Week 12, or Craziness Continues

Last week in this space, I wrote about the 5-6 teams and how Week 12 would be make-or-break for them. And then, three of them lost. But thanks to a well-placed victory by a team that before this week seemed deep in the running for The Worst, all three still got a shot to seize the final spot.

So, let’s recap this bitch.

Iron Ryan rocks Jeff Fisher Effect, 123.5-105

Leonard Fournette carried I.R. this week, giving Iron Ryan the only victory among the 5-6 teams. Fisher Effect was victimized by low scoring weeks from his WRs. JFE is in trouble, especially after losing Melvin Gordon (definitely) and Marlon Mack (probably) to injury for Week 13.

Dancin’ Dennis Nedry stomps Released Dix On Boobies, 150-106

DDN dropped his highest point total of the season, thanks to not one but TWO 97-yard touchdown plays from guys on his roster (I call “shenanigans”). Boobies (heh) again got a half-point from some random Packers receiver, but c’mon, it’s not like he had enough points on his roster to keep pace this week anyway.

Scrote Squad kicks Pedro Pickles, 141.5-128

This one is a bitter pill for Pickles to swallow, with a score that would have beaten a lot of other teams this week (and this is not the first time this year he's been mistreated so). But it’s hard to beat the other guy when they have a 100-yard rusher and a 100-yard receiver, and damn near impossible when those are the same player (well done, Christian McCaffrey).

Team Provost plasters Panic Time Squad, 149.5-102

 When you have Ezekiel Elliot and Saquon Barkley on the same team, and then combine that with Amari Cooper’s crazy week, you’re going to be tough to beat. PTSd wishes he had ONE of those two RBs; his RBs combined to score 18.5 points, while Zeke scored 23.5 and Saquon rolled up 31.5.

Hardcore Sacks obliterates Death Valley Driver, 119.5-75

How does a team that is in line for a playoff spot put up 75 points? Easy. By starting Jalen Richard instead of Kenny Golladay. Also by rostering three D/STs, who scored a COMBINED 3 points this week (but remember, Matthew Berry said it was OK to draft the Jaguars D super early). Hardcore looks strong holding onto that top seed.

So, what now?

Well, Hardcore is in the playoffs, and based on his point totals, Dancin’ Dennis is in too. DDN can’t finish with more than 6 losses, and unless he just doesn’t fill out a roster for the next two weeks, there’s no way either 6-6 team makes up the points difference (PTSd has an almost 200 point deficit, and we discussed Iron Ryan’s futility last week, but just for the sheer sticker shock, is behind by an incredible 334 points).

Death Valley Driver is in third, and holds the third highest point total (1336). But his continued sub-90 point weeks have left him very vulnerable. The fourth- and sixth-highest point totals are 1328.5 and 1309.5. (I left out Scrote Squad's 1310.5 because he's too far back in the loss column.) Fortunately for DVD, those totals belong to Jeff Fisher Effect and Pedro Pickles, on whom he has a two-win cushion. It’s unlikely, but if DVD continues his slide and Fisher Effect and/or Pickles wins out, he could end up the odd man out.

All the losses gave Panic Time Squad the best possible circumstance following his own loss; he’s tied by record with Iron Ryan, but has 130 more points. Iron Ryan needs to finish with a better record to get in. But he’s got a leg up on the 5-7 teams. The bad news: his stud from last week, Leonard Fournette, decided to punch another dude who was wearing a football helmet (which I’ll never understand, but I digress) and got himself suspended for a game. Iron Ryan goes up against Hardcore this week.

Pedro Pickles, Jeff Fisher Effect and Boobies (heh) are all 5-7, and none of them play each other in the final two weeks.  Pickles meets Dancin’ Dennis this week, while Fisher gets Panic Time, and Boobies (heh) gets DVD. If all three of those teams comes out of the week 6-7…. I’m gonna need some serious math skills to sort out the playoff scenarios in Week 14.

I mean, there’s a possibility we come out of this week with FIVE 6-7 teams, which would make the final week REALLY interesting.

The Color of Money

For the third time this year, the Tidwell was won with a half-point margin. This week, Dancin’ Dennis and his twin 97-yarders snaked in and grabbed the cash.

Other Neat Stuff

We scored exactly 1200 points in Week 12, our highest scoring week this season. In the two years for which I have complete data, it’s our highest scoring week ever. In fact, in 2017, we broke the 1000 points barrier six times. In 2018, we’ve topped 1000 points in all 12 weeks.  In 2017, the average weekly score per team was 97.07. This year, it’s 110.01. It’s an impressive increase for which I have no reasonable explanation. It can’t possibly be that we’re all better fantasy players this year. That’s not a plausible explanation…

**TRADE DEADLINE**
Our trade deadline is scheduled for Sunday, December 2 @ MIDNIGHT EST. Trades must be agreed to and submitted through ESPN by that time. I'll wake up and make sure the trades will go through so they can be reflected in your lineups for the Sunday games.

ILLUSTRATION
This is how I imagine you guys working the trade deadline:

And this is probably how it will actually go:

Dilly dilly,

Commish

P.S. I hope you enjoyed the GIFs this week, Ryan.

Week 11, or The One Released on Thanksgiving Day

It's Thanksgiving. So ready your breakfast and eat hearty...for this is the longest Notes of the year. I think. (unnecessary but fun Gerard Butler GIF)

Dancin’ Dennis Nedry (7-4) goes large, crashes Death Valley Driver (7-4), 127.5-113

Damn Dennis! Tyreek Hill might be the fastest human in the history of the world ever. He was dominant in that Monday Night Track Meet, even when Todd Gurley wasn’t. Both guys left points on the table this week: DDN sat Andrew Luck in favor of Ryan Fitzpatrick (a mistake he won’t make again because FitzTragic is benched again) and DVD sat T.Y. Hilton and his 33.5 points. Both at 7-4, they both seem set up well for a playoff run.

Pedro Pickles (5-6) continues run, tops Iron Ryan (5-6), 112-85

Iron Ryan came crashing back to Earth, even though Leonard Fournette decided to join the Jaguars, and Julio Jones has decided he’s no longer allergic to the end zone. But it’s hard to win when you only score 85 points, no matter who you’re playing. Pickles squeaked by even though he started Austin Ekeler and Derrick Henry, even though neither of the NFL teams that employs those players started them. Patrick Mahomes was the big eraser in this one; five turnovers in the game and he still managed 36 points.

Scrote Squad (3-8) dominates Panic Time Squad (6-5), 133.5-84.5

It’s sort of a mystery how Scrote is 3-8, given the talent on his roster. We all teased him (OK, at least a couple of us) for drafting Robert Woods where he did (4^th round) but he’s been a top 10 WR, and Christian McCaffrey has been good as well. He deserves better than to be 3-7 (but the same could be said of a few teams in the league). Panic Time might actually want to panic now. His RBs just give him nothing. He’s made it this far without, but he’s going to run into trouble in the next three weeks.

Hardcore Sacks 2.0 (9-2) stays on top, pops Team Provost (3-8)

Well, it wasn’t the same record-setting week for Hardcore, but it was just as convincing. Even a shitty week from John Brown and a donut week from Eric Ebron didn’t matter; when you have the only two weapons Aaron Rodgers seems to trust (Aaron Jones and Davante Adams), you’re in a good spot. Also, Drew Brees is just out of his mind right now. Provost managed over 100 points for the second week in a row, it just wasn’t enough, despite Saquon and Zeke doing everything they’re supposed to do. He just didn’t (and doesn’t) have any firepower at wide receiver.

The Jeff Fisher Effect (5-6) tops Released Dix On Boobies (5-6), 115-83

It was a solid day all around for Fisher Effect, who only lacked a double-digit scorer at TE and D/ST. Phillip Lindsay led the way for him, but he got the usual from Melvin Gordon and Michael Thomas. His struggle has been (and probably will continue to be) at QB. Boobies (heh) will basically go as far as Kareem Hunt and James Conner will carry him. Conner had a tough matchup with the Jags D and only managed 7 points. His WRs just aren’t very good.

The Push for the Playoffs

We have 4 teams who currently sit at 5-6 and are holding onto hope for that final playoff spot: Fisher Effect currently has the “lead” among the group based on points scored, followed by Pickles, Boobies (heh), and Iron Ryan (see the totals a bit further down). Here’s the quick breakdown of their remaining schedule (the parentheses is all-time record vs. that opponent).

	Week 12	Week 13	Week 14
Fisher Effect	vs. Iron Ryan (6-3)	vs. Panic  (1-7)	vs. Hardcore (3-3)
Pickles	vs. Scrote  (4-4)	vs. DDN (1-2)	vs. Kyle (2-1)
Boobies (heh)	vs. DDN (3-4)	vs. DVD (2-4)	vs. Provost (2-4)
Iron Ryan	vs. JFE (3-6)	vs. Hardcore (1-5)	vs. Panic (4-2)

A win this week is important for each of these guys, though only three of them could possibly have a win, since Fisher and Iron Ryan face-off. That’s really a must-win for both to maintain a chance. Boobies (heh) faces a “short-handed” Dancin’ Dennis this week (Gurley and Hill are on bye), and Pickles faces a Scrote Squad that honestly could be in this same 5-6 group with some better breaks; he’s scored more points than Boobies (heh) and Iron Ryan.

Speaking of points, here's how those 4 teams break down in terms of overall points:

Fisher Effect - 1223.5

Pickles - 1181.5 (-42)

Boobies (heh) - 1134 (-89.5)

Iron Ryan - 1037.5 (-186)

Iron Ryan basically need to win out and finish with a better record than all the others because it's unlikely he makes up even the 96.5 points between him and Boobies (heh). Fisher Effect's 42 point lead here is strong, but could be wiped out with one bad week at the wrong time; Pickles has the fire power to pull that off.

It should be pointed out that if the season ended today, none of these teams I've spent so much time talking about would be in the playoffs. Panic Time Squad is currently clinging to the 4-seed, much like this adorable kitty is clinging to this bed.

Panic Time faces Team Provost this week, before finishing out with JFE and Iron Ryan. That Week 13 matchup with Fisher Effect could be HUGE. His best chance would be to win out, so he won't have to worry about a points tiebreaker. 

The top 3 seeds currently belong to Hardcore, Dancin’ Dennis and DVD. If my math is correct, Hardcore has locked up a playoff spot at 9-2 and could match the best regular season record in league history (Pete went 12-2 in 2016). DDN and DVD are in great position for playoff spots; given their points scored, they’d have a tiebreaker over anyone who finishes with the same record right now. If they aren't locked in like Hardcore, they certainly have the best shot.

Another Week, Another Tidwell

Yeah yeah yeah, Hardcore won another Tidwell, his third consecutive. Ho hum.

Giving of Thanks

As I think I’ve probably done every year, I want to give thanks for you guys, the Smarter Than Phil Simms Fantasy Football League. I enjoy commissioning this league, and you guys make it easy and fun to be the commissioner. I’ve seen horror stories of leagues with shitty owners who make bad trades, break rules and guys who do their drafts from a boat (oh wait, that’s this league). The fantasy community is riddled with people who complain “Not in my league!” Well in this case, that’s a good thing. Bad, detached owners who don’t care about their team or the league? “Not in my league.”

Remember there are 3 games today (Thanksgiving) so set your lineups accordingly.

Last thing: when you guys read the notes and say to your self "Man, Nate does a really good job finding funny GIFs!" are you saying "GIF" with a soft G sound (like Jif, the peanut butter) or with the hard G sound (like God)?

Commish OUT!

Week 10, or The Muddy Middle Continues

Week 10 in Smarter Than Phil Simms meant...uh, football? I guess? The standings didn’t change a lot. Some teams got further away from the playoffs, while others improved their chances. But it's still a messy middle of the pack. And we had one all-time great week.

RECAPS!

Panic Time Squad (6-4) rides Beckham’s MNF performance to 125-113.5 victory over Dancin’ Dennis Nedry (6-4)

Panic Time can probably stop panicking now, thanks to two TDs from Odell Beckham on Monday night. Or maybe not. I mean, both his RBs combined to score 11 points. He’s gotten next to nothing from his RBs all year, and is still sitting in prime playoff position (more on that later). DDN just didn’t have the fire power this week, and lost Cooper Kupp to a torn ACL. He had several players on bye, and sat Andrew Luck for Ryan Fitzpatrick too, which didn’t help.

Pedro Pickles (4-6) motorboats Released Dix On Boobies (5-5), 100-81

I’m gonna be honest; while watching the Bills continue to put up points on Sunday, the ONLY thing about this matchup I was looking forward to was how few points the Jets D was going to score. Turns out they scored minus-7, or minus-1 point for every dollar of FAAB Pickles spent on them. But it didn’t matter, because Shady McCoy (24.5 points) torched that very same defense. It also didn’t matter because Boobies (heh) reverted to early season form and just didn’t have enough points available to him.

Hardcore Sacks 2.0 (8-2) smokes Scrote Squad (2-8), 187.5-123

David Johnson, Nick Chubb and Eric Ebron each had (at least) a rushing TD and a receiving TD, leading Hardcore to a new all-time league high score. Best part? He had big days from two guys on his bench and could have topped 200 points without much trouble with a few different plays. (not that anyone in their right mind is going to start Mitch Trubisky over Drew Brees. Ever.) Scrote got off to a good start with Christian McCaffrey’s Thursday night TD triad, but when the other team has THREE guys score THREE TDs? As they say in Italy…

The Jeff Fisher Effect (4-6) lucks out, tops Team Provost (3-7), 106-104

Trailing by 2.5 going into the Monday Night game, JFE needed George Kittle and the 49ers D to outscore Saquon. Thanks to Eli and Odell’s two TDs, Saquon didn’t go nuts, and Kittle and the Niners pulled it out for JFE. Andy Dalton did his best to torpedo his team (you know, like Andy Dalton does) in what could have been a shootout game against the Saints. Provost had a much more balanced attack than JFE, but it wasn’t quite enough.

Death Valley Driver (7-3) tops Iron Ryan (5-5), 97.5-86.5

Leonard Fournette returned from injury  and put up a big week for I.R., but it wasn’t enough. He put up another low score, but couldn’t win this week. Certainly didn’t help him that Tom Brady sucked this week. DVD continues to play down to his competition, but he picked up a win this week.

Updated standings

With 4 weeks to go in the regular season, things are starting to get intense. Hardcore maintains his grip on the #1 seed, and virtually nothing else changes in the playoff picture.

1. Hardcore Sacks
2. Death Valley Driver
3. Dancin’ Dennis Nedry
4. Panic Time Squad

The changes happen closer to that 4th spot, though the teams vying hardest for that spot were dealt a blow by DVD and PTSd winning. Boobies (heh) and Iron Ryan are 5-5 now, and Fisher Effect and Pedro Pickles are 4-6.

And wouldn’t you know: Fisher plays Boobies (heh) this week, and Iron Ryan faces off against Pickles. There’s a potential to see some separation in this middle pack. Or it might get worse.

With their respective losses, Provost drops to 3-7 and Scrote Squad to 2-8. Scrote probably doesn’t deserve to be 2-8, but I’m not sure how much better his record should be (his score this week would have beaten any other winner in the league but Panic). While these two haven’t been mathematically eliminated, they certainly have a tough road ahead to make the playoffs.

I’ll start really getting into playoff possibilities after next week.

Tidwell Award

Hardcore set a new league record for highest scoring week. You think someone else won the Tidwell? Show Tim the money for the second week in a row.

Rumble rumble

Chris, Tim, Ryan, Kyle and I had a good time at the Rumble Seat on Sunday. Sorry you other guys had to miss it, but I understand you each either had a really good reason or some other prior commitment. Or live in Colorado.

I’m glad we did it, and can’t wait to see everyone’s shining faces for our year-end banquet, probably at the Rumble Seat again. If you’ve got another idea for a location, please bring it up with the Commish.

On to Week 11!

Week 9er, or Couldn't Be Finer

Hey guys, look! The notes are out (a little closer to) on time this week!

So recaps? Yeah, let's do recaps.

Released Dix On Boobies (5-4) squeaks by Scrote Squad (2-7), 117-110

Two good scores from two squads that seem to be headed in opposite directions. Too bad for Scrote he didn’t have quite enough. Though it’s also somewhat lucky for Boobies (heh) that he pulled out the win despite getting a half-point from one of his RB spots. I guess when you get 59 from Kareem Hunt and James Conner, that half-point doesn’t matter much.

The Jeff Fisher Effect (3-6) chomps Pedro Pickles (3-6), 127-82.5

Pickles didn’t have much this week, thanks to injury (no Sony Michel) and ineffectiveness (LeSean McCoy is stuck playing for the Bills incredibly inept offense). Patrick Mahomes put up his usual week though. JFE’s team played up to potential this week, except for Matthew Stafford, who actually LOST 5 points and cost JFE a shot at the Tidwell Award. Oh well, there’s always next week.

Death Valley Driver (6-3) tops Team Provost (3-6), 98-78

Alvin Kamara and DeAndre Hopkins rescued an otherwise lackluster effort from DVD this week. He’s 6-3, and has the second most points scored, but also has a couple wins while scoring under 100 points, which isn’t the norm. (Which makes me wonder….gonna have to work on that as a research project.) He’s had a good combination of being lucky and good. Provost finally got something from Amari Cooper...but we’ll see if the Cowboys keep forcing that issue.

Hardcore Sacks 2.0 (7-2) holds on to first place, beats Panic Time Squad (5-4) 127.5-116

This victory is brought to Hardcore by quarterbacks. Drew Brees scored 30, and Nathan Peterman allowed the Bears defense to score 29 points. I have to ask this: how in the name of Jim Kelly and Jack Kemp do the Bills continue to allow Nathan Peterman to throw passes in the NFL? He’s completed as many passes to the opposition in his career as he has to his own team. Probably. Maybe he’s color blind. OR actually blind.

Iron Ryan (5-4) keeps rolling, dances on Dancin’ Dennis Nedry (6-3), 97-91

This one probably hurts a little for DDN: The Rams defense lost him 6 points, which wound up as the difference in this one. I.R. got big weeks from Josh Gordon and Julio Jones, who finally scored a touchdown. Todd Gurley ONLY scored 16 points this week for DDN, which is easily his lowest output of the year.

Show Me The Money!

Ok, not ME. But almost. In our closest ever race for the Tidwell, Hardcore topped Fisher Effect by .5 to win the money this week.

Playoff Snapshot

If the playoffs started today, here’s how the seedings would break down:

1. Hardcore
2. Dancin’ Dennis
3. DVD
4. PTSd

Panic Time gets the nod based on points scored. That 5-4 3-team mess in the middle should sort itself out a little bit by the end of the year. But look out for Fisher Effect, who is actually 4th in the league in points. He’s two games back, but if he can make up that ground, he might have the leg up after Week 14: points will matter every week from here on out.

Reminders

Our Trade Deadline is coming up: Trades can still happen through Week 12. The deadline is midnight Saturday before the Sunday games in Week 13. We haven't had as much action on this front as last year, but there's still plenty of time. 

Also: remember only players with the IR designation are eligible for that spot. No one has violated it since the last reminder, but I'm throwing it out there.

Week 8, or the One After Week 7

Guys, I apologize. I am been slacking in my Commissioner-ly duties and have not gotten notes to you. I haven't gotten the mid-season report to you. I have failed.

I do, however, feel good about myself not failing as bad as Roger Goodell. I mean, at least our league doesn't have absolutely ridiculous and damn near impossible to enforce rules and penalties. Nevertheless, it's supposed to be fun and I haven't been able to be as fun as I have been.

What has been fun is the GroupMe of late. I'm not sure what pro-Cowboys blog Kevin has been reading, but I need some more of that positivity in my life. I mean, there's nothing that says Amari Cooper won't end up being worth a first-round pick. But when you compare him to Golden Tate and Demaryius Thomas in terms of talent and body of work, I'm still not sure the 6 year age gap is worth the two or three rounds of draft position the Cowboys gave up. So far, Cooper hasn't really lived up to the hype. But I'd love to be proven wrong. And draft him in the 8th round next year (instead of in the 3rd round as Provost did) and have a stud WR. But history says it won't happen. Not with Dak as the QB and Jason Garrett as a head coach. 

Let me get in some quickie recaps from last week. Our top 4 teams all played each other, which basically served to muddle the standings just a little bit more. Though looking at the teams, it seems pretty clear we have an obvious top 4, then everyone else. The cool part is that any of the top 4 right now could win the title. There is no clear favorite in my mind, which is different than the last two years when there seemed to be two juggernauts at the same point in the season.

Dancin' Dennis topped Hardcore 133.5-97. If Todd Gurley keeps scoring TDs at this rate, DDN is going to be tough to beat. 

Panic Time Squad blasted Death Valley Driver 135.5-106, winning the Tidwell award for the week. PTSd continues to win despite starting Isaiah Crowell, and having basically NO RB1s on his roster.He's hoping Kenyan Drake emerges from his slumber and becomes a prince, but in Miami, who knows?

Pedro Pickles clobbered Iron Ryan 111.5-69 (nice). Pickles finally got some production from Sammy Watkins, which was probably a bit lucky, but hey...he didn't really need it this week. Alex Collins hasn't rushed for more than 68 yards yet, but is scoring just enough TDs for I.R. to have to keep playing him.

Boobies (heh) crushed Provost 122-74.5. I'm pretty sure I was ready to have Boobies (heh) his second straight Worst "title" just a few weeks ago...but then, his team apparently woke up and he can't be stopped. James Conner is REALLY helping, and is the early pick for his keeper next year. Provost, well, his team just isn't good, despite having Saquon and Zeke.

And in the battle of bottom feeders, Scrote Squad beat Jeff Fisher 122.5-114.5. Well done on Fisher's part to spend all that FAAB money on Marlon Mack and then SIT HIM ON THE BENCH! Looks like these two might be battling it out for the Worst this year....

Again, guy, I apologize. I'm back on paternity leave which means I don't have down time at work to write the notes. You WILL have Week 9 notes in a much more timely fashion.

Also, it's almost 8am at my house and I'm the only one NOT sleeping. This is pretty weird.

Commish OUT!