since he lost Derrick Henry and Calvin Ridley. He's AVERAGING 72.6 points per game over his last four games. He's been falling hard.

6. Team Provost - Hardcore, I-Ry, JFE, Falco

Another real tough slate remaining for Provost, especially after the loss of Aaron Jones for likely the next two games (and no backup in sight).

5. Iron Ryan - HRG, Provost, Falco, Sycamore

That Week 5 tie just might be his ticket to the playoffs. Splitting the last two games is important for him to have a shot, even if it's only for the 6 seed. 

Game of Week 11

I'm gonna say the most important game of the week is I-Ry vs. HRG. The winner really improves their playoff odds, while the loser's hopes take a big hit. 

So let's get it on. Starting on Thursday with Falcons-Patriots.

See you next week!