Tuesday, October 24, 2017

Week 7, or Halfway Through The Season

I’m guessing most of you didn’t notice a small change from last week’s results. A stat correction took away a reception from Alvin Kamara (must have been a shovel pass) and the loss of the half-point cost Reaper the tie against Scrote Squad. I’ll go more into the standings and what they mean in the midseason report coming out later this week. But onto this week’s recaps.

Outta Luck (78.5) vs. Iron Ryan (48)
Holy hell, this was a shit show. Both teams had less than 50 going into the Monday night game, and Iron Ryan put up his lowest point total ever (previous low was 62 in Week 4, 2015). This was just awful. Only three players in this matchup scored double digit points (Drew Brees for Iron, Carson Wentz and Jimmy Graham for Luck-less). Wentz was pretty legit on Monday, and he could be a bright spot for Luck-less moving forward. Iron was lowlighted by Marshawn Lynch’s 0 points (I mean, Lynch ran further and faster on his sprint onto the field to tackle an official than at any point this season).

Bad news, Marshawn. It’s BECAUSE you were there that you got fined. And suspended.

Pedro Pickles (117.5) vs. Hooper’s Heroes (76.5)
It was not a good week for The Heroes. He posted the third lowest score in the league, which is sort of impressive for the second leading scorer. He was able to use Latavius Murray and his 18 points, but the rest of his roster wasn’t able to muster enough. Antonio Brown and Ben Roethlisberger combined for 30 points, but he got a total of 1.5 from Ty Montgomery and the Ravens D. Pickles, meanwhile, got big weeks from Russell Wilson (25 points), Lev Bell (20.5) and Mike Evans (17.5), along with solid weeks from most other player. And he left Aaron Jones (22.5 points) and Derek Carr (30) on his bench.

Released Dix On Boobies (98) vs. Jameis Winston Zeddemore (85.5)
Boobies (heh) earned his second win of the season, and Zeddemore just continues to struggle. Jay Ajayi went another game without a touchdown, and only mustered 8.5 points. Zeddemore managed to add Matt Ryan off waivers this week to team with Julio Jones, in hopes of boosting his scoring. It didn’t work quite well enough, though the two combined for 34.5 points. Boobies (heh) got a big week from Jarvis Landry and Jason Witten. On paper, you’d think Boobies (heh) would have felt good (yeah, had to) playing both Titans RBs against the pitiful Browns. But who knew the Titans O would have been so pitiful that they didn’t score a touchdown? But again, it didn’t matter.

Team Provost (124.5) vs. Scrote Squad (102)
Provost had the highest scoring starter this week in Zeke Elliot (41.5 points), and his tandem with Shady McCoy boosted him to the victory and the second highest point total of the week. He caught a small break when Scrote decided not to play Jordan Reed and his 22.5 points, or Doug Baldwin and his 19.5, though I guess both moves are defensible. But it’s probably not a mistake Scrote will make again.

No explanation for this GIF. It’s just...there.

The Jeff Fisher Effect (133.5) vs. Grim Reaper (89.5)
Another week, another dominant performance for The Effect. This one was mostly over after Thursday night, as Alex Smith, Kareem Hunt and Tyreek Hill combined for 60 points. The Effect posted the second highest score in the league this season despite Melvin Gordon putting up his lowest total of the season. The Effect is a force. Reaper continues to be encouraged by Evan Engram and his 15 points and Kirk Cousins reasonably consistent play, but there was just nothing he could do this week.

Other Notable Stuff
It was pretty evident in the GroupMe chat on Friday morning that Boobies (heh) was upset he hadn’t played Amari Cooper (the highest scoring bench player this week with 41.5 points). He also could be upset for sitting Dak Prescott and his 30 points. Needless to say, Boobies (heh) had the highest scoring bench of the week. Always feels better when you have the highest scoring bench and win anyway.

Money Winner
The Jeff Fisher Effect is the money winner one more time, his fifth time of the season.


Upcoming This Week
Now that we’re halfway through the regular season, keep your eyes peeled for the annual Mid-Season Report, hopefully no later than Friday.

And we’re on to Week 8! Enjoy this GIF of Marshawn lifting a few Skittles.










Tuesday, October 17, 2017

Week 6, or the craziest week in STPS history

For the second time in three weeks, Monday Night Football gave us a crazy ending for the real game. This time, however, it gave us a crazy ending for not one but THREE of the Smarter Than Phil Simms Fantasy Football league matchups.

Pickles-Zeddemore had been decided, and The Effect had a 21 point lead with TY Hilton going. Hilton scored 1.5 points, so he didn’t really figure in the following drama.

Here are the relevant scores going into the Monday Night game between the Titans and Colts.

Hooper’s Heroes
95.5
Iron Ryan
84

Team Provost
111
Released Dix On Boobies
94.5

Grim Reaper
108
Scrote Squad
87

It really only looked like Heroes might be in jeopardy, as he had the smallest lead, and Iron Ryan had two players still to go. But Boobies (heh) had DeMarco Murray, and you never know if Murray will have a good game, or put up a stinker.

Things got interesting pretty early in the Scrote/Reaper game, when Ryan Succop scored the first 15 points for the Titans, and netted 18 points, bringing him within 3 to 108-105. Meanwhile, Iron Ryan (who had Rishard Mathews and Delanie Walker playing) had pulled with a HALF POINT of Hooper.

And then with, 10:01 to go in the game, DeMarco Murray scored on a three-yard run, giving him 16 points in the game, and moving Boobies (heh) within a half point of Provost. And the extra point from Succop moved Scrote within 2 points of Reaper.

For you visual people (like me), here are the scores with 10:01 to go:

Hooper’s Heroes
95.5
Iron Ryan
95

Team Provost
111
Released Dix On Boobies
110.5

Grim Reaper
108
Scrote Squad
106

The score remained this way, following an Adam Vinatieri field goal with 7:27 to go, that tied the actual game at 22-22.

The Titans offense hit the field to try and win the game.

Bad news for Boobies (heh): Derrick Henry hit the field, not Murray, and took a handoff. And then Marcus Mariota threw the ball to Eric Decker. And then he did it again. And then Mariota went deep...and threw a long touchdown pass to Taywan Taylor. Ryan Succop kicked the extra point, and we’re here:

Hooper’s Heroes
95.5
Iron Ryan
95

Team Provost
111
Released Dix On Boobies
110.5

Grim Reaper
108
Scrote Squad
107

The Colts took the ball, needing a TD to tie. They marched a bit, ran a play or two, completed a pass to Donte Moncrief (somewhat cruelly on the bench for Iron Ryan), and then Jacoby Brissett completed a pass to Jack Doyle, who fumbled the ball, and the Titans recovered with 2:37 to go.

But then, as is customary, they reviewed the play, and it turns out, Doyle didn’t fumble; it was ruled an incomplete pass. And the Colts kept the ball.

After running one more play, the Colts (remember, they’re trailing by a touchdown) went for it on 4th and 1 and didn’t get it. They lost their challenge of the spot, thereby losing a timeout. Titans took over with 2:19 on the clock.

And Derrick Henry came out with the offense (no Murray). He took the first handoff, which ran the clock down to the 2 minute warning (notice, I have not mentioned Rishard Mathews, Delanie Walker or DeMarco Murray in the last 8 game minutes). After the two minute warning, the Titans gave the ball to Derrick Henry a couple more times, and the Colts used both of their timeouts. Now the Titans just need to run out the clock.

And then, following a Tennessee timeout because a player lost his shoe, Derrick Henry took the handoff, ran left, weaved through a few guys, made a nifty move back to the right, and he;s gone for a touchdown.

And then Ryan Succop came in for the extra point. Which, of course,  he made. The Colts had  the ball one more time, put together a few impotent plays and the game is over.

In case you lost track, here’s the scores for our fantasy matchups, as the game ended.

Hooper’s Heroes
95.5
Iron Ryan
95

Team Provost
111
Released Dix On Boobies
110.5

Grim Reaper
108
Scrote Squad
108

giphy.gif
Guys, this was absolutely nuts to watch unfold (and I swear I would have found it just as entertaining if I had been one of the teams involved). So many things had to break right for this to happen. I can say, and not just because I put together that League History document, that this was the most insane week in STPS history. I’m still sort or stunned at how this thing ended; one more catch for Mathews or Walker, one more carry for Murray, one less TD for the Titans, and this whole thing ends differently. Football is a game of inches, and Fantasy Football apparently is a game of half-points.

Here’s the recaps for the team’s not involved in this kerfuffle (though they aren’t as fun):

Pedro Pickles (111) vs. Jameis Winston Zeddemore (81.5)
I’ve sort of said it since he was 3-0: Zeddemore’s roster is just not scary. He finally got big weeks from Jordan Howard and Jay Ajayi, but neither scored a touchdown (that part is just bad luck). He was also snake bitten with the Jameis Winston injury, giving him 2 points at QB. Pickles, on the other hand, had another good week from Le’Veon Bell, and got points on Cameron Brate TDs that didn’t also help Zeddemore. The long Mike Evans TD toward the end of that game helped Pickles too.

The Jeff Fisher Effect (112.5) vs. Outta Luck (93)
Melvin Gordon carried The Effect to the victory this week, though this one was much closer than the final score. The Effect made the bold decision (driven by bye weeks and injury, really) to start Alex Smith, Kareem Hunt and Tyreek Hill; they all play for the Chiefs, who couldn’t do a darn thing against the Steelers defense for three quarters of their game. And then, Smith and Hunt woke up just enough to score some decent fantasy points, and put the game out of reach. Outta Luck was just that again, though he’s done a pretty good job of making his team competitive, despite the David Johnson injury and other ineffective and injured players. Deshaun Watson has looked great (23 points this week) and he’s found a favorite red zone target in Will Fuller (not gonna use the “V”), who also happens to be on Outta’s roster. It just wasn’t enough to topple the league’s top point scorer.

Other interesting notes from the games decided on Monday night:
Team Provost (111) vs. Released Dix On Boobies (110.5)
So close for Boobies (heh), as he put up his highest score of the season. Provost has put up a couple good weeks, and this week he did it without Zeke and LeSean McCoy (both on bye; we’ll see what happens with Zeke going forward). The Texans D was Boobies (heh) high scorer, but they don’t get to play the Browns every week. They’re a net-positive 16 over the last two weeks (since they had -7 last week). They’re on bye next week, and we’ll see what Boobies (heh) wants to do. He could actually end up with a roster that includes 2 QBs, 2 defenses and THREE TEs.

Hooper’s Heroes (95.5) vs. Iron Ryan (95)
The Heroes looked dead in the water, and then a football found its way through the hands of a Chiefs defender, and into Antonio Brown’s hands, and he was off for a TD. That really helped offset the 0 points Heroes got from Andre Ellington and the now possibly done-for-the-season Aaron Rodgers. He did get big weeks from Gronk (23 points) and the Ravens D (20 points, thanks to a kick return and punt return TD). Iron Ryan is stuck with the Ghost of Beast Mode, and a whole bunch of New York Football Giants. I’d written him off, but then the Giants D scored 18 points on Sunday night. And you know the rest from Monday night. But he’s got Leonard Fournette, an early candidate for keeper next year. I say “for next year” because that’s pretty much what Iron Ryan is planning for.

Grim Reaper (108) vs. Scrote Squad (108)
Here we see the wheeling and dealing Reaper did this week start to pay off. He started two brand new RB toys in Alvin Kamara and Doug Martin, netting him 24.5 total points. (Worth mentioning Doug Martin was on Scrote’s roster last week.) Evan Engram, who last week posted a donut, took advantage of the WR-less Giants offense, and posted 16.5 points to essentially ice the game for Reaper.  Meanwhile, Scrote got 3.5 points from two Patriots on his roster (Mike Gillislee and Chris Hogan, who was the #5 WR going into this week). Mark Ingram had a big day for Scrote, but didn’t get much from Matt Ryan at QB. And Ryan Succop. Man, I don’t even know.


Money Winner
The Jeff Fisher Effect is our money winner, for the fourth time this season. This was a close one, with three other owners within 2 points of The Effect's 112.5.
giphy.gif

Standings
There was no change in the standings this week, as The Effect (6-0) won to remain in first place, Heroes (4-2) won and stays in second, while the tie actually kept Reaper and Scrote tied for third by record (3-2-1, though Reaper has scored more points). But there’s a log jam after that: Zeddemore and Pickles are 3-3, Outta Luck, Provost and Iron Ryan are 2-4, and Boobies (heh) is just hanging there at 1-5.

It was a CRAZY week in Smarter Than Phil Simms. Tune in next week for more insanity.

Tuesday, October 10, 2017

STPS Commissioner Announces Comprehensive League History and 2017 Analytical Data

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

From: The Desk of the Commish


The Smarter Than Phil Simms League Office today announced the release of a comprehensive league history document, as well as analytical data for the 2017 season. While the document is not complete, Commissioner Nate Luscombe could no longer keep the information from his owners. It's just too much fun.

"As the Smarter Than Phil Simms Fantasy League continued into it's fourth season, I wondered more and more about who holds certain league records," The Commish said in a press release which you are now reading. "This league history document was produced to that end."

The first League History document was created originally by deputy commissioner Tim Gartstka, and held rudimentary information such as standings and season-long basic information (points for, points against, average points, etc.).

The documents linked below has added much more information, including head-to-head records for each team, all-time totals for wins and points, and tons of other fancy information that can be created and counted and averaged and concatenated using Microsoft Excel and Google Sheets.

The 2017 analytical data tracks week to week point totals, Rotisserie standings for the league (statistics as if there were no bench players), the weekly high point getter, and positional data for each owner relative to the league.

"I don't even know what "concatenate" means," said The Commish. "But I really nerded out with Google Sheets on this project."

_________________________________________________________________________________

Hey guys: here's some more about the documents. It was too much brain power to keep the press release language going.

Want to know your all-time winning percentage? It's in the league history.

Want to know which other owner you have beaten the most? It's in the history.

Want to know your biggest blowout win and loss? Yup, it's there.

Within the History, each owner has a "results" page, which holds information on each weekly matchup in your history. You can tell who you played in Week 3 in 2015, and what the score was. I used all that information and created a "history" page for each of you, which tabulates your record in each season (including postseason) and various other stats for each owner.

The 2017 Stats page shows all the stuff linked above. The piece in here I think is interesting is the "league average score" piece. Using everyone's scores for the week, I've figured the average, and expressed how your team did against the average that week. It's an interesting way to look at your performance. I've heard of leagues that give you two "games" each week: how you do in a head to head matchup, and how you do against the league average. I don't want our league to do that, but I do find the information interesting.

I'm still working on these. There's a lot more stuff to do that I've already planned for (comprehensive playoff and Loser's Bracket pages, for example), more stuff that hasn't been planned or thought out completely (total FAAB money used?), but can be done as I keep adding information (and ESPN doesn't remove it before I get to import it), and more stuff I can do once I figure out the formulas for it.

In the meantime, check out the

STPS League History

and

2017 Analytical Stats

Week 5, or Reaper wins again?!

Week 5 is in the books. I have nothing witty to say, beyond what it said in the recaps. I would, however, like to know what you guys think of the Weekly Notes being distributed this way. Let me/the league know either in the GroupMe chat or shoot me an email.

And now.....iiiiiiiiiiiiiiitttttttttt's RECAP TIME!

Grim Reaper (87.5) vs. Released Dix On Boobies (60)
Well, it’s officially a winning streak for Reaper. He’s won three straight, topping Boobies (heh) this week, despite two players in his lineup scoring 0 points. Boobies (heh) just had nothing: or, in the case of the Texans D, less than nothing. Minus-7 from the Texans D is the worst output this season from a starting defense. Reaper didn’t need big weeks from his RBs (which is good, since he hasn’t gotten many of those this year), because he got big weeks from A.J. Green (27.5 points) and DeAndre Hopkins (25 points). Reaper finally sat Isaiah Crowell, even though this week, he was his highest scoring RB.

Oh, and here’s Reaper's reaction to his win streak:
More on the win streak below.


Outta Luck (118) vs. Team Provost (107)
Hey, remember the first couple years when Provost Magic™ was a thing? It has not worked out lately. And this one is just a bummer for Provost; he put up the second most points this week, but it just so happened to be against the team with the most. A week where DeVante Parker doesn’t go out with an injury in the first quarter, (or Jay Cutler is not his QB) and maybe this one shakes out differently. Davante Adams scored two TDs to help compensate but it wasn’t enough. Outta Luck can thank Duke Johnson and T.Y. “It’s Ty, Asshole” Hilton for that one.

Here’s Provost this week, complete with sunglasses:


Hooper’s Heroes (107) vs. Jamies Winston Zeddemore (64)
I feel like this one has been coming for a couple weeks. Zeddemore’s players just aren’t scary, and this kind of game is what happens when not one of them pops. He also had his primary WRs (Julio, Demaryius) on bye, so his players won’t be unfearsome forever. His namesake QB, Mr. Winston, was his highest scorer with 16. To be fair, it would have been hard to beat Hooper this week, as he tied for the second-highest score in the league this week. Somehow, Antonio Brown scored 21 points to lead his scorers, despite the fact that Ben Roethlisberger threw 5 INTs to the Jaguars D (which, incidentally, was on Zeddemore’s bench). Hooper could be in some trouble though with Gronk, Ty Montgomery injured and Dalvin Cook done for the year.

The Jeff Fisher Effect (99.5) vs Iron Ryan (91.5)
The good for Iron Ryan: Leonard Fournette was a beast. And hey, 90 yard touchdown runs are pretty great. The bad for Iron Ryan: Well, Odell Beckham broke his leg and is done for the year and Sterling Shepard left the game with an ankle injury; they were his starting WRs. It seems bad, but they still managed to score 19 points between them (18.5 of them from Beckham though). The Effect had solid days from most and a blowup day from Melvin Gordon to pull out the victory. The win moves Fisher Effect to 6-1 all-time against Iron Ryan.

Scrote Squad (94.5) vs. Pedro Pickles (92)
This one was a nail biter going into Monday night. The projection didn’t look good for Scrote Squad, trailing by 10.5 points. But then Kyle Rudolph caught a touchdown pass on Monday night, and vaulted Scrote to the victory. Scrote’s players were all solid, with no huge days (Chris Hogan was his high scorer with 17). I would be remiss not to mention that Harrison Butker made his way to Pickles’ roster, and promptly put up 21 points. He was the highest scoring player in this matchup.


A look inside Reaper’s win streak:
Reaper’s three-game win streak, despite what it might feel like to him, is NOT his longest win streak ever; he put together a 5-game streak in Weeks 12 through 16 in 2015 (weeks 15 and 16 are the postseason). If you’re talking regular season only, he’s had two 3-gamers, both in 2015: Weeks 1-3, and obviously Weeks 12-14. There is only one owner without a winning streak of 3 games. He shall go unnamed.

It's Cusick.

During this streak, Reaper has posted 306.5 points, good for third highest in the league over that span (only The Jeff Fisher Effect and Hooper’s Heroes scored more). Damn near half of those points (152 of them, good for 49.59%) have come from the wide receiver position.

I had to see it for myself, but Reaper is actually the third highest scoring team in the league. He also has the second highest scoring bench.

This week’s Money Winner:
Outta Luck might be just that, but not this week: he’s in the money this week with our highest weekly score. $10 to you sir!



Trade Talk
We had two trades this week(!), which is two-thirds of the total trades in league history up to now (one was actually the second ever trade between Reaper and The Effect). The trade process will likely be updated, though it also appears that the Commish has the ability to push the trades through (which i did not know earlier).

Reaper is going whole hog, trying to get himself to the playoffs. He currently sits in third, but there are 7 teams that are either 3-2 or 2-3. It's Week 5, so it's way too early to talk too much about playoff position.

Preview
The Bills, Bengals, Cowboys and Seahawks are on bye this week. Sit them boys. Provost is screwed, since his best two RBs are on bye. And he's 1-4.

Need I remind you: he drafted from a boat.

Peace out!


Tuesday, October 3, 2017

Week 4, or the craziest Monday Night finish ever

This week in Smarter Than Phil Simms was… well, let’s be honest…. second on our minds to what happened in Las Vegas. I can’t just write this without acknowledging that tragedy. But Fantasy Football is a welcome distraction from that. So, let’s commune here for a few minutes to take our minds of it. Deal?

On to the recaps!

Released Dix On Boobies (84.5) vs. Iron Ryan (82.5)
The “homer” decision to play the Giants D cost Iron Ryan the tie; the decision to sit Terrelle Pryor cost him the win. Drew Brees and Leonard Fournette did their best, but they were no match for the Texans D and Tom Brady. Boobies (heh) pulled out the win, even with Jason Witten, his brand new shiny $11 TE scoring 0.5 points.

Outta Luck (86.5) vs. Hooper’s Heroes (82.5)
Hooper’s Heroes was the highest scoring team going into the week. But he just didn’t have many points available to him this week, as he became the second team this week to lose while scoring 82.5 points. Two players scored 21 in this matchup (Aaron Rodgers for Heroes, Jordy Nelson for Outta Luck), but the real difference came from a lackluster performance from Antonio Brown and an injury to Ty Montgomery. The Team Formerly Known As Hardcore Sacks continues to have terrible luck: Chris Carson went down with a broken leg, Rob Kelley injured an ankle on Monday night (again), and Mohamed Sanu is going to miss some time. So not only are his starters getting injured, his bench players are getting injured too.

Pedro Pickles (130.5) vs. Team Provost (92.5)
As poor a week as Pickles had last week is as good a week as he had this week. (does that sentence even make sense?) Le’Veon Bell finally had that breakout game, Russell Wilson played well (against the Colts so… pump the brakes) and the 3 points from Coby Fleener didn’t hurt him. The Bucs D lost him a point this week, two weeks after getting him 18 points. The only thing Provost really could have done is play Cam Newton, but even that wouldn’t have saved him this week. Pickles was just too much.

The Jeff Fisher Effect (146.5) vs. Scrote Squad (56.5)
Scrote and Pickles basically traded spots between last week and this week. The Ball Tappers had ONE player in his lineup (and only two on his entire roster) score in double figures. He had no shot against The Effect this week. ONLY one of The Effect’s players did NOT score in double digits, lead by Todd Gurley (32.5) and Greg Zuerlein (27). Scrote would have lost to JFE’s bench (57-56.5).

Grim Reaper (99.5) vs. Jameis Winston Zeddemore (93)
This one was up for grabs LITERALLY until the end of the Monday Night game. I watched this matchup all night. At the end of the third quarter, it was Zeddemore 93 (with Travis Kelce in play), Reaper 90.5 (with Kirk Cousins and the Chiefs D), with projections of 95.7, and 95.3. At 7:44 to go, the projection was locked up at 94. With 4:51 to go, the projections gave an edge to Zeddemore, 94-93, with an actual score of 93-91.5 for Zeddemore. But Cousins was about to get the ball, which meant the Chiefs D was on the field too. The first play, a 16 yard pass by Cousins to Terrelle Pryor, added a point for Cousins, but lost 2 for the Chiefs D, widening the gap to 93-90.5. A rushing play by Cousins added that point back, 93-91.5. Another scrambling run leading up to the two-minute warning brought Cousins up to 20 points, and gave Reaper a 93.5-93 lead. The KC D seemed content to let Cousins just run the ball, which was OK because it seemed the Redskins were just interested in giving their kicker a chance to tie the game in the closing seconds. As the ‘Skins tied it, the 20 points meant the Chiefs D dropped to 0 points, and Zeddemore led 93-92.5. Then Harrison Butker kicked a field goal to give the Chiefs the win, and that was it.

Or so we thought. Because with 4 seconds left, the Redskins tried one of those “lateral as many times as possible and hope something good happens” plays. And the ball came out, and the Chiefs took it in for a TD, giving Reaper his second straight victory, 99.5-93.


And that’s not all. The Chiefs were 7 point favorites last night. That TD covered the spread.

Oh, and the over/under was 48. Yeah, that TD made the over too. This is the kind of thing that simultaneously makes me happy I don’t gamble, and sad I don’t gamble.

Other random things
- The highest scoring player (Le’Veon Bell-33 pts) and highest scoring bench player (Cam Newton-31 pts) came from the same matchup (Pickles vs. Provost)

- I noted before Scrote Squad would have lost to JFE’s bench. He also would have lost to the benches of Reaper, Zeddemore and Provost.

This week’s Money Winner
The Jeff Fisher Effect is the money winner for the third week in a row.



!!REMINDER!!


So we’re 28.5 percent of the way through the fantasy regular season, and Week 5 is the first one with any bye weeks. So sit your Falcons, Broncos, Saints and Redskins. We haven’t had a problem in prior years, but don’t make me come after you for leaving bye week players in your lineup.
OK, yeah... that was just an excuse to use that gif.

Also: sorry that I never made a second post last week like I said I would. I may get it done this week, but we’ll see. It may not be worth reading.

And finally:

Hey Pete: Harrison Butker is a thing.



If he's not on your roster by Friday, I'll be very disappointed.