Tuesday, December 5, 2017

Week 13, or Clinching and Worst-ing

With their wins this week, Pickles, The Heroes and The Effect clinched playoff spots. And the race for the last spot exists, but how many teams have a realistic shot? Read on, dear friends!

Pedro Pickles (113) vs. Grim Reaper (112.5)
Another week, a THIRD (yes, THIRD) half-point loss for The Reaper. I mean, if Lev Bell’s Monday night TD is a rushing one instead, we’re not having this conversation. Really bad break for Reaper. The victory means Pickles has officially clinched a playoff spot. We’ll talk about the overall playoff picture later.

Released Dix On Boobies (89) vs. Iron Ryan (74.5)
This loss officially eliminates Iron Ryan from playoff contention (it was a long shot anyway). The loss sets up an interesting 3-way tie for the worst record in the league right now. I’ll talk about that later, too.

Team Provost (106.5) vs. Outta Luck (69.5)
This loss means Outta Luck is basically just that for a playoff spot, his valiant attempt at respectability hampered by underperforming players and waiver wire dreck. There's a shot, but an outside one. Like, "in the parking lot" outside.

The Jeff Fisher Effect (151) vs. Scrote Squad (75.5)
Well, after all the last 6 weeks of losing, The Effect busted out in a big way. In the interesting stat department, The Effect won both matchups against Scrote this season by a combined score of 297.5-132: the Effect’s two highest scores of the year came against Scrote. Scrote is still in the driver's seat for a playoff berth, however (read more later).

Hooper’s Heroes (122) vs. Jameis Winston Zeddemore (90.5)
The Heroes dominating win clinched him a playoff spot, and dealt a blow to Zeddemore’s chances. Big blow. Almost hurricane force.

The Playoff Picture
We know who our top 3 seeds are: Pickles, The Heroes and The Effect. They won’t necessarily be in that order; they really could be in any order, and it’s very unlikely that one of these teams becomes the #4 seeds. There’s a possibility the The Heroes and The Effect, who face off in Week 14, do so again in the first week of the playoffs (which historically would be good for The Heroes, who owns a lifetime 6-1 record against The Effect, though The Effect won their first meeting this season).

If Pickles wins, he’s the 1, and The Heroes and The Effect fight it out for number 2. If Pickles loses, the 1 seed likely goes to the winner of Heroes/Effect, who would probably have more points, and would have the same record.

The really interesting matchup is for the 4 seed. Theoretically, four teams are within a game of that spot: Scrote (currently holding onto that 4 seed), Reaper, Zeddemore and Outta Luck. There are basically two realistic scenarios:

Scenario #1: Scrote beats Luckless this week: he’s in.
Scenario #2: Scrote loses to Luckless, and Reaper defeats Boobies (heh): Reaper probably gets in, having the same record, and probably more points for (currently, Reaper has a 34.5 point advantage).
Scenario #3: If Scrote loses and Reaper loses, the possibility exists for Zeddemore and Luckless to get in. Here’s the point totals:
Reaper: 1280.5
Scrote: 1246 (-34.5)
Zeddemore: 1158 (-112.5)
Outta Luck: 1126.5 (154)

So, basically, for Zeddemore or Luckless to get in (if both Reaper and Scrote lose), they need to win AND make up the point difference between them and Scrote (Reaper would be out by record). Zeddemore would need to outscore Scrote by 78 points. Luckless would need to make up 119.5 points (a point total that has been topped only 17 times, or 13% of the time, this year).

Who’s Gonna Be The Worst?
There are more teams in the running to be this year’s The Worst than there are to make the playoffs right now. Provost, Iron Ryan and Boobies (heh) are the obvious favorites, given they have the worst records. A loss for any (or all) of them would give them the worst record in the league, and The Worst would come down to points; Boobies (heh) has the fewest, 18 fewer than Iron Ryan. Provost has a major advantage here, having scored the 4th MOST points in the league, and would really only end up the Worst if he loses, and Iron and Boobies (heh) win. In theory, all of the 6-7 teams (Luckless, Zeddemore, Reaper) could also end up as The Worst. It could all come down to points. And a little bit of (bad) luck.

A total of 55 points separate Zeddemore, Luckless, Iron Ryan and Boobies (heh), the obvious “contenders.”

There are WAY too many scenarios to list, but suffice it to say, it’s possible to have our first repeat The Worst. It’s also possible to have our Champ who became The Worst.

Sunday will be interesting!

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